Bitcoin price prediction: will $77,370 hold without a futures premium?

Here is what is documented: bitcoin trades at $77,919 on Sunday evening, 0.4 percent above its level of 24 hours ago and 3.4 percent below the level of a week ago (CoinGecko, November 1, 7:43 p.m.). It is also documented that the December contract on the Deribit futures exchange stands only 0.8 percent above spot, the June contract 3.6 percent and the September 2027 contract 5.1 percent. Our assessment follows further down: this ladder is not a price promise but an interest rate curve, and a market without a leverage premium moves more slowly in both directions.

Anyone trying to work out where bitcoin is heading today usually looks at the chart. The second place to look is the futures market, and this Sunday it is unusually clear. Where the price can point over a horizon of months is set out in our Bitcoin price prediction. For today, a different question counts: what does someone pay today for the right to take delivery of bitcoin only a year from now?

Where bitcoin stands on Sunday evening

Over the past 24 hours the price moved between $77,370 and $78,134. That is a daily range of 0.99 percent, less than one hundredth of the price. Market capitalisation stands at $1,567 billion. The price is 38.2 percent away from the all-time high of $126,080 set on October 6, 2025; that high is 391 days old.

Measured over 30 days, bitcoin is down 8.4 percent. The Fear and Greed Index from Alternative.me reads 34 points, which means "Fear"; the day before it stood at 30 points. Sentiment has eased slightly without changing sides.

What the futures curve currently costs

A futures contract is the obligation to settle a quantity of bitcoin on a fixed date at a price agreed today. If that price sits above spot, the buyer pays a premium. The market calls this premium the basis. The basis is the price of time, and it can be converted into an annual rate.

The levels as of November 1, 7:44 p.m., measured against the perpetual contract at $77,865 (Deribit):

• November 27, 2026: $78,159, basis 0.38 percent, 5.3 percent annualised
• December 25, 2026: $78,511, basis 0.83 percent, 5.6 percent annualised
• March 26, 2027: $79,586, basis 2.21 percent, 5.6 percent annualised
• June 25, 2027: $80,702, basis 3.64 percent, 5.6 percent annualised
• September 24, 2027: $81,806, basis 5.06 percent, 5.7 percent annualised

Four maturities spanning eleven months, and the annual rate varies by less than a tenth of a point. That is the real finding of this Sunday.

Why 5.6 percent a year is nothing but the interest rate

Behind the basis sits a trade with no view on price, one that traders call cash and carry. Buy bitcoin on the spot market and sell the December contract at the same time, and by December 25 you have earned 0.83 percent regardless of where the price went. In return your capital is tied up for 54 days. Annualise that and you arrive at 5.6 percent.

This trade competes with short-term dollar interest rates. If the basis sits above them, arbitrageurs step in until the premium has melted away. If it sits below, they leave it alone. The fact that the curve shows almost exactly the same annual figure across every maturity therefore means one thing: the price contains the financing cost and nothing else. Nobody is currently paying a surcharge for owning bitcoin a year from now.

A look back helps for comparison. In phases when the market expects an advance, the basis climbs well above money market rates because leveraged buyers are willing to pay for their position. That premium is precisely what is missing today. What remains is the carry.

The November 2 contract trades below spot

At the short end the picture even flips. The contract expiring November 2 stands at $77,854, which is 0.015 percent below the perpetual, and the November 3 contract at $77,864, 0.002 percent below it. The technical term for this is backwardation: the near-dated contract is cheaper than the spot market.

For bitcoin this is not a normal state of affairs. It arises when more traders want to hedge the coming days than there are leveraged buyers on the other side. The amounts are small, the direction is unambiguous: for the first days of November the market is paying for protection, not for risk.

Funding at 0.0033 percent: leverage has left the market

The second measuring point is the perpetual, a futures contract with no expiry. To keep it pinned to spot, buyers and sellers pay each other a balancing fee every eight hours, known as the funding rate. That rate stands at 0.0033 percent per eight-hour window, or 3.7 percent annualised. It is positive, so buyers are paying, but so low that the amount barely registers.

Open interest in the perpetual stands at $668 million, and at $281 million in the December contract. For investors that means two things. First, the market is thinly populated, and thin markets react more strongly to individual large orders. Second, the overhang of leveraged long positions is absent, the overhang that amplified every downward move through forced selling in recent weeks. Anyone working with leverage will find the fee models and liquidation rules of the platforms in our crypto broker comparison; in quiet phases funding costs are the larger item, not the trading fee.

