Bitcoin and the US Midterm Elections Report: Price History From 2010 to 2026

Bitcoin has gone through four US midterm elections. After the three with a real market, BTC was up 23% (2014), 45% (2018), and 93% (2022) one year later, an average of about 54%. The first month was weaker, with drops of 45.5% after 2018 and 7% after 2022. The 2026 midterms are on November 3, 2026, with BTC at $76,681, 39% below its peak. Prediction markets give Democrats a 93.6% to 95% chance of winning the House and 76% for the Senate. Crypto super PACs have spent more than in any earlier midterm, and the main crypto bill is stuck in the Senate.

Key Facts

Question	Answer
2026 election day	Tuesday, November 3, 2026
What is on the ballot	All 435 House seats and 35 of 100 Senate seats
Who controls Congress now	Republicans hold the House and the Senate (53 to 47)
Odds that Democrats win the House	95% on Polymarket (04:50 UTC), 93.6% on Kalshi (05:04 UTC), Nov 3
Odds that Democrats win the Senate	76% on Polymarket and on Kalshi (04:51 UTC, Nov 3)
BTC daily close, November 2, 2026	$76,681, which is 38.6% below the $124,824 peak close of October 6, 2025
BTC one year after a midterm	+23% (2014), +45% (2018), +93% (2022)
BTC in the month after a midterm	+12% (2014), -46% (2018), -7% (2022)
BTC in midterm years	-56% (2014), -74% (2018), -64% (2022), -12% so far in 2026
Crypto super PAC spending in 2026	About $150.8 million by Fairshake and its affiliates through October 20, 2026
Main crypto bill at stake	CLARITY Act (market structure). Passed the House, failed a Senate cloture vote 49 to 50

What a US Midterm Election Is?

A midterm is the US national election held two years after a presidential election. The president is not on the ballot. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives and about one-third of the 100 senators.

Midterms decide which party controls Congress, and Congress writes the laws on crypto market structure, stablecoins, and taxes. In 2026, Republicans hold both chambers under President Donald Trump. A loss of either chamber would split power in Washington for the last two years of his term.

BTC Returns After Every US Midterm

The base in this table is the BTC daily close on election day. Each column shows the change after the given number of calendar days.

Midterm	Election-day close	+1 day	+7 days	+30 days	+90 days	+180 days	+365 days
2010 (Nov 2)	about $0.19	-0.4%	+12.1%	+31.6%	+171%	+1,497%	+1,580%
2014 (Nov 4)	$329.66	+2.8%	+11.6%	+11.9%	-27.2%	-27.1%	+23%
2018 (Nov 6)	$6,441.15	+0.9%	-2.7%	-45.5%	-47%	-11.1%	+45.2%
2022 (Nov 8)	$18,520.97	-14.9%	-9%	-7%	+22.8%	+55.3%	+93.3%
Average 2014 to 2022	Not applicable	-3.7%	0%	-13.5%	-17.1%	+5.7%	+53.8%

StealthEX graphic. Data: Coin Metrics, as of November 3, 2026

The 2010 midterm is left out of the averages. Bitcoin was less than two years old and traded for under 20 cents.

BTC was higher one year later after all three midterms with a real market. The short term was mixed. In 2018 and 2022, BTC was lower 30 days after election day, and in 2014 and 2018 it was still lower after 180 days. The big gains came in the second half of the year after the vote.

Before the Vote and the Worst Drawdown After It

A drawdown is the fall from a high point to a later low point. The “before” columns show the change from that day to election day.

