XRP price prediction: the 100-day average crosses the 200-day average, 6.05 billion XRP move onto exchanges: what matters now

Here is what is documented: XRP's 100-day moving average sat 0.09 percent below the 200-day average on October 20 and 0.10 percent above it on October 21. On Friday morning the gap is 0.49 percent and the price stands at around $1.32. Our own reading follows further down: the crossover comes out of the calendar, not out of fresh demand, and reading it as a buy signal mistakes an arithmetic mechanism for a market. This piece shows both sides with numbers, names the levels that follow from them, and says what an investor in Germany can do with it today.

The 100-day average crossed the 200-day average on October 21

A moving average is the mean of the daily closing prices over a fixed number of days. The 100-day average therefore averages the last 100 closes, the 200-day average the last 200. Because every new day pushes the oldest one out of the window, a line like this moves even when nothing at all happens in the market.

We pulled XRP's daily closes for the past twelve months from CoinGecko, cleaned the series down to one value per calendar day, and calculated both averages ourselves. The result for October 23: the 100-day average stands at $1.286, the 200-day average at $1.280. The crossover falls on October 21. Before that the shorter line ran below the longer one throughout, with the widest gap in the series of 19.94 percent on May 11.

How to place the price over a horizon of months is set out in our XRP price prediction, which we keep updating with the current levels.

One limitation belongs here because it caps what we can say: our series goes back to October 24, 2025. The 200-day average can only be calculated from it from May 11, 2026 onwards. Whether the two lines had already crossed in this direction before that, our measurement does not say, so we do not claim it either.

The base effect lifts the 100-day average while the price loses 6.78 percent

This is where it gets interesting, because the two moves do not fit together. Since October 8 the 100-day average has risen 2.93 percent, from $1.2494 to $1.286. The price itself fell 6.78 percent over the same stretch, from $1.4208 to $1.3245. One line rises, the price falls, and both figures are correct.

The explanation sits in the window. Today's 100-day window runs from July 16 to October 23. Over the past 15 days, days have dropped out of that window whose closes averaged $1.1017, the first half of July. What came in were 15 days averaging $1.3460. Between old and new there are 24.4 cents per day. That swap lifts the mean without a single extra buyer.

In technical language this is called the base effect: a metric changes because the comparison period moves, not because the thing itself has changed. Even now, 29 of the 100 days in the window sit below $1.10, leftovers from the summer. Those days will drop out one by one over the coming weeks. As long as that continues, the 100-day average keeps rising even if XRP marks time.

The reason for the jump lies in August. From August 19 to 22, XRP climbed from $1.0011 to $1.4543, a gain of 45.3 percent in three trading days. Precisely those days now sit in the middle of the 100-day window and pull the mean up, while in the 200-day window they are diluted by much weaker months.

6.05 billion XRP flowed onto exchanges in 30 days

Alongside the crossover runs a move that points the other way. According to data from the analytics firm CryptoQuant, which Cointelegraph analysed on October 20, around 6.05 billion XRP flowed onto the observed trading venues in the 30 days to October 19. That is the highest reading since March. Binance alone accounted for roughly 2.46 billion tokens, or 40.7 percent.

What does that mean? Tokens that move onto an exchange sit there ready to sell. Nothing is necessarily sold as a result, and CryptoQuant itself names simply higher trading activity and reshuffling between wallets as possible reasons. But the supply that can hit the market at any moment is growing. For price formation it is exactly that supply that counts, not the balance in cold wallets.

Where things stand since October 21: whales out, exchanges full

On Tuesday we measured the other side of this: the outflows of large addresses from Binance stood at $49.7 million on a 90-day average, the lowest level in five years. Little has changed in the picture since then, and the combination is the genuinely notable part: large holders are taking less off the exchange than at any time in five years, while others are pushing more onto it than at any time since March.

The price has barely moved over those two days. XRP stood at $1.33 on October 21 and at around $1.32 on Friday morning, with a daily range between $1.30 and $1.33. Two strong opposing forces that cancel each other out produce exactly this picture: plenty of movement below the surface, little in the price.

The narrow support band sits at $1.286 and $1.280

Two levels follow from the crossover, and they lie close together, which makes them usable for the coming weeks. The 100-day average stands at $1.286, the 200-day average at $1.280. Between them there are 0.6 cents, or 0.49 percent. From the current price it is 2.99 percent down to the upper edge of that band.

