Polymarket Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Liam Draxl vs Nikoloz Basilashvili odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Nikoloz Basilashvili, at 56%. The market settles by Oct 13, 2026, and $423 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 56¢ reads as a 56% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 56¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this match
The same match on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Liam Draxl | Nikoloz Basilashvili | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44¢cheapest to buy | 56¢ | 1.2¢ | $427 | $18K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 45¢ | 56¢ | 1.7¢ | $28K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Liam Draxl and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 12:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Liam Draxl' if Liam Draxl advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili.
This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Liam Draxl.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 13, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 56¢ for Nikoloz Basilashvili right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Liam Draxl vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Nikoloz Basilashvili, at 56%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.