Bitcoin News: What Four Midterm Elections Reveal About BTC Price

Bitcoin News: BTC Price at $77K as the US Midterms Arrive Tomorrow

Bitcoin fell between 27% and 72% after each of the last four US midterm elections, according to analyst Ali Martinez, and the next vote is tomorrow. BTC price today is near $77.9K. 

Source: X Official 

The latest Bitcoin News today sets out what that history shows, what it cannot prove, and why the Fed rate decision and ETF flows matter alongside it.

Bitcoin Price Today: Market Cap, Volume and Fear Reading

Bitcoin news today begins with a calm price chart before a busy week. Current numbers as of November 2, per CoinMarketCap:

• BTC price: $77,984.42, up 0.05% in 24 hours

• Seven-day move: down 3.01%

• Market cap: $1.56T

• 24-hour volume: $14.68B, up 21.52%

• 24-hour range: roughly $77,600 to $78,600

• Crypto market today: $2.62T total value, Fear and Greed index at 36

The Bitcoin update today from derivatives is similar. Open interest rose 4.99% to $298.25B, a sign that more positions are open going into the vote, per market data.

Bitcoin News Today: Four Midterms, Four Big Drops and the Fine Print

The worry ahead of the US midterms 2026 comes from Martinez, who posts as Ali Charts. In a previous thread on X, he noted that BTC fell 72%, 65%, 52% and 27% after the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 votes. The next vote is scheduled for November 3 2026, and fourth-quarter returns tell a similar story:

• Q4 2010: up 391%

• Q4 2014: down 16.70%

• Q4 2018: down 42.16%

• Q4 2022: down 14.75%

Martinez says this does not prove the elections caused those drops. The sample is only four cycles, and the 2018 and 2022 slides overlapped with the Bitcoin Cash fork and the FTX collapse. 

He names $73,000, the average cost of recent buyers per Glassnode data, as the level to follow if a pullback arrives. That sits about 6% below today’s BTC price.

Fed Rate Decision and Bitcoin: Why December Hike Odds Matter Most

Bitcoin crypto news does not end with the vote. The Fed is the second pressure point. According to the FOMC statement, it held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October in a 10-2 vote, with two members preferring a hike. 

The Federal Reserve next meeting is 8–9 December, and market pricing puts the odds of a quarter-point hike near 71%.

Source: Polymarket Official

Higher rates tend to cool appetite for risk, and Bitcoin often moves on expectations before the decision itself. A review of past decisions finds that reactions vary widely, so no simple rule applies.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows: What Fund Flows Say Before the Midterms

Bitcoin news today also includes fund flows. Spot Bitcoin ETF products recorded net outflows of $643.33M on 30 October, per SoSoValue:

• IBIT (BlackRock): outflow of $233.70M

• FBTC (Fidelity): outflow of $201.04M

• ARKB (Ark and 21Shares): outflow of $129.55M

• Cumulative net inflow: $56.98B since launch

Cumulative inflows stay large, so the funds remain net buyers overall. Still, a day of heavy selling just before a vote shows that some investors chose to cut exposure.

Tomorrow’s count starts a chain of tests: the vote first, then the Fed on 8 to 9 December. Bitcoin News in the coming weeks will show whether history repeats or ends as a footnote of four cycles. Bitcoin latest news on ETF flows and the $73,000 level that Martinez follows will say more than any chart pattern.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Crypto markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.