Economic prediction markets: Fed, CPI and jobs odds
Economic prediction markets price the next Fed decision, inflation print and jobs report in real time. 1,887 economy questions are trading on Polymarket and Kalshi, led by “Fed Decision in October”. Each price reads as a probability. Where both venues list a question, we compare the two prices.
Updated
Most traded economy markets
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Oct 28, 2026
Fed Decision in October
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2029
Anthropic announces bankruptcy
Economy markets priced on both venues
The busiest economy markets both venues list. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Chance of Yes
1¢ cheaper on KalshiResolves Oct 28, 2026
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Chance of Yes
1¢ cheaper on PolymarketResolves Oct 28, 2026
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
Chance of Yes
1¢ cheaper on PolymarketResolves Dec 9, 2026
Every economy market, priced
Chance is the favourite's price on a board of outcomes, the favoured side of a match, or the named market's Yes price, on its venue.
Economy markets closing this week
Polymarket or Kalshi for economic markets?
Polymarket lists 507 open economic events right now, and Kalshi lists 1,380.
Kalshi covers more data series, and each settles on the official release its rules name.
Polymarket draws heavy volume on the Fed and oil. Trading a Fed meeting? Check both prices first.
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated, via Polymarket US
- You fund with
- Debit card, ACH, wire in the US; crypto, held as pUSD (Polygon) abroad
- Open economy markets
- 507 markets
- Fees
- Polymarket's fees
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated exchange
- You fund with
- ACH, RTP, debit card and 7 more
- Open economy markets
- 1,380 markets
- Fees
- Kalshi's fees
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What economic markets you can trade
The Fed draws the most money. Every meeting gets a market: hold, cut or hike, and by how much.
Data releases come next. Inflation, jobs and growth each trade in bands, one contract per range.
- The Fed's decision at each meeting, and the rate at year end
- CPI inflation, month on month and year on year
- Jobs, unemployment and GDP prints
- Recession calls, oil prices and company events such as IPOs
What moves economic odds
Data moves these markets. So do the people who set policy, and one Fed speech can shift a rate market overnight.
Between releases, prices drift. In the minutes after one, they jump. Most markets settle within hours of the print.
Traders also watch fed funds futures, which price the same meetings from another angle.
More economy markets
Other categories
Common questions
What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?
The Fed decision market above prices each outcome for the next meeting. Our Fed rate decision page follows every meeting on one URL.
How are economic prediction markets different from fed funds futures?
Futures price a rate. A prediction market prices a decision, one contract per outcome. So its price reads straight as the chance of a cut, hold or hike.
When do economic markets settle?
Soon after the official release the rules name, such as the BLS for inflation. The settlement date sits on each market's page.
What are the recession odds right now?
Recession markets list their own definition and deadline, and the busiest appear in the table above. Read the rules, since venues define recession differently.
Can I trade economic markets in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US or Kalshi. Check your state for any action against specific contracts.