Midterm	90 days before	30 days before	Below prior all-time high	Lowest close within 365 days	Highest close within 365 days
2014	-43.4%	+2.1%	-71%	$175.64, Jan 14, 2015 (-46.7%)	$422.59, Nov 12, 2014 (+28.2%)
2018	+2.8%	-1.9%	-67.2%	$3,185.07, Dec 15, 2018 (-50.6%)	$12,863, Jun 26, 2019 (+99.7%)
2022	-22.6%	-4.7%	-72.6%	$15,758, Nov 9, 2022 (-14.9%)	$35,798, Nov 8, 2023 (+93.3%)
2026	+18.7%	-11.4%	-38.6%	Not known yet	Not known yet

StealthEX graphic. Data: Coin Metrics, as of November 3, 2026

Each Midterm, One by One

2010: Republicans Take the House

Republicans won 63 House seats and took the House from the Democrats under President Barack Obama. Democrats kept the Senate. BTC closed election day at about 19 cents and reached about $3 a year later, when the first exchanges had been open for only months.

2014: Republicans Take the Senate

Republicans gained 9 Senate seats, took the Senate and kept the House. BTC was in a bear market after the Mt. Gox exchange filed for bankruptcy on February 28, 2014.

BTC rose 28% in the eight days after the vote, to $422.59 on November 12. It then fell to the cycle low of $175.64 on January 14, 2015, 71 days after election day. One year later BTC was up 23%.

2018: Democrats Take the House

Democrats gained 41 seats and took the House. Republicans kept the Senate and gained 2 seats, in Trump’s first term.

BTC fell 45.5% in the 30 days after the vote. The trigger came from inside crypto: the Bitcoin Cash hard fork on November 15, 2018 split the community and pushed miners and traders to sell. BTC hit its cycle low of $3,185.07 on December 15, 2018. One year after the vote, BTC was up 45%.

2022: Republicans Take the House, Democrats Keep the Senate

Republicans took the House 222 to 213 under President Joe Biden, and Democrats kept the Senate 51 to 49. The Associated Press called the Senate on November 12 and the House on November 16.

The vote fell in the middle of the FTX collapse. On election day, November 8, Binance signed a non-binding offer to buy FTX. It walked away on November 9, and FTX filed for bankruptcy on November 11. BTC fell 14.9% in one day, to $15,758, the low close of the whole cycle. One year later BTC was up 93%.

The 2024 Presidential Election, for Contrast

All three presidential elections since 2016 came in the year of a halving or the year after. A halving is the scheduled cut in new bitcoin supply every 210,000 blocks, about every four years.

Election	Election-day close	+30 days	+90 days	+180 days	+365 days
2016 presidential (Nov 8)	$711.84	+7.8%	+43.8%	+114.4%	+946.8%
2020 presidential (Nov 3)	$13,996.92	+39.1%	+139.8%	+304.2%	+349.8%
2024 presidential (Nov 5)	$69,538.02	+39.4%	+46.1%	+35.7%	+49.4%

After Trump’s win on November 5, 2024, BTC rose 8.9% in one day and 26.6% in one week. It broke its March 2024 high of $73,082 within days. No midterm has had a first month like that.

Why Midterms Have Come in Bitcoin’s Bear Phase

Every midterm since 2014 landed in the same part of the bitcoin cycle. BTC peaked 12 to 18 months after each halving and then fell for about a year. Each midterm came 23 to 31 months after a halving and 11 to 13 months after the cycle peak.

StealthEX graphic. Data: Coin Metrics, as of November 3, 2026 

Cycle	Halving	Halving to midterm	Peak close	Peak to midterm	Cycle low close	Midterm to low	Peak to low
2012 to 2015	Nov 28, 2012	706 days	$1,134.93 (Dec 4, 2013)	335 days	$175.64 (Jan 14, 2015)	71 days	-84.5%
2016 to 2018	Jul 9, 2016	850 days	$19,640.51 (Dec 16, 2017)	325 days	$3,185.07 (Dec 15, 2018)	39 days	-83.8%
2020 to 2022	May 11, 2020	911 days	$67,541.76 (Nov 8, 2021)	365 days	$15,758 (Nov 9, 2022)	1 day	-76.7%
2024 to 2026	Apr 20, 2024	927 days	$124,824.45 (Oct 6, 2025)	393 days	$58,525.08 (Jun 30, 2026)	126 days before	-53.1% so far

BTC fell 56% in 2014, 74% in 2018 and 64% in 2022. The years after were all positive: +34% in 2015, +94% in 2019 and +156% in 2023. The cycle low came within 71 days of every midterm, so the election and the bottom fell close together.

