Bitcoin at $79,978: what to watch at the lowest level since September

What is established: Bitcoin slipped to $79,332 overnight into Monday and is quoted at $79,978 on Monday morning. According to hourly data from CoinGecko, the price has not been lower in any hour since September 18. Our assessment follows further down: the round number is the smaller part of the story, Wednesday's rate decision the larger one.

Against the previous day, Bitcoin is down 1.1 percent, and 3.8 percent over seven days. Market capitalisation stands at $1.61 trillion, with turnover of $17.8 billion over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin in overnight trading: $79,332 on Monday morning

The setback did not come in one piece but in stages. On Sunday evening, according to CoinGecko's hourly data, Bitcoin still stood at $80,403 around 10pm German time. By midnight it was $80,049, around 3am $79,660, around 4am $79,490. After that the price turned higher and worked its way back towards the round number.

The daily low of $79,332 and the daily high of $80,852 lie roughly $1,500 apart. For the start of a week that is a narrow range, and it says something about liquidity: trading in the early hours of Monday runs mainly through Asian venues, while European and American order books fill up only as the day progresses. A large order put through the market at that hour moves the price more than one placed at midday.

One term belongs here, because it appears in every description of an order book: market depth is the quantity of buy and sell orders sitting close to the current price. The thinner it is, the larger the price swing per Bitcoin traded. On Monday morning it is thinner than at European lunchtime.

The $80,000 level since September 19: only two days with prices below it

The round number draws attention precisely because it has held for so long. Our own analysis of CoinGecko hourly data for the period from September 19 to this morning shows that in those five weeks there were exactly two calendar days on which Bitcoin traded below $80,000 at all. The first was October 24, with a single hour and a low of $79,730. The second is today, and here it ran to four hours in a row.

That is the real difference from last week. On Friday the break lasted an hour and looked like a slip; today it has held for half the night. Whether a floor or another leg down comes of it will be decided by European trading on Monday morning, not by the overnight session.

The 50-day line at $81,812: the gap to the average is widening

Bitcoin has been trading below its 50-day average since last Friday, as set out in our article of October 24, 2026 on the 50-day line. The gap is what is new. From CoinGecko daily closing prices, the average of the past 50 days works out at $81,812. Bitcoin is therefore 2.3 percent below it. On Friday morning, by the same calculation, it was around 1.2 percent.

A zone has thus formed above the price against which every recovery will be measured: the $80,000 level as the first hurdle, the 50-day line at just under $82,000 as the second. Below, the overnight low of $79,490 is the next reference point, and beneath it the October 24 low at $79,730, which has already been passed.

The 200-day average lies further away. By our own calculation it stands at $72,989, leaving Bitcoin around 9.6 percent above it. The medium-term uptrend is therefore intact, even though the short-term one has turned. Bitcoin is 7.6 percent away from the 30-day high of $86,490 set on October 5.

Mining difficulty on Thursday: 5 percent more computing effort per block

On Thursday the mining difficulty of the Bitcoin network moves up. We put the expected adjustment at around 5 percent on October 25, 2026 in our Bitcoin forecast on mining difficulty. Difficulty is the dial with which the blockchain ensures, every 2,016 blocks, that a new block takes ten minutes on average, however much computing power is connected.

For the price that is not a trigger; for miners' cost base it is. If difficulty rises by 5 percent, the same block reward costs 5 percent more in electricity and hardware time. Miners with expensive power sell a larger share of their earnings in such phases rather than holding them. It lands in a week in which the price is already under pressure, and it is a reason to read Wednesday and Thursday together.

Fed decision on October 28: the rate announcement comes at 7pm German time

The Federal Reserve meeting calendar lists a two-day meeting on October 27 and 28, 2026 for October. The decision is published on Wednesday, at 7pm German winter time, with the press conference half an hour later. It is the same date we described as the fixed point of the week in our Sunday morning piece.

Why a rate decision reaches the Bitcoin price at all can be said in two sentences. A higher policy rate makes interest-bearing dollar assets more attractive and raises the cost of borrowed money used to build positions in riskier assets. When it falls, the reverse happens. Bitcoin therefore hangs not on the rate itself but on expectations of which way it moves next.

In practice, that means this for the week: between Monday morning and Wednesday evening, the reason a trend would need in order to carry is absent. Prices run tightly in such phases and react strongly to individual large orders. It matches the narrow daily range of last night.

