Recurring market
Government shutdown odds
Will there be a US federal government shutdown? No market on this question is matched across venues yet, so there is no side-by-side price; Polymarket lists 1 event and Kalshi 1, each shown below with its own venue's price. This page keeps the same URL every cycle, so it is where the odds live rather than a dated copy.
Polymarket's Government shutdown markets
Kalshi's Government shutdown markets
How a shutdown market resolves
A shutdown is a lapse in appropriations: when Congress has not passed full-year funding or a continuing resolution by the deadline (the federal fiscal year starts on October 1), agencies without funding stop everything but excepted work. The venues' questions are worded around that lapse: whether one begins by a date, or how long it lasts. Read the rules on each market: some count a lapse of any length, some require agencies to begin shutdown procedures, and each names the official notice it settles on.
Recent shutdowns
The longest shutdown on record ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025, 43 days, after Congress missed the fiscal 2026 deadline. Before it, the record was the 35-day partial shutdown of December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019. There was a three-day lapse in January 2018 and a 16-day shutdown in October 2013.
Markets on the next deadline open as the deadline approaches, usually a few weeks ahead, and settled deadlines are kept under Settled occurrences.
Where you can trade this
Common questions
Will there be a US federal government shutdown?
No market on this question is matched across venues yet, so there is no side-by-side price; Polymarket lists 1 event and Kalshi 1, each shown below with its own venue's price.
Why does this page not have a date in its URL?
Because the question recurs and the page is permanent: each occurrence prices here in turn, so the links and authority it earns accumulate on one URL instead of restarting with every cycle.