That link rests on three cases, and all three sat in the same part of the halving cycle. The biggest moves had their own crypto causes in Mt. Gox, the Bitcoin Cash fork and FTX. Split control of Congress followed the 2010, 2018 and 2022 midterms, and BTC was higher a year later each time.

The S&P 500 Pattern That Investors Watch

The S&P 500 has been higher one year after every midterm since 1950, based on daily index closes.

StealthEX graphic. Data: S&P 500 index daily closes via Yahoo Finance, as of November 3, 2026 

Midterm	12 months after	Midterm	12 months after	Midterm	12 months after
1950	+16.2%	1978	+6.4%	2002	+14.9%
1954	+33.2%	1982	+19.9%	2006	+6.7%
1958	+11.1%	1986	+1.1%	2010	+3.7%
1962	+24.8%	1990	+25.1%	2014	+4.5%
1966	+12.9%	1994	+27.1%	2018	+11.7%
1970	+12.7%	1998	+22%	2022	+14.5%
1974	+18.7%	Average	+15.1%	Median	+14.5%

The average was +15.1%, about double the +7.3% in other years. Hartford Funds reports almost the same result. In the four Bitcoin-era midterms, the S&P gained between 3.7% and 14.5%. The index closed November 2, 2026 at 7,541.4, up 10.2% this year, while BTC is down 12.4%.

What Is Different in 2026

StealthEX graphic. Data: Polymarket, Kalshi, Coin Metrics, FEC, Congress.gov, as of November 3, 2026  

BTC is 38.6% below its peak close. On the last three midterm days it was 67% to 73% below. The 2026 low close so far is $58,525.08 on June 30, 126 days before the vote. In every earlier cycle the low came after the midterm. BTC is up 31% from that low.

The cycle is also longer. The peak came 534 days after the April 2024 halving, and the vote comes 927 days after it. Spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, and the US created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by executive order on March 6, 2025. Neither existed in 2014, 2018 or 2022.

StealthEX graphic. Data: Coin Metrics, as of November 3, 2026

Prediction Markets on the 2026 Midterms

A prediction market lets people buy contracts that pay $1 if an event happens and nothing if it does not. A price of 95 cents reads as a 95% chance.

House and Senate Odds on Election Day

Market (Democrats win)	Polymarket	Kalshi	PredictIt
House	95% (04:50 UTC)	93.6% (05:04 UTC)	93 cents, last trade (04:53 UTC)
Senate	76% (04:51 UTC)	76% (04:51 UTC)	77 cents, last trade (04:53 UTC)
Volume, House market	$42,025,681	$233,122,335	Not published
Volume, Senate market	$17,927,911	$166,438,357	Not published

All times are November 3, 2026. Both big venues price a Democratic House at 93.6% or more and a Democratic Senate at 76%. Republicans keeping the House is priced at 6% to 6.4%.

Polymarket House 2026 market, as of November 3, 2026. Source: Polymarket

Kalshi House 2026 market, as of November 3, 2026. Source: Kalshi

Polymarket Senate 2026 market, as of November 3, 2026. Source: Polymarket

Kalshi Senate 2026 market, as of November 3, 2026. Source: Kalshi

The Polymarket balance of power market has $60.4 million traded. A Democratic sweep of both chambers was priced at 75.5% at about 04:50 UTC. A Republican Senate with a Democratic House was at 18.5%, a Republican sweep at 5.5% and a Democratic Senate with a Republican House at 0.45%.

The Senate Races That Decide Control

Prices below are for the leading candidate, at about 04:50 UTC (Polymarket) and 04:52 UTC (Kalshi, midpoint of bid and ask) on November 3.

