Is This the End? How Low Bitcoin Could Fall After the Binance Hack

How low can Bitcoin fall after the Binance hack? The honest answer hangs on one question: will withdrawals at Binance stay open. On Thursday night about $2.8 billion was drained from a Binance hot wallet and Bitcoin slid to $78,763 by 21:00 UTC. Measured against the roughly $144 billion that DefiLlama shows on Binance addresses, the damage is small. Markets, however, trade trust, not totals. We walk through three scenarios, the price levels that matter now for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, and how to act.

The minute-by-minute account of the evening is in our crypto crash timeline, the details of the drained wallet in our Binance hack report.

Is this the end of the Bitcoin bull run?

Not on Thursday's data. Bitcoin lost just under 2% in the first hour and 2.6% over 24 hours. That is a sharp pullback, not a collapse like the summer: on July 1, 2026 Bitcoin closed at $58,566 according to CoinGecko, its lowest daily close in twelve months. Since then it has gained about 35%.

The danger is not the stolen amount but a chain reaction. Almost every coin trades against Bitcoin, Ether, USDT or USDC, and Binance is the largest venue for many of those pairs. If the exchange wobbles, the whole market wobbles. That is what the three scenarios test.

Scenario 1: Binance confirms and covers the loss

This is the path co-founder Changpeng Zhao hinted at. He wrote on X that user funds are safe, while Binance says it is investigating reports of a potential security issue. Shortly after, the stablecoin issuers reported freezes: Paolo Ardoino more than 1.567 billion USDT, Jeremy Allaire more than 800 million USDC. Together that is about $2.4 billion of roughly $2.8 billion. What remains, mainly the attacker's Ether, Binance could cover from its own funds or its SAFU emergency fund, which already replaced 7,000 stolen Bitcoin in May 2019.

The blueprint is the Bybit hack of February 2025: about $1.5 billion in Ether was stolen, Bybit kept withdrawals open and closed the gap within days. Markets dipped and recovered once it was clear no customer would lose money. For Bitcoin this would mean a quick return above $80,000.

Scenario 2: withdrawals stall and fear spreads

If Binance stays vague or withdrawals slow down, the picture changes. Customers would pull their coins, as at FTX in November 2022. The difference is huge: FTX had lent out customer money and was insolvent, while Binance's public wallets hold many times the loss. A large-scale withdrawal wave would still force selling, because traders prefer dollars to coins on a shaken exchange.

The levels that would matter come from the price history on CoinGecko:

Coin	Low on Oct 29 evening	90-day low	12-month low
Bitcoin	$78,763	$62,773 (Aug 2)	$58,566 (Jul 1)
Ethereum	$2,251	$1,843 (Aug 2)	$1,566 (Jun 26)
Solana	$95.64	$71.89 (Aug 2)	$62.18 (Jun 7)

Between Thursday's low and the August low lies about 20% for Bitcoin. That is the range the market would negotiate in this scenario. It is not a forecast but a map of the levels where buyers stepped in over recent months.

Scenario 3: the attacker sells his Ether

Whatever Binance does, one risk remains for Ethereum. Stablecoins can be frozen, Ether cannot. According to Etherscan about 195,460 ETH sit on an attacker address, worth more than $440 million at 21:25 UTC. The address was funded with 0.1 ETH from the mixer Tornado Cash, a pattern investigators know from professional groups. Such loot is usually swapped in small tranches over days, and each tranche weighs on the Ether price.

How to act in the crypto crash now

• No leverage overnight. About $628 million in positions were force-closed within one hour on Thursday.
• Move coins to your own wallet. What sits on an exchange legally belongs to the exchange until you withdraw it. Our hardware wallet comparison shows suitable devices.
• Decide in advance. If you buy in tranches, use the levels in the table as buy zones. If you want protection, set a stop-loss before the price reaches it. How to hedge with a short is explained in our guide how to short Bitcoin.
• Wait for the signal from Binance. An official statement and normal withdrawals matter more than any chart. Asian trading starts around midnight UTC.

Where analysts see Bitcoin by year-end is collected in our Bitcoin price prediction, the bigger picture in Why is crypto down today? This article is not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and you can lose your entire investment.