Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026" at 4%, with 2 venues quoting within 1 point of each other. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 5¢ | 95¢ | free | $0 | $1K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 4¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Deepseek completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Deepseek completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
If Deepseek is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
If DeepSeek confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 4% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.