State	Leader on Polymarket	Kalshi	Polymarket volume
Texas	James Talarico (D) 74.5% vs Ken Paxton (R)	73.5%	$12.97 million
Michigan	Abdul El-Sayed (D) 80.5% vs Mike Rogers (R)	78.5%	$8.45 million
Maine	Troy Jackson (D) 73.5% vs Susan Collins (R)	73.5%	$3.71 million
Ohio	Sherrod Brown (D) 72.5% vs Jon Husted (R)	71.5%	$2.81 million
Alaska	Mary Peltola (D) 72.5% vs Dan Sullivan (R)	69.5%	$2.74 million
Nebraska	Pete Ricketts (R) 69.5% vs Dan Osborn (I)	66.5%	$2.54 million
Iowa	Josh Turek (D) 52.5% vs Ashley Hinson (R)	52.5%	$2.19 million

Iowa is the closest race on both venues. Ohio and Nebraska draw the most crypto PAC money. In Ohio the PAC-backed Husted is at 28% on Polymarket, and in Nebraska the PAC-opposed Osborn is at 28.5%.

How the Odds Moved Before the Vote

StealthEX graphic. Data: Polymarket, Kalshi, as of November 3, 2026

The House market opened on Polymarket in July 2025 at 70% for Democrats. It dipped to 61.5% on October 15, 2025, crossed 85% in August 2026 and reached 95% on election day.

The Senate moved much more. Democrats were at 26.5% on Polymarket on October 15, 2025 and at 76% on election day. The price first crossed 50% in mid-March 2026, fell back to 41.5% on July 1 and rose from 62.5% on October 1. In the last three weeks it climbed from 63.5% (October 15) to 76%. Kalshi shows the same path, from 62% on October 14 to 76%.

How Much Money Is Riding on the Midterms

Polymarket listed 1,274 open midterm events with $343.8 million in total volume at about 04:50 UTC on November 3. The largest single events are the balance of power market with $60.4 million, the Senate tossup states market with $57.4 million and the California governor race with $44.3 million.

Kalshi showed $233.1 million in volume on its House control market at 05:04 UTC and $166.4 million on its Senate market at 04:51 UTC, about $400 million for the two. That is more than six times Polymarket’s $60 million on the same two questions.

How Accurate Were Prediction Markets in 2022 and 2024?

Election	Question	Election-eve price	Result	Favorite won?
2022	Republicans win the House	Polymarket 89%, PredictIt 94%	Republicans won 222 to 213	Yes
2022	Republicans win the Senate	Polymarket 72%, PredictIt 80%	Democrats kept it 51 to 49	No
2022	Senate races in GA, NV and PA	Republicans favored in all three	Democrats won all three	No
2024	Trump wins the presidency	Polymarket 59%, Kalshi 55%	Trump won	Yes

The 2022 prices come from a DraftKings Network tracker, and the state misses from an analysis of 2022 Senate forecasts. FiveThirtyEight missed the same three states. The 2024 prices come from a study in the ACM Collective Intelligence proceedings.

In 2022, the markets got the House right and the Senate wrong, with Republicans priced at 72% to 80%. A study of 2,500 markets in 2024 found election-eve accuracy of 93% on PredictIt, 78% on Kalshi and 67% on Polymarket across all active political markets. A 76% favorite still loses about one time in four.

Polymarket, Kalshi and the Crypto Link

Feature	Polymarket International	Polymarket US	Kalshi
Who can trade	Users outside the US and other restricted places	US users, except Nevada	US users
Regulator	No US license	CFTC-designated exchange, run by QCX LLC	CFTC-designated exchange
Money used	pUSD on Polygon, backed 1:1 by USDC	US dollars	US dollars
Who holds the funds	Non-custodial, funds stay in the user’s wallet	Held under a regulated clearing house	Held by the exchange

Polymarket’s international site settles every trade in pUSD, a token on the Polygon network backed by USDC. Its deposit page accepts native USDC or bridged USDC.e and wraps either into pUSD. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Tron deposits are converted to pUSD automatically.

Polymarket’s international site blocks US traders. Its help center says US residents cannot deposit or trade there. Americans can use Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange with identity checks on every account. Polymarket bought the QCEX exchange to return to the US at the end of 2025, and its transparency page says the US exchange has been fully live since May 2026.