A band like this matters because many automated trading systems align their orders with exactly these two lines. If the price holds above it, the picture of recent weeks stays intact. If it falls below and closes there, the crossover is effectively void again at once, because the new low then pulls the 100-day average down faster than the more sluggish 200-day average.

The last daily close below the 100-day average was on August 20 at $1.1051. XRP has been above it without interruption since then. That run is the real piece of information, not the crossover itself.

The 50-day average at $1.41 is the next resistance

On the upside, the shortest of the three lines stands in the way. The 50-day average sits at $1.4127, which is 6.24 percent above the current price. That line has been falling since the start of October because the strong September days are running out of its window one by one. If the price and the 50-day average keep converging, they meet arithmetically somewhere around $1.36 to $1.38.

For the range, some context: the series high is $2.6455 from October 27, 2025, the series low $0.9927 from August 17, 2026. XRP sits almost exactly in the middle of those two extremes today, and that explains why the long averages are meeting right now.

How to work out the gap to the 100-day average yourself

The calculation needs no tool and no subscription. Take the daily closes of the last 100 days, work out the mean, and divide the current price by that mean. A value above 1 means the price sits above the line. For October 23 that gives 1.3245 divided by 1.286, or 1.0299, a gap of 2.99 percent.

Two things matter here. First, take daily closes in one currency and from one source, otherwise you are mixing time zones and quotations. Second, check whether your series has gaps. Many free data sources deliver two values on some days and none at all on others, and the window shifts straight away. We cleaned our series down to exactly one value per calendar day before the calculation, otherwise the crossover would have slipped by a day.

Ripple backs the SEC rules, XRP's status stays open

Alongside the chart picture, the regulatory thread runs on. Ripple filed a 20-page comment on the draft rule Regulation Crypto Assets with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on October 20, the end of the comment period, Crypto Briefing reports. The core of the argument: an investment contract over a token does not automatically make the token itself a security. Ripple's chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty puts the cost of the legal clarification so far at more than $150 million.

For the price that changes nothing for now, and that is exactly the point where many reports go too far. The SEC has not adopted the rules; it is evaluating the submissions. A company's comment letter is not an administrative act. Deriving a change of status for XRP from it reads more into the document than is there.

For investors in Germany the US rule is not the governing framework anyway. MiCA applies here, and the practical consequence is a different one: the venue you buy through needs a licence in the EU. Which providers hold that licence and what they charge is in our comparison of crypto exchanges.

Holding period, custody and tax: what counts in Germany

Three points count concretely now. The first concerns the holding period. Investors who keep XRP in their own holdings for more than a year can so far take the gain tax-free in Germany. If tokens are shifted back and forth these days, the clock starts again for the quantity sold. Where the reform currently stands is summarised in our overview of the holding period.

The second point is custody, and it hangs directly on the 6.05 billion tokens on exchanges. What sits on a trading venue does not belong to you legally in the same way as a balance in your own wallet. If you do not intend to trade, there is nothing to gain on the exchange and a counterparty risk to carry. Which devices are suitable and what they cost is shown by our hardware wallet comparison.

The third point is documentation. Every transfer between exchange and wallet creates an entry that the tax office will later want to follow. If you reshuffled in October, it is better to pull the records together now than in the spring.

Our reading of the crossover

From the newsroom's point of view, the crossover of October 21 is a calendar effect and not a demand signal. Our own numbers support that: the 100-day average rose 2.93 percent since October 8 while the price gave up 6.78 percent, and the swap inside the window, with a difference of 24.4 cents per day, explains the entire move. Against it stands the fact that crossovers like this are traded by automated systems and can therefore have an effect of their own, short-lived though it may be. Add to that the band at $1.286 and $1.280, which does exist as a support line, however it came about.

What would tip that reading can be named: a daily close above $1.41, meaning above the 50-day average, or a clear drop in exchange inflows below the level of mid-August. Both are measurable, and both are outstanding for now. On October 28 the US Federal Reserve also decides on the policy rate, and experience says that date moves the whole market more than any moving average.

XRP at $1.32: the crossover alone brings no demand

1. Write down the two levels of $1.286 and $1.280 and check at the end of the month whether XRP has stayed above them. If the price falls below and closes there, the crossover is done. If you are looking for an EU-licensed exchange for that, you will find one in our exchange comparison.
2. Go through your holdings and separate what you want to trade from what is meant to sit still. The part that sits still belongs in your own custody, and the hardware wallet comparison names the devices along with their prices.
3. Pull your October transactions together now, while the records are at hand. The tools for that are in our comparison of tax software.

(As of October 23, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)