What has changed since October 31

On October 31 the price slipped below $78,000, and our piece on the bitcoin price after the break of $78,000 named the next targets to the downside. Two things have happened since. The price has not recovered the $78,000 mark, but the daily low of $77,370 has held, and it has held across two consecutive sessions.

On top of that came an outflow of $643 million from the American spot ETFs on October 31, which we reported the same day. That amount equals 18.3 days of miner production: at 144 blocks a day and 3.125 bitcoin per block, 450 bitcoin are created daily, worth $35.1 million at today's price. A single ETF day therefore withdrew more supply than the blockchain creates in two and a half weeks. That the price responded with only a 0.4 percent gain and a daily range under one percent fits the picture painted by the futures market.

The levels that count today: $77,370 and $78,134

Both levels come from the last 24 hours and are therefore the points where buyers and sellers actually met today. To the downside the daily low sits at $77,370, 0.7 percent below the current price. To the upside the daily high caps things at $78,134, 0.3 percent above it, and directly behind that the round $78,000 zone where the price slipped through to the downside on October 31.

The third level comes from the futures market and sits at $78,511. That is where the December contract trades. As long as spot stays below it, the cash and carry trade remains intact and pulls supply into the futures market. If spot catches up with that level, the incentive disappears and the basis has to form anew. That is the point where carry turns back into a view on price.

Miners produce at higher cost and still do not sell more

On October 29 mining difficulty rose 5.54 percent to 148.36 trillion, a record (mempool.space). Difficulty governs how much computing work a block costs; it adjusts every 2,016 blocks. The next adjustment is due on November 12 and is estimated at 0.4 percent. Difficulty therefore stays at record levels.

At the same time computing power on the network has fallen to 1,087 exahash per second, 12.7 percent below the yearly high of 1,245 exahash on November 27, 2025. Taken together that means production of one bitcoin costs more electricity than ever before, and individual operators have already taken their rigs offline. Selling pressure from that corner nevertheless stays capped, because daily production at $35.1 million is small against the sums moving through the ETFs.

Our assessment: a market without leverage falls more slowly

From the editorial desk, the flat futures curve is the most important signal of this weekend, and it argues against another sharp slump. The evidence: the funding rate of 0.0033 percent and open interest of $668 million show that hardly any leveraged long positions sit in the market that could accelerate a downward move through forced selling. The backwardation on November 2 and 3 shows that short-term hedging demand is already being served. And the low at $77,370 has held for two sessions, even though $643 million flowed out of the ETFs on October 31.

Against that stands the other side of the same number. Where no leverage premium is paid, the demand that carries a price higher on its own is also absent. A market that pays nothing but the money market rate is waiting for an external trigger. The next one with a date attached is the US Federal Reserve rate decision on November 10. That sentiment sits at 34 points in fear territory changes none of this: the number describes where the market stands, not where it is going. No recommendation to buy or sell follows from any of it, and a total loss remains possible with crypto assets.

Holding period and loss pot: December 31 is getting closer

For German investors a price 38 percent below the high has a tax dimension tied to a date. Gains on crypto assets are tax-free after a holding period of one year; within the year they count as a private disposal under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act. Losses from such transactions can only be offset against gains of the same kind, and the cut-off for that is the calendar year. Anyone who realised gains inside the one-year window this year can therefore check by December 31 whether losses still stand against them. We have assembled the current state of the planned reform under crypto holding period and reform.

Two points matter here. First, you need the purchase date and purchase price for every position, otherwise the one-year window cannot be substantiated. Second, the window applies per acquisition, not per wallet, and the order of disposal follows whichever method you apply consistently. Anyone using several exchanges and wallets will struggle to pull that together by hand.

Futures curve at 5.6 percent: the carry pays, the story does not

This Sunday's situation sits in a single number: across eleven months of maturity the futures market pays the same annual rate a dollar money market account returns. Three steps follow from that.

1. Note the three levels. $77,370 to the downside, $78,134 to the upside, $78,511 as the level of the December contract. Which exchange offers which fees and which execution is set out in our crypto exchange comparison.
2. Sort out this year's tax position. Gather the purchase date and purchase price for each position and set them against realised gains by December 31. Tools that pull this together from several exchanges are compared in our crypto tax software and portfolio tracker comparison.
3. On leveraged positions, net off the financing costs. At 0.0033 percent per eight hours a long position pays roughly 3.7 percent a year, regardless of the price. Platform terms are set out in our perp DEX comparison.

The US Federal Reserve rate decision on November 10 is the next date on which the flat curve can move. Until then the futures market remains a mirror of financing.

(As of November 1, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)