Kalshi won the court fight that opened US election trading. On September 12, 2024, Judge Jia Cobb ruled that the CFTC had no legal basis to block Kalshi’s congressional control contracts. The CFTC dropped its appeal in May 2025. Kalshi had no election contracts in 2022.

The state fights in 2026 are about sports contracts. The Ninth Circuit ruled against Kalshi in Nevada on August 28, 2026 and sent the election contract question back to the lower court. The Sixth Circuit ruled on September 25 that Ohio and Tennessee can apply their gambling laws to Kalshi’s sports contracts. Three petitions are pending at the Supreme Court, and on October 19 the CFTC proposed a rule that would define sports and political event contracts as swaps under its own control.

Crypto Markets Tied to Election Week

Traders also price bitcoin and crypto laws around the vote. Polymarket’s November bitcoin price market has $2.1 million traded. BTC reaching $80,000 at any point in November was at 69.5% at about 04:50 UTC. A dip to $70,000 was at 38.5%, $90,000 at 12.5% and a fall to $60,000 at 8.5%.

A separate Polymarket market priced BTC above $76,000 at noon ET (17:00 UTC) on November 6 at 64%, and above $80,000 at 18%. A Polymarket market on the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 traded at 2.55%, with $24.8 million in volume. On Kalshi, a crypto market structure law before January 1, 2027 was at 6.2% to 6.3%. It rises to 17% to 19% before July 1, 2027 and 31% to 33% before January 1, 2028.

What Each Result Could Mean for Crypto

The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) would set rules for crypto trading and move oversight of many tokens from the SEC to the CFTC. The House passed it 294 to 134 on July 17, 2025. On September 15, 2026, a Senate cloture vote failed 49 to 50. Cloture is the vote needed to end debate, and it takes 60 votes.

Senator Thom Tillis entered a motion to reconsider, so the bill can still pass before the current Congress ends on January 3, 2027. Stablecoins already have a federal law, the GENIUS Act, signed on July 18, 2025. Its rules take effect on January 18, 2027, according to a tracker of crypto licensing deadlines by country that covers 77 jurisdictions.

Result (Polymarket odds)	CLARITY and market structure	SEC and CFTC	Stablecoins
Democratic House and Senate (75.5%)	Reuters reports the bill “faces an uphill battle” if Democrats win either chamber. Likely chairs Waters, Shontel Brown, Warren and Michael Bennet all hold “F” grades from Stand With Crypto, per CoinDesk	Without CLARITY, agency rules set under Trump can be reversed by a later administration, JPMorgan analysts told Reuters. CoinDesk expects probes of Trump family crypto deals	The GENIUS Act stays law
Republican Senate, Democratic House (18.5%)	Maxine Waters would likely chair House Financial Services. She said no crypto bill should pass until Congress ends “the President’s crypto profiteering”	The Senate, which confirms SEC and CFTC nominees, stays Republican	The GENIUS Act stays law
Republican House and Senate (5.5%)	French Hill, chair of House Financial Services, stays. The bill still needs 60 Senate votes, and the September vote got 49	Republicans keep the Senate votes on SEC and CFTC nominees	The GENIUS Act stays law
Democratic Senate, Republican House (0.45%)	Elizabeth Warren could chair Senate Banking, per CoinDesk	Senate Democrats would control votes on SEC and CFTC nominees	The GENIUS Act stays law

Many House Democrats voted for CLARITY in July 2025. All 32 House candidates Fairshake backs in 2026 voted for it, and 13 of them are Democrats.

Crypto Super PAC Money in 2026

A super PAC is a political committee that can raise and spend unlimited money on ads but cannot coordinate with campaigns.

How Much Fairshake Has Raised and Spent

Fairshake’s FEC page shows total receipts of $138,243,957.16 and contributions of $99,111,633.15 for January 1, 2025 to October 14, 2026. Most of its spending runs through two affiliates. Defend American Jobs backs Republicans and Protect Progress backs Democrats.

