Bitcoin price at $78,443: BlackRock vs Fidelity in October's ETF tally

What the data shows: US spot bitcoin ETFs ended October with net outflows of $515.0 million, even though the month was still $128.3 million in positive territory before its final trading day. Our assessment follows further down: the monthly figure describes a rotation between providers, not a flight from the asset class.

Bitcoin is trading at $78,443 on Monday morning. That is 0.91 percent higher than 24 hours earlier, measured on Monday, November 2, at 05:52 on CoinGecko. The range over the past 24 hours runs from $77,616 to $78,733, with trading volume at $78.1 billion.

Where the bitcoin price stands on Monday morning

Today is the first trading day of November. The US funds through which most institutional money flows into bitcoin have been closed since Friday evening. Whatever news built up during this break will only be reflected in fund shares once the Nasdaq opens.

The price itself barely moved over the weekend. On Friday, October 30, bitcoin closed at $77,839; on Saturday it stood at $77,223 and on Sunday at $77,474. Market capitalisation is $1.577 trillion. Volume is the more striking figure: at $78.1 billion, it is well above Sunday's $43.6 billion.

The $78,000 mark has a short history here. On October 31 the price slipped below it; it is now trading $443 above it. The monthly high of $84,082 from October 22 is 6.7 percent away.

October's ETF tally: $515 million in outflows over 22 trading days

A spot bitcoin ETF is a fund that holds actual bitcoin and whose shares trade on an exchange. When an investor buys a share, the fund has to buy more bitcoin; when an investor sells, the fund releases bitcoin. That is why the daily net flows of these funds are one of the few figures from which demand can be read directly.

Over October, according to data from Farside Investors compiled by TFTC, a net $515.0 million came out, on the outflow side. It was spread across 22 trading days, of which 13 brought inflows and 9 brought outflows. Most days were therefore positive.

This is the first point at which the monthly figure misleads. Anyone who reads only the $515 million pictures a month of steady selling pressure. The count shows the opposite: on two out of three trading days, money flowed in.

One trading day turned the whole month

Up to October 29, October stood at net inflows of $128.3 million. The four days before were all positive: $110.3 million on October 26, $176.0 million on the 27th, $137.3 million on the 28th and still $17.1 million on October 29.

Then came Friday, October 30, with outflows of $643.3 million in a single day. That amount alone was larger than everything the month had gathered until then. It turned a gain of $128.3 million into a loss of $515.0 million.

It is not unusual for a month-end to carry moves like this. October 30 was a Friday and also the last trading day of the month, when funds close their books for the monthly report and adjust positions. Bitcoin spot market volume on October 31 was $201.3 billion, four times the daily average of the previous week.

BlackRock gathers, Fidelity and ARK release

The second set of figures explains more than the monthly total. Broken down by provider, October looked like this: BlackRock took in $931.8 million with its IBIT fund. Morgan Stanley reached $34.6 million, Franklin Templeton $12.0 million and CoinShares $1.5 million.

On the other side stood Fidelity with outflows of $754.6 million from FBTC, ARK Invest and 21Shares with $444.1 million from ARKB, Grayscale with $184.1 million from GBTC and $11.2 million from its smaller sister fund, plus Bitwise with $84.0 million, Invesco with $8.3 million, VanEck with $4.8 million and WisdomTree with $3.8 million.

Adding up only the inflow side gives $979.9 million. The market leader therefore took in almost $1 billion in October, while its rivals together released around $1.5 billion. For the bitcoin price, the difference matters; for the picture of the market, the direction of the two flows matters.

How an ETF outflow actually affects the price

An outflow does not mean the fund sells bitcoin on the same day. Shares are first traded between investors. Only when the share price stays below the value of the underlying bitcoin does it pay for an authorised participant to collect shares and return them to the fund in exchange for bitcoin. This mechanism is called redemption, and only at this point does bitcoin leave the fund.

When money moves from one fund to another, both happen at once: one releases bitcoin, the other takes it in. That changes little about supply in the market, because the same holdings merely change custodian. This is exactly the pattern October showed. The total amount of bitcoin in US spot ETFs changed by a fraction of what the gross flows of individual providers would suggest.

In practice, a monthly figure of $515 million set against a market value of $1.577 trillion is a share of 0.03 percent. On its own, it does not explain a price move.

