Smart money
Where the whales and smart money are positioned
Across the 50 most active Polymarket markets, 2 currently carry adirectional signal from wallets that are either very large or consistently profitable, read directly from on-chain trades, not from what anyone says. No venue publishes this about its own traders, and no odds-comparison site has an equivalent.
Snapshot
Strongest signals right now
40 of the 50 busiest live Polymarket markets, strongest signal first. Score runs from −2 to +2 (whales plus smart money); “Too thin” means fewer than two distinct wallets or too little volume to read a direction. A signal is a statement about positioning, not a forecast.
How a wallet qualifies as smart money
- Whale: lifetime volume of at least $100k, or three or more trades of $10k+ in the last seven days. Recomputed hourly.
- Smart money: a win rate of 55% or better over at least 20 trades, at least $10k traded, and positive realised P&L; then a composite score combining win rate, P&L, volume and trade count has to clear a threshold. Recomputed every two hours.
- A market signal is the net direction of recent trades from those flagged wallets only, which is why it can be read cheaply, and why a market with none of them trading shows nothing.
Why only CoinStats can build this
Polymarket settles on-chain, so every wallet's trades are public. CoinStats already runs the wallet-tracking and P&L machinery to read them, and no venue has a reason to publish which of its own customers are profitable. That combination, public trades plus the infrastructure to score them, is not something an odds-comparison site or a sports-media affiliate has.
Known limitations
- Polymarket only. Kalshi is a centralised exchange and publishes no per-user data, so there is nothing to read. These signals describe one venue.
- The smart-money flag and the leaderboard use different formulas, so the set of wallets in this table and the set on the traders leaderboard can disagree.
- Positioning is not prediction. Profitable wallets are wrong regularly; a strong signal tells you where informed money sits, not where the price is going.
- The snapshot refreshes every five minutes and covers the 50 most active markets; a quiet market never appears.
Common questions
What counts as a whale?
A wallet with at least $100k of lifetime volume, or one that has placed three or more $10k+ trades in the last seven days. The flag is recomputed hourly from on-chain trades.
Does a bullish signal mean the price will rise?
No. It means wallets that are large or consistently profitable have been net buyers of Yes recently. Such wallets are wrong regularly; the signal is information about positioning, not a forecast.
Why are there no Kalshi signals?
Kalshi is a centralised exchange and publishes no per-user trade data, so there is no positioning to read. Every signal here is Polymarket.