Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026" at 25%, with 2 venues quoting at the same price. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 25¢ | 75¢ | free | $6K | $42K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 25¢ | 76¢ | 1.3¢ | $5K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 9% · $2.7M 24h volume, both venues
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · Yes 27% · $1.6M 24h volume on Polymarket and Kalshi (Polymarket US publishes none)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 91% · $1.3M 24h volume, both venues
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · Yes 36% · $1.1M 24h volume on Polymarket and Kalshi (Polymarket US publishes none)
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 9% · $918K 24h volume, both venues
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 36% · $551K 24h volume, both venues
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ at execution.
Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 25% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.