Election odds and political prediction markets
Election odds are live on Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi right now. 7,540 political questions are trading, led by “Which party will win the House in 2026?”. Each price is a probability, set by traders with money behind it. When two or more venues list the same race, you see each price side by side.
Updated
Most traded politics markets
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Nov 3, 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · resolves Oct 31, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...
Kalshi · resolves Feb 1, 2027
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power
Politics markets priced on both venues
The busiest politics markets two or more venues list. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Chance of Yes
1¢ cheaper on PolymarketResolves Jan 4, 2027
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Chance of Yes
2¢ cheaper on KalshiResolves Jan 4, 2027
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Chance of Yes
1¢ cheaper on Polymarket and Kalshi1¢ cheaper on KalshiResolves Nov 3, 2026
Every politics market, priced
Chance is the favourite's price on a board of outcomes, the favoured side of a match, or the named market's Yes price, on its venue.
Politics markets closing this week
Polymarket or Kalshi for election odds?
Open political events right now: 2,331 on Polymarket, 632 on Polymarket US and 4,577 on Kalshi.
Kalshi trades in dollars on a CFTC-regulated exchange. Polymarket US is CFTC-regulated too, and its international app settles in USDC.
Here is why comparing venues matters. The same race often trades at different prices. Buy the cheapest, and the same $1 payout costs you less.
- Regulated
- International exchange; US residents trade on Polymarket US
- You fund with
- Crypto, held as pUSD (Polygon)
- Open politics markets
- 2,331 markets
- Fees
- Polymarket's fees
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated exchange (QCX LLC)
- You fund with
- Debit card, ACH, wire
- Open politics markets
- 632 markets
- Fees
- Polymarket US's fees
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated exchange
- You fund with
- ACH, RTP, debit card and 7 more
- Open politics markets
- 4,577 markets
- Fees
- Kalshi's fees
$50 bonusNew to Kalshi? Trade $25, get a $50 bonus through our link. US only, 18+. Kalshi promo code terms
Check your state before you sign up · Kalshi vs Polymarket in full · Best prediction market apps
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What election markets you can trade
Most political money sits on elections. Both venues list US races, from House seats to governors and the 2028 presidency.
Elections abroad trade too, from Europe to Latin America, often months before the vote.
- Who wins a race, one contract per candidate
- Which party controls the House or the Senate
- Who wins a party's nomination
- Whether a bill, order or appointment happens by a set date
What moves election odds
Polls matter less than you might think. Traders price them in within hours.
The big jumps come from what polls miss. A candidate quits, a debate goes badly, a court redraws a map.
Then comes election night. Prices follow the count, and a 50% race can hit 95% within an hour.
One caution. Thin markets move on small trades, so check the 24-hour volume before you trust a price.
More politics markets
Other categories
Common questions
What are the current election odds?
The cards and table above show live election odds for the busiest political markets on Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. They update as traders buy and sell.
Are election betting odds the same as prediction market prices?
Close, but not the same. A bookmaker's election betting odds include its margin. A prediction market price is set by traders, so it reads straight as a probability.
How accurate are election prediction markets?
Often more accurate than polls. In one long-run study, the Iowa Electronic Markets beat 964 polls 74% of the time. How accurate prediction markets are has the detail.
Is it legal to trade election markets in the US?
Yes, on CFTC-regulated venues such as Polymarket US and Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts, so check your state first.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different election odds?
Different traders, fees and settlement rules. Two venues can word the same race differently, so compare the rules as well as the price.
Can I trade the 2028 presidential election now?
Yes. Both venues already list the 2028 race, and our 2028 election odds page follows it in one place.