What has changed since the November 1 price report

On Sunday morning we reported that bitcoin stood at $77,725 and that the market was as quiet as it had last been on October 17, as set out in the analysis of the narrowest daily range. Since then, $718, or 0.92 percent, has been added.

The quiet is over. The daily range from $77,616 to $78,733 amounts to $1,117, or 1.4 percent, more than twice as wide as the previous day's. Volume has risen from $43.6 billion to $78.1 billion. Sentiment remains subdued, however: the Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me stands at 37 points on November 2, in the fear zone, after 34 on November 1 and 30 on October 31. The direction points upwards, the level stays low.

Why German investors cannot buy these funds

This is where market observation and your own portfolio part ways. The funds named above are authorised in the US. Retail investors in the EU generally cannot buy them because they lack the key information document required under the European PRIIPs Regulation. Without this document, a broker may not sell the product to retail clients.

Anyone in Germany who wants exposure to bitcoin therefore has two routes. The first is buying the cryptocurrency directly through a trading platform, after which the coins sit either on the platform or in your own wallet. Which providers are authorised for this in Germany and what they cost is shown in the comparison of crypto exchanges. The second route runs through exchange-traded notes that track the bitcoin price and sit in an ordinary securities account.

Holding period or loss pot: the crypto capital gains difference

For tax purposes, a boundary runs between these two routes, and it often matters more for returns than a difference in fees. When you buy directly, bitcoin counts as an "other asset" under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act. If you hold for at least a year, you pay no tax on the gain. If you sell earlier, the gain is taxed at your personal income tax rate, subject to an exemption threshold.

Whether this one-year period will remain is open. The planned reform is with the cabinet, without a decision having been taken; we track the latest status on the page on the crypto holding period and its reform.

For a note on bitcoin, by contrast, the flat-rate withholding tax of 25 percent plus solidarity surcharge applies, regardless of the holding period. In return, gains and losses run through the account's loss pot and can be offset against other investment income. What happens when you switch banks is set out in our piece on transferring a securities account holding crypto ETNs. Anyone using both routes in parallel needs records that track holding periods and acquisition costs for each tranche; tools for this are listed in the comparison of tax tools.

The bitcoin price levels that count up and down

On the downside, the daily low of $77,616 is the first marker, followed by Saturday's close of $77,223. Below that lies the $77,370 mark, where the question of the futures premium was settled on November 1.

On the upside, the daily high of $78,733 is the first cap. The next well-founded hurdle is the $80,000 area, where bitcoin left four daily closes between October 25 and 29, between $80,029 and $80,811. Only above that does the monthly high of $84,082 come within reach.

Two dates set the tone for the week

On Tuesday, November 3, the US elects a new Congress. The make-up of both chambers will decide which crypto bills can find a majority at all in the second half of the term.

The second date is Tuesday, November 10, with the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and new inflation data. For bitcoin, this date matters through real interest rates: the longer money stays expensive, the more costly it becomes to hold an asset that generates no ongoing income.

Our assessment of the ETF tally

In the editorial team's view, the October figures do not serve as evidence that institutional money is leaving bitcoin. Three numbers from this article support that: 13 of 22 trading days were positive, the month was $128.3 million in the black up to October 29, and the market leader took in $931.8 million while its rivals released. The pattern is a shift of holdings between providers.

Against this, a single day with $643.3 million in outflows shows how quickly these funds can create pressure when several large addresses move at once. And the rotation does not explain why the price is 6.7 percent below its monthly high. Anyone who wants to use ETF flows as a leading indicator has to read them by provider, not as one total. A total loss remains possible with cryptocurrencies.

October's ETF tally: Monday's test of the $643 million day decides

Whether October 30 was a month-end effect or the start of a series will become clear in today's trading. Three steps make sense:

1. Follow the daily flows of the US funds from today, provider by provider rather than as a total. If the October pattern repeats, BlackRock takes in while Fidelity and ARK release.
2. Settle on your own route before the price pushes you to hurry. Buying directly and buying a note differ significantly for tax purposes; authorised platforms are listed in the exchange comparison, and regular purchases can be set up through a bitcoin savings plan.
3. Document your own holding periods for each tranche while the one-year rule under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act applies. Crypto tax tools provide the records for this.

(As of November 2, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)