Fairshake FEC financial summary, 2025 to 2026, as of November 3, 2026. Source: FEC

Committee	Independent expenditures, Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Defend American Jobs	$88.32 million
Protect Progress	$29.2 million
Fairshake	$19.41 million
Total	$136.93 million

Through October 20, Fairshake and its affiliates spent about $150.8 million on the midterms, and other crypto groups about $25 million, Reuters reported. The industry total of about $176 million covers more than 100 races. Public Citizen called crypto the biggest corporate spender in federal races in 2026.

The Races With the Most Crypto Money

Ohio is the biggest fight. FEC data show Defend American Jobs spent about $56.6 million there to October 14, with $36.9 million for Republican Jon Husted and $19.7 million against Democrat Sherrod Brown. AdImpact counts more than $68 million of crypto money in the race. Brown leads 72.5% on Polymarket.

In Nebraska, Defend American Jobs spent about $13.5 million against independent Dan Osborn. In Illinois, Fairshake spent more than $10.1 million against Senate candidate Juliana Stratton, Reuters reported. Fairshake backs only Republicans in 2026 Senate races, after Senate Democrats blocked CLARITY.

In the House, CNBC reported on October 5 that the network backs 32 incumbents, 19 Republicans and 13 Democrats. It committed at least $1 million each to six of them, including French Hill and Bill Huizenga, the chair and vice chair of House Financial Services. Fairshake said 53 of the 58 candidates it backed in 2026 primaries or special elections won.

The 2024 Record

Fairshake spent $196 million in the 2024 cycle, according to Reuters. Its largest win was the defeat of Sherrod Brown, then chair of Senate Banking, after about $40 million in spending for Bernie Moreno.

OpenSecrets counts 23 wins among the 28 general-election candidates Fairshake supported, an 82% success rate. By money, the rate was 89.2%. In the 2024 primaries, CNBC counted 33 wins in 35 races. Most were safe seats, where the primary winner was likely to win in November.

Election Night: Times, Calls and the BTC Reaction

Poll Closing Times

US clocks moved back on November 1, so ET is now UTC minus 5 hours.

Time	What happens
6 p.m. ET Nov 3 (23:00 UTC)	First polls close, in parts of Indiana and Kentucky
7 p.m. ET (00:00 UTC Nov 4)	Polls close in Georgia, Virginia and other states. The BTC daily close for November 3 is set
7:30 p.m. ET (00:30 UTC Nov 4)	Polls close in Ohio and North Carolina
8 to 10 p.m. ET (01:00 to 03:00 UTC Nov 4)	Most other states close, including Texas, Michigan, Maine, Iowa and Nebraska
11 p.m. ET (04:00 UTC Nov 4)	California and other West Coast states close
1 a.m. ET (06:00 UTC Nov 4)	The last polls close in Alaska
Nov 6, 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 UTC)	US jobs report for October
Dec 8 to 9	Last Federal Reserve meeting of 2026
Jan 3, 2027	New Congress starts. Unpassed bills, including CLARITY, expire

When the Results Usually Become Clear

Close races can take days. In 2022, the AP called the Senate four days after the vote and the House eight days after it.

Kalshi traders priced the timing at about 04:52 UTC on November 3. An AP call of the House before midnight ET was at 45% to 47%, before 4 a.m. ET on November 4 (09:00 UTC) at 71% to 78%, and before November 6 at 86% to 89%. A Senate call before midnight ET was at 36% to 40%, and before November 5 at 69% to 73%.

Ohio closes first among the crypto-funded races, at 7:30 p.m. ET (00:30 UTC). Texas, Michigan, Maine, Iowa and Nebraska follow by 9 p.m. ET (02:00 UTC). Alaska counts last, and its race can stay open for days.

How BTC Traded in the 72 Hours After Past Elections

The table measures hourly BTC/USDT prices on Binance from 23:00 UTC on election day, when the first polls close.

