Smart money
Where the whales and smart money are positioned
Across the 50 most active Polymarket markets, 17 currently carry adirectional signal from wallets that are either very large or consistently profitable, read directly from on-chain trades, not from what anyone says. No venue publishes this about its own traders, and no odds-comparison site has an equivalent.
Snapshot
Strongest signals right now
40 of the 50 busiest live Polymarket markets, strongest signal first. Score runs from −2 to +2 (whales plus smart money); “Too thin” means fewer than two distinct wallets or too little volume to read a direction. A signal is a statement about positioning, not a forecast.
How a wallet qualifies as smart money
- Whale: lifetime volume of at least $100k, or three or more trades of $10k+ in the last seven days. Recomputed hourly.
- Smart money: a win rate of 55% or better over at least 20 trades, at least $10k traded, and positive realised P&L; then a composite score combining win rate, P&L, volume and trade count has to clear a threshold. Recomputed every two hours.
- A market signal is the net direction of recent trades from those flagged wallets only, which is why it can be read cheaply, and why a market with none of them trading shows nothing.
Why only CoinStats can build this
Polymarket settles on-chain, so every wallet's trades are public. CoinStats already runs the wallet-tracking and P&L machinery to read them, and no venue has a reason to publish which of its own customers are profitable. That combination, public trades plus the infrastructure to score them, is not something an odds-comparison site or a sports-media affiliate has.
Known limitations
- Polymarket only. Kalshi is a centralised exchange and publishes no per-user data, so there is nothing to read. These signals describe one venue.
- The flags cover the wallets CoinStats syncs: Polymarket's 300 most profitable traders, and any wallet looked up in the Polymarket wallet tracker, which shows a wallet's positions and trades. A profitable wallet outside both sets carries no flag.
- Positioning is not prediction. Profitable wallets are wrong regularly; a strong signal tells you where informed money sits, not where the price is going.
- The snapshot refreshes every five minutes and covers the 50 most active markets; a quiet market never appears.
Common questions
What counts as a whale?
A wallet with at least $100k of lifetime volume, or one that has placed three or more $10k+ trades in the last seven days. The flag is recomputed hourly from on-chain trades.
Does a bullish signal mean the price will rise?
No. It means wallets that are large or consistently profitable have been net buyers of Yes recently. Such wallets are wrong regularly; the signal is information about positioning, not a forecast.
Why are there no Kalshi signals?
Kalshi is a centralised exchange and publishes no per-user trade data, so there is no positioning to read. Every signal here is Polymarket.