Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026: odds and prices
Markets price "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026" at 24%, with 2 venues quoting within 1 point of each other. The contract settles by Nov 3, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 25¢ | 76¢ | free | $249K | $108K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 24¢cheapest to buy | 77¢ | 1.3¢ | $44K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election.
Full settlement wording
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 24% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.