Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026" at 6%, with 2 venues quoting within 1 point of each other. The contract settles on resolution; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6¢cheapest to buy | 94¢ | 0.4¢ | $15 | $19K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 7¢ | 93¢ | 0.4¢ | $1 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If Base launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value. NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 6% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.