September as the comparable case: eleven days below $80,000

There is a case in our own data set that bears comparison with today. From September 8 to 18, eleven consecutive daily closing prices came in below $80,000, the lowest on September 16 at $75,590. On September 19 Bitcoin closed back above the level at $80,874, and on September 22 at $86,597. From the September 18 close of $76,371 to that point, the move was 13.4 percent in four days. All values come from CoinGecko daily data; the averages and changes are our own calculation.

Two things set that episode apart from today, and both argue against a simple repeat. First, the September setback ran more than 12 percent below the level and was considerably deeper; today's sits a few hundred dollars under it. Second, the recovery then fell in a week with no central bank date. This week has one.

Holding period and loss offsetting: what the tax office sees in a sale at a loss

Here lies the part that matters more today for investors in Germany than any chart level. Selling Bitcoin within one year of purchase triggers a private disposal. A private disposal is a sale from private assets within the statutory one-year period; the gain is taxed at the personal income tax rate, while a loss can be offset only against gains from other private disposals, not against wages and not against investment income from shares.

That remains the framework in force. The draft abolishing the one-year period is stuck in interdepartmental consultation; the federal cabinet did not adopt it on October 14, 2026. Which dates remain open before the turn of the year, and why December 31, 2026 still carries no force of law, is set out in our overview of the status of the holding period reform.

For a setback like today's, a sober calculation follows. A sale at a loss within the one-year period creates a loss that counts against gains in the same year from other crypto or precious metal sales and can be carried forward into the next year. For that the tax office needs the acquisition date, purchase price and sale price for each position. Where the purchase record is missing, an estimate is made, and an estimate rarely falls in your favour. The transaction export from your exchange is usually available as a CSV file in the account area; how crypto tax software turns it into a position-by-position statement is covered in our comparison.

Anyone past the one-year period does not face this question today. For holdings from 2025 and earlier, a price setback in October 2026 changes nothing about the tax position as long as nothing is sold.

Buying below $80,000: the case for and against entering

In favour is the data of the past five weeks: Bitcoin has dipped below the level on only two days in that time, the gap to the 200-day average is still 9.6 percent, and sentiment has not collapsed. The Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me stands at 50 points on Monday morning, in neutral territory; on October 25 it was 54 points according to our article on the index.

Against it is the calendar. Between today and Wednesday evening sits a rate decision, on Thursday the mining difficulty adjustment, and on Friday an options expiry worth $11.1 billion runs out, according to our article of October 24, 2026 on the Fed window. Buying ahead of those dates means buying the outcome without knowing it. And October 24 showed that a break of the level guarantees no bounce: after the single hour below $80,000, the price gave way further into the weekend.

What actually makes the difference when adding to a position is not the entry price to the nearest hundred dollars, but the cost side. On a purchase of 1,000 euros, a 1.5 percent fee is 15 euros; at 0.2 percent it is 2 euros. Add to that the spread, the gap between buying and selling price, which is wider with thin market depth on a Monday morning than at midday. Laying the fee structures of the large providers side by side shows the spread between them more clearly than any price forecast.

From the newsroom's perspective: Fed Wednesday weighs more than the round number

The $80,000 level is a reference point, not a mechanism. That it was undercut for four hours last night is a signal about market depth in overnight trading and about the direction of the past seven days, in which Bitcoin has lost 3.8 percent. The evidence is set out above: two days below the level since September 19, a 2.3 percent gap to the 50-day line, 7.6 percent to the October 5 high.

Wednesday weighs more. A rate decision is an event with a fixed time and a known format, and it reaches Bitcoin through expectations about the dollar rate. Against that reading stands September, which showed how quickly a setback can resolve itself without a central bank impulse. We draw no directional call for the week from it, and we name no price target.

Bitcoin at $79,978: without a Fed signal the push is missing

Three things can be dealt with concretely this week without needing a view on the price:

1. Settle the cost side before the date arrives. Put your provider's fee and spread next to two others. The overview for that is in our comparison of the best crypto exchanges.
2. Pull your acquisition data together. Download your exchange's transaction export for 2026 and check whether the date, quantity and purchase price are complete for each position. Which tools build a tax statement from it is covered in our comparison of crypto tax software and portfolio trackers.
3. Separate the date from the amount. If you would rather not bet on a price, put the purchase on a fixed rhythm instead of a single day. The terms for that are in our comparison of Bitcoin savings plans.

(As of October 26, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)