Build with CoinStats’ all-in-one API. Learn more

Deutsch한국어日本語中文EspañolFrançaisՀայերենNederlandsРусскийItalianoPortuguêsTürkçePortfolio TrackerCryptocurrenciesPricingCrypto APIMCPIntegrationsNewsRWA MarketEarnBlogNFTWidgetsDeFi Portfolio TrackerDerivativesETF FlowsCrypto GamingPrediction Markets24h ReportPress KitAPI Docs

S&P 500 vs. Bitcoin - Accounting for inflation / Money Printing. Thought Experiment. A light perspective from your average bitcoiner. Is bitcoin still out-performing S&P using M2 as a metric?

bullish:

0

bearish:

0

Share

Forenote: I'm going to be choosing some cherry-picked data that fits a near-perfect timeline: a little bit over 4 years ago today.

https://i.imgur.com/He6KEVC.png - The S&P 500 September 7th, 2018 - $2871.68. Modern day: $3585.62
https://i.imgur.com/EXjKOCq.png - Bitcoin September 7th, 2018 - $6188.00. Modern day: $19,323.60

Back then, mention of a recession was passive in a sense like, "Oh, well, we usually have a recession once every decade. We're almost overdue for one now."

18 months later, covid hits America and we start printing money (that largely goes to bankers and benefits mega-corporations).

The M2 money supply: https://i.imgur.com/M8L9jcG.png

Inflation: This is hard to actually quantify because the CPI report is based on the average price of an ever-changing basket of cherry-picked goods, that conveniently disregards gas and oil. Let's humor the last CPI report released at the FOMC and say that it is 8.3%. Others say it is as much as 20%. Let's use both spectrums for a thought experiment.

If we go with the 8.3% figure of $3585.62, this means The S&P 500 is actually valued at an actual value of $3,288.02 in "2018 dollars".

However, if we go with the 20% figure that would mean the value of the S&P 500 would be valued at $2868.50 in "2018 dollars".

Now let's apply the same logic to Bitcoin:

Bitcoin is at $19,323.60 USD. That is nearly 3x the price that it was 4 years ago.

Accounting for 8.3% inflation, bitcoin would be worth $17,719.75 in "2018 dollars."

And the 20% figure?, that would put Bitcoin at $15,458.88.

Just some food for thought. If bitcoin goes lower, I'll definitely buy more. For the record, this is cherry-picked data. I'm sure there are companies in the S&P 500 that performed well, as the S&P 500 is itself a basket of companies that gets added and removed regularly.

submitted by /u/sgtslaughterTV
[link] [comments]
bullish:

0

bearish:

0

Share
Manage all your crypto, NFT and DeFi from one place

Securely connect the portfolio you’re using to start.

Where will Bitcoin trade next?

Live Polymarket and Kalshi odds on Bitcoin price targets, compared side by side.

See Bitcoin price odds