Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027: odds and prices
"Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027" is priced at 83% on Polymarket and 90% on Kalshi, 7 points apart: the venues disagree, so 86% is their average, not a consensus. The contract settles by Jun 30, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 83¢cheapest to buy | 18¢ | 0.6¢ | $2K | $30K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 90¢ | 11¢ | 0.7¢ | $10K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth,…
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Pete Hegseth is formally impeached before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pete Hegseth is impeached when the U.S. House of Representatives adopts at least one article of impeachment against him; a Senate trial or conviction is not required.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 27% · $191K 24h volume, both venues
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 26% · $118K 24h volume, both venues
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 76% · $96K 24h volume, both venues
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Yes 22% · $86K 24h volume on Polymarket (Polymarket US publishes none)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Yes 26% · $75K 24h volume on Polymarket (Polymarket US publishes none)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 13% · $62K 24h volume, both venues
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ at execution.
Common questions
What are the odds on "Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027"?
The venues disagree: 83% on Polymarket and 90% on Kalshi. The 86% shown is their average; the gap often comes from settlement rules worded differently, compared on this page.
Where can I trade "Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.