Election	Price at 23:00 UTC	+6 hours	+24 hours	+48 hours	+72 hours	72-hour range
2018 midterm (Nov 6)	$6,500	+1%	+1.2%	-0.4%	-1.3%	-1.7% to +1.8%
2020 presidential (Nov 3)	$13,824	+0.5%	+2.3%	+12.4%	+12.8%	-2.2% to +15.4%
2022 midterm (Nov 8)	$18,460	-1.1%	-14%	-3.4%	-8.3%	-15.6% to +1%
2024 presidential (Nov 5)	$69,594	+6.7%	+8.7%	+9%	+9.7%	-0.4% to +10.9%

StealthEX graphic. Data: Binance, as of November 3, 2026 

In 2018, BTC stayed within 1.8% of its election-night price for three days. The 2022 drop came from FTX. BTC had already fallen 9.8% in the 24 hours before polls closed, after Binance announced its offer for FTX. Both presidential years rose more than 9% within 72 hours.

Swap Crypto Around Election Night Without an Account

BTC fell 14% in the 24 hours after polls closed in 2022 and rose 8.7% after the 2024 vote. FTX filed for bankruptcy three days after the 2022 midterm, and its customers could not withdraw their coins. Coins held in your own wallet stay under your control.

StealthEX is a non-custodial exchange. Swaps go from your wallet to your wallet, and the service does not store your funds. You do not need an account, and more than 2,000 coins and tokens are available. Floating-rate swaps have no maximum amount, and fixed rates lock the amount you get. Most swaps take 5 to 30 minutes. Verification may be requested in some cases.

You can move between BTC and stablecoins such as USDT or USDC, including USDC on Polygon, the network Polymarket’s international site uses. A swap takes three steps:

1. Choose the coins and the amount, and pick a fixed or floating rate.
2. Enter the wallet address that should receive the coins.
3. Send your coins to the deposit address shown and get the swapped coins in your wallet.

FAQ

When Are the 2026 US Midterm Elections?

Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The first polls close at 6 p.m. ET (23:00 UTC), and the last close in Alaska at 1 a.m. ET on November 4 (06:00 UTC). Close races may take days to call.

Who Is Favored to Win the 2026 Midterms?

On the morning of November 3 (UTC), Polymarket gave Democrats a 95% chance of winning the House at 04:50 UTC and Kalshi 93.6% at 05:04 UTC. At 04:51 UTC both gave Democrats a 76% chance of winning the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats.

How Did Bitcoin Perform After Past Midterms?

One year after election day, BTC was up 23% after 2014, 45% after 2018 and 93% after 2022, an average of about 54%. The first month was weaker. BTC was down 45.5% after 30 days in 2018 and 7% in 2022.

Does Bitcoin Go Up or Down on Midterm Election Night?

There is no fixed pattern. In the 72 hours after polls closed, BTC moved less than 2% in 2018 and fell 8.3% in 2022 during the FTX collapse. After the 2024 presidential vote it rose 9.7%.

Is a Split Congress Good or Bad for Bitcoin?

Congress was split after the 2010, 2018 and 2022 midterms, and BTC was higher a year later each time. Split control usually means fewer new laws, so it can slow crypto bills such as CLARITY.

Is 2026 Following the Same Pattern?

Partly. BTC peaked in October 2025, about a year before the vote, as in past cycles. The fall is smaller at 38.6%, against 67% to 73% before, and the 2026 low so far came on June 30, before the election.

Which Crypto Laws Depend on the 2026 Midterms?

The main one is the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill. It passed the House in July 2025 but failed a Senate cloture vote 49 to 50 on September 15, 2026. It expires if it does not pass by January 3, 2027.

How Much Is the Crypto Industry Spending on the 2026 Midterms?

Fairshake and its affiliates spent about $150.8 million through October 20, 2026, and the whole industry about $176 million across more than 100 races, Reuters reported. Ohio is the biggest single race.

Can Americans Use Polymarket?

Not the international site. Polymarket.com blocks US residents from depositing and trading. Americans can trade on Polymarket US, a separate CFTC-regulated exchange that requires identity checks and is not available in Nevada.

Don’t forget to do your own research before buying any crypto. This article is for information only and is not financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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