Shiba Inu price prediction: a rate hike looms and SHIB falls harder than bitcoin

Shiba Inu traded at around $0.00000445 on Wednesday morning, November 11, up 0.3 percent on 24 hours earlier. The calm is deceptive: since Tuesday’s US inflation data, futures markets have been all but certain of a US Federal Reserve rate hike on December 9. What is documented: the CME’s FedWatch tool shows a probability of around 85 to 89 percent for a 0.25 percentage point move in December, and over the past 90 days SHIB fell considerably harder than bitcoin itself on days when bitcoin was weak. Our assessment follows further down: until the rate decision, the SHIB price depends less on its own news than on how bitcoin digests the meeting.

This Shiba Inu price prediction therefore does not work with a price target plucked from thin air but with our own measurement: how much does SHIB lose when bitcoin drops by more than 2 percent, and how much does the coin gain on strong days? That yields the levels at which the next four weeks will be decided, and the questions you can ask yourself about leverage, custody and tax before the meeting. Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our Shiba Inu price prediction.

Shiba Inu price prediction on Wednesday: 88.8 percent for a December rate hike

The trigger came from Washington. US consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October from the previous month, according to the Labor Department, as CBS News reported on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by FactSet had expected 0.3 percent. The core rate excluding energy and food came in at 0.3 percent, also slightly above forecasts. The department did not report an annual rate for October, because the comparison figures from the same month a year earlier are missing owing to the government shutdown in autumn 2025.

The reaction in the rates market was clear. According to Investing.com, the CME’s FedWatch tool priced in a probability of 88.8 percent for a 0.25 percentage point increase overnight into Wednesday, up from around 72 percent a week earlier. For a large 0.5 percentage point move, the figure was 11.2 percent. Shortly after the release, CBS cited 85 and 15 percent. A pause in December is therefore practically no longer priced in. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time in three years and held in October. The next meeting runs on December 8 and 9.

For cryptocurrencies, a rising policy rate is a headwind, because safe assets such as short-dated government bonds yield more and capital for risky bets becomes more expensive. It usually hits hardest the coins that have no business model and no earnings of their own and live almost entirely on risk appetite. Shiba Inu belongs squarely in that group.

October inflation data: why the December 9 rate decision matters for SHIB

A meme coin such as SHIB rarely reacts directly to a rate decision. The path runs through bitcoin. When large investors cut their risk, they sell the most liquid positions first, and in the crypto market that means bitcoin. Altcoins follow, usually with bigger swings, because order books are thinner and fewer buyers are on hand. The mechanism works in both directions: if the rate hike turns out milder than feared, the same coins often benefit most.

How closely SHIB is currently tied to bitcoin is shown by the comparison since the start of October. Bitcoin lost around 11.5 percent from October 1 to Wednesday and traded at about $74,000 on Wednesday morning. Shiba Inu fell by around 22.6 percent over the same period, almost twice as much. Market capitalisation stands at around $2.6 billion according to CoinGecko, putting SHIB at number 37 among the largest cryptocurrencies.

It does not follow that SHIB must keep falling in December. It does follow, however, that a forecast for Shiba Inu over the coming four weeks is above all a forecast of how bitcoin reacts to the central bank. Anyone holding SHIB is also holding a bet on the rates question, whether they like it or not.

Our own measurement: on ten down days for bitcoin, SHIB lost 5.2 percent on average

To make the relationship tangible, we analysed CoinGecko daily closing prices for both coins over the 90 days from August 13 to November 11. We counted every day on which bitcoin lost more than 2 percent. That happened ten times. On those ten days bitcoin fell by 3.1 percent on average and Shiba Inu by 5.2 percent. On nine of the ten days, SHIB lost more than bitcoin.

Day	Bitcoin	Shiba Inu
September 24	−2.1%	−7.6%
October 8	−2.6%	−6.2%
October 13	−2.3%	−5.9%
October 30	−4.2%	−6.6%
November 6	−5.5%	−4.8%
Average of all ten days	−3.1%	−5.2%

The only exception was November 6, the day of the US jobs report. Bitcoin fell by 5.5 percent then, SHIB by only 4.8 percent. The data do not reveal a reason with certainty, but part of the SHIB selling had already taken place in the days before.

The opposite direction is revealing. On the nine days on which bitcoin gained more than 2 percent, bitcoin rose by 5.1 percent on average and SHIB by 6.4 percent. The premium on the way up is therefore much smaller than on the way down: on down days SHIB lost around 1.7 times as much as bitcoin, on up days it gained only 1.3 times as much. This asymmetry is the real message of the measurement. In a nervous market, SHIB gives way faster than it recovers.

A beta of 1.36: how strongly Shiba Inu reacts to bitcoin moves

Statisticians sum up this relationship in a single measure, the beta. It indicates by how many percent an asset moves on average when the benchmark moves by one percent. A beta of 1 means moving in step, a beta above 1 an amplified swing.

Over the 90 days to Wednesday, SHIB has a beta of 1.36 against bitcoin. The correlation, meaning how reliably both prices move in the same direction, stands at 0.81 on a scale up to 1. SHIB’s daily volatility, at 3.7 percent, was almost twice that of bitcoin at 2.2 percent. Over the past 30 days, however, the beta fell to 1.03 with a correlation of 0.78. In the calmer downtrend of recent weeks, SHIB moved almost in lockstep with bitcoin and temporarily lost its leverage.

For the forecast, that is an important difference. The 30-day beta describes a market in which both coins slowly crumble. The 90-day beta contains the sharp swings of September and October. If there is a strong bitcoin day around December 9, the longer series suggests that SHIB is more likely to react with the higher factor again. That can only be proven after the meeting.

