It's time for my second post again: we have reached the "capitulation" phase.
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p><strong>My credentials: last time I posted was a bit more than a year ago in august to</strong> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/p0j248/the_return_to_normal_phase_consider_taking/"><strong>warn people we were in the &quot;return to normal&quot; phase</strong></a> <strong>and that it would be the last opportunity to take profits (which was of course ridiculed and mostly downvoted then).</strong><br/> <strong>I have called the end of the bullrun since may 2021 as a few others did as well (apparently comments history doesn&#39;t go beyond 1 year so i can&#39;t find the quote for that one).</strong></p> <p>&#x200B;</p> <p><strong>Now it is time for a new post again, to do my duty and share my assessment that we have entered the long awaited &quot;Capitulation&quot; phase and we&#39;re entering the one window to DCA in for the next 4 years.</strong></p> <p><strong>Next post in probably 2 years, once we hit &quot;Mania&quot; again...</strong></p> <p>&#x200B;</p> <p>&#x200B;</p> <p>I don&#39;t give much attention to &quot;technical analysis&quot; and focus mostly on recognizing the psychological cycle (especially by following this sub): price patterns and predictions are meaningless, but human psychology repeats in a much more reliable way.</p> <p>For instance, price wise I must admit I was surprised of how far up in price the &#39;return to normal&#39; phase went compared to the expected level (even hitting ATH for a few days if you don&#39;t count for inflation).<br/> In retrospect this can possibly be explained by the fact that so many people expected a 2017 style blow-off-top Mania phase that it made the return-to-normal much stronger as more people were convinced it wasn&#39;t over yet.<br/> During Mania, a lot more of the retail FOMO was diverted to the doggy shitcoins this cycle compared to 2017 (which show a much clearer &#39;blow-off top&#39; pattern).<br/> All this to say that focusing on price patterns is useless and unpredictable. What is recognizable and reliable are the mood, and even though I couldn&#39;t predict how far up the return to normal went in terms of price, I could see that we were in that phase.</p> <p>&#x200B;</p> <p>The psychological cycle:</p> <ul> <li>Mania (april 2021)<br/></li> <li>Denial (may 2021) </li> <li>Return-to-normal (august 2021) &lt;- best time to DCA out</li> <li>Fear (december 2021) </li> <li>Panic (may 2022)</li> <li>Boredom (june 2022)</li> <li><strong>Capitulation (now)</strong> &lt;- best time to DCA in</li> <li>Depression</li> <li>Disbelief</li> <li>Optimism</li> <li><p>Mania </p> <p><em>Shadows &amp; dust</em><br/> 😺</p></li> </ul> </div><!-- SC_ON --> &#32; submitted by &#32; <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ronchon"> /u/ronchon </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/yv04y0/its_time_for_my_second_post_again_we_have_reached/">[link]</a></span> &#32; <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/yv04y0/its_time_for_my_second_post_again_we_have_reached/">[comments]</a></span>