Election odds and political prediction markets

Polymarket or Kalshi for election odds?

Polymarket lists 2,188 open political events right now, and Kalshi lists 4,227.

Kalshi trades in dollars on a CFTC-regulated exchange. Polymarket US is CFTC-regulated too, and its international app settles in USDC.

Here is why having both matters. The same race often trades at two prices. Buy the cheaper one, and the same $1 payout costs you less.

Polymarket

Regulated

CFTC-designated, via Polymarket US

You fund with

Debit card, ACH, wire in the US; crypto, held as pUSD (Polygon) abroad

Open politics markets

2,188 markets

Fees

Polymarket's fees →

Trade on Polymarket →Polymarket review

Kalshi

Regulated

CFTC-designated exchange

You fund with

ACH, RTP, debit card and 7 more

Open politics markets

4,227 markets

Fees

Kalshi's fees →

Trade on Kalshi →Kalshi review

$50 bonusNew to Kalshi? Trade $20, get a $50 bonus through our link. US only, 18+. Offer terms

Check your state before you sign up · Kalshi vs Polymarket in full · Every app compared

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What election markets you can trade

Most political money sits on elections. Both venues list US races, from House seats to governors and the 2028 presidency.

Elections abroad trade too, from Europe to Latin America, often months before the vote.

• Who wins a race, one contract per candidate
• Which party controls the House or the Senate
• Who wins a party's nomination
• Whether a bill, order or appointment happens by a set date

What moves election odds

Polls matter less than you might think. Traders price them in within hours.

The big jumps come from what polls miss. A candidate quits, a debate goes badly, a court redraws a map.

Then comes election night. Prices follow the count, and a 50% race can hit 95% within an hour.

One caution. Thin markets move on small trades, so check the 24-hour volume before you trust a price.