Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Odds and prices

Kalshi

For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: Richard Grenell has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela Richard Grenell is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela Richard Grenell is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified) The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective Appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026 Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026 Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself Clarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes. Under the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified).  Maduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy "officially holds." Maduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies. This clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.