China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev odds, Oct 5
Markets price Novak Djokovic 45%, Daniil Medvedev 55%, with 2 venues quoting each result. The match is under way; prices move with it. Each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This match on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Live odds by venue
| Venue | Novak Djokovic | Daniil Medvedev | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 45¢ | 55¢ | 1.2¢ | $210K | $165K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 45¢ | 55¢ | 1.7¢ | $567K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market refers to the tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 7:00AM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market refers to the tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 7:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Novak Djokovic' if Novak Djokovic advances against Daniil Medvedev.
This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Novak Djokovic.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Novak Djokovic wins the Djokovic vs Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Beijing Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Djokovic vs Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Beijing Semifinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev"?
Markets price Novak Djokovic 45%, Daniil Medvedev 55% across 2 venues: market-implied probabilities rather than forecasts.
Where can I trade "China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.