Since Monday: the zone around $0.00000427 has held

In the Shiba Inu price prediction from Monday evening, the zone around $0.00000427 was named as the first line of support, at the time against the backdrop of 86 trillion SHIB on exchanges. SHIB was trading at around $0.00000436 then. The zone has held since. According to CoinGecko, the lowest hourly level was around $0.00000432 on Monday morning; the price then turned higher and stands at $0.00000445 on Wednesday, a good 2 percent higher.

That is not yet a trend reversal. The 20-day line, cited on Monday as the next resistance, now sits at around $0.0000047, a good 6 percent above the price. The 50-day line stands at around $0.0000052. Over seven days SHIB is down 5.2 percent, over 30 days 18.6 percent. What is new since Monday is not the price but the rates picture: the probability of a December hike rose within a week from about 72 to almost 89 percent.

Futures market on OKX: funding back at 0.01 percent, long ratio rises to 2.33

A second look goes to the futures market, where traders bet on SHIB with leverage. In perpetual futures, known as perpetuals, a regular balancing payment aligns the futures price with the spot price. This funding rate is paid by buyers to sellers when it is positive, and the other way round when it is negative.

On the OKX exchange, funding for the SHIB-USDT perpetual stood at 0.01 percent per eight-hour cycle at 9 a.m. Central European Time on Wednesday, the usual base value. On Monday, when SHIB marked its low at $0.00000432, it was slightly negative for two cycles, meaning sellers briefly paid extra. That dip has disappeared again.

The ratio of accounts with long positions to those with short positions rose from 2.20 on Sunday to 2.33 on Tuesday, according to OKX data. For every account betting on falling prices, there are therefore a good two accounts betting on rising prices. On November 2 the figure was still 2.81. Open interest in SHIB contracts on OKX fell from around $6.96 million on October 29 to $6.05 million on Tuesday. Speculators have thinned out, but those who remain are still mostly betting on a recovery. If bitcoin falls after the rate decision, it is precisely these long positions that will be forcibly closed and could accelerate the decline.

SHIB levels up and down: $0.0000047 and the July yearly low

On the upside, the first level is $0.0000045, just above Wednesday’s intraday high of $0.00000449. Above that comes the 20-day line at around $0.0000047. Since mid-October this line has repeatedly been the ceiling at which recoveries ended. A daily close above it would make the November 4 high at around $0.0000048 the next target.

On the downside, Monday’s low at $0.00000432 counts first. If it breaks, the July 17 yearly low at around $0.00000411 comes into view. A worked example shows how close that is: if bitcoin loses 5 percent on a weak day, as happened on November 6, the 90-day beta of 1.36 implies a decline of around 6.8 percent for SHIB. From Wednesday’s price, that would be about $0.00000415, only a whisker above the yearly low. That is not a forecast but a calculation using the values of the past three months.

The same calculation works in reverse. A bitcoin day with a gain of 5 percent would lift SHIB by around 6.4 percent based on the up days in the measurement, to about $0.00000473, right at the 20-day line.

Leverage before the Fed meeting: what a worked example shows about liquidation

If you trade SHIB with leverage, you should translate the figures above to your own position. With 10x leverage, a deposit of 10 percent secures the full position. A price decline of 6.8 percent, as in the worked example, then eats up a good two thirds of the deposit. Depending on the exchange and the maintenance margin, such a position is forcibly closed after a decline of around 9 percent. The entire deposit is then gone.

Then there is funding. 0.01 percent per eight-hour cycle sounds like little, but it adds up to 0.03 percent a day on the full position value. With 10x leverage that is 0.3 percent of the deposit daily, or around 8 percent by December 9, without the price having moved at all. If you want to compare the fees and terms of trading venues for perpetuals, you will find them in our perp DEX comparison.

For holders without leverage, the situation is simpler. A drop to the yearly low would be painful, but it forces no one to sell. What matters more here is custody: holding SHIB on an exchange under European MiCA supervision offers more protection than an unlicensed trading venue. Which providers are suitable for European customers is shown in our crypto exchange comparison.

If you are sitting on SHIB losses after the decline since October, it is worth checking before year-end how your country treats them for tax purposes; the programs in our crypto tax software comparison help document purchase dates and cost prices.

Our assessment: Shiba Inu remains a leveraged bitcoin bet until the rate decision

In our view, more points to a continued weak phase than a strong one until December 9. The evidence: the rate hike is priced in at almost 89 percent, so a downside surprise is hardly possible any more, while an upside one through a 0.5 percentage point move still is. SHIB lost more on nine of ten weak bitcoin days and recovers less strongly on good days. In the futures market, a good two thirds of accounts are still betting on rising prices, which could trigger additional selling in a setback.

On the other side: the zone around $0.00000427 has held since Monday, the 30-day beta has fallen to 1.03, and open interest has shrunk, so there is less leverage in the market than at the end of October. If the rate hike is fully priced in by the meeting, a decision without further tightening could even trigger relief. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. SHIB is a highly volatile meme coin, and a total loss remains possible.

Shiba Inu price prediction: below $0.00000432, the yearly low draws near

Until the rate decision in four weeks, three things can be done concretely:

1. Check where your SHIB is held. You will find an exchange with a MiCA licence in the exchange comparison.
2. For leveraged positions, calculate the distance to liquidation against a SHIB decline of 7 to 9 percent and compare funding costs in the perp DEX comparison.
3. Reconcile realised gains and possible losses from 2026 before December 31, for example with a program from the tax software comparison.

The level for the next few days is Monday’s low at $0.00000432. As long as it holds, a recovery towards the 20-day line remains possible. If it breaks, the July yearly low lies only around 5 percent below.

(As of November 11, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)