Polymarket Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Rigele Te vs Ilia Simakin odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Ilia Simakin, at 86%. The market settles by Oct 13, 2026, and $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 86¢ reads as an 86% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Simakin compare | 86% | 86¢ | $985 | Trade |
| Set 1 O/U 8.5 · Over | 80% | 80¢ | $38 | Trade |
| Set Handicap +/-1.5 · Ilia Simakin -1.5 | 64% | 64¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Set 1 O/U 9.5 · Over | 60% | 60¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Game Spread +/-4.5 · Ilia Simakin -4.5 | 53% | 53¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Match O/U 21.5 · Under | 51% | 51¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Match O/U 22.5 · Under | 59% | 59¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Set 1 O/U 10.5 · Under | 68% | 68¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Match O/U 23.5 · Under | 69% | 69¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Total Sets: O/U 2.5 · Under 2.5 | 72% | 72¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 7 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 Winner · Ilia Simakin | 78% | 78¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Set Handicap +/-1.5 · Ilia Simakin +1.5 | 92% | 92¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Completed Match | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Set 2 O/U 9.5 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Set 2 O/U 10.5 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Set 2 O/U 8.5 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Set 2 Winner | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 86¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this match
The same match on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Rigele Te | Ilia Simakin | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14¢cheapest to buy | 86¢cheapest to buy | 0.6¢ | $985 | $10K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 15¢ | 87¢ | 0.9¢ | $532 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Rigele Te and Ilia Simakin in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 1:30AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Rigele Te' if Rigele Te advances against Ilia Simakin.
This market will resolve to 'Ilia Simakin' if Ilia Simakin advances against Rigele Te.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 13, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 86¢ for Ilia Simakin right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Rigele Te vs Ilia Simakin?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Ilia Simakin, at 86%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.