Bitcoin price at $74,600: what matters in the US consumer price data

What is confirmed: bitcoin trades at around $74,600, or about €66,500, on Tuesday morning, November 10, and at 2:30 pm CET the US Labor Department publishes consumer prices for October. This time there will be no official annual rate, because there is no comparison figure for October 2025. Our assessment follows further down: what matters for the price today is above all the month-on-month core rate, with an eye on a possible Federal Reserve rate hike on December 9.

Anyone checking the bitcoin price right now sees a quiet night. Between midnight and 6 am CET, BTC moved within a range of around $1,100 on Coinbase, with the high shortly after midnight at $75,350 and the low at around 4 am at $74,253. The market's attention is on the afternoon.

Bitcoin price on Tuesday morning: $74,600 after a quiet night

According to CoinGecko, bitcoin stands at $74,597 on Tuesday morning, 0.3 percent below Monday morning's level. Over seven days it is down 2.8 percent. The range of the past 24 hours runs from $73,709 to $75,477. Ether and Solana fell slightly more over the same period, by 1.0 and 1.9 percent, while XRP lost 1.2 percent.

The comparison with last week shows how far the price has already fallen. On Wednesday, November 4, bitcoin peaked at $81,131 on Coinbase. The following day the daily candle closed at $75,969, and since then the price has not ended a single day above $76,400. That leaves it a good 8 percent below the November 4 high.

Since Monday: the 200-day average at $73,170 has held

Yesterday morning bitcoin stood at around $74,800, and in our bitcoin price article on Monday the 200-day average at around $73,170 was the level of the week. A 200-day moving average is the average of the closing prices of the past 200 trading days; many traders read it as the dividing line between a long-term uptrend and downtrend.

The situation has eased slightly since then. According to Coinbase's daily candles, Monday's low was $73,636, a good $450 above the line. The daily candle closed at 1 am CET at $75,259, around $500 above Sunday's close. Sunday's low of $73,477 was not revisited either. On Monday morning bitcoin had also dropped below Strategy's cost basis; what that means for the largest corporate holder is set out in our bitcoin price prediction from Monday.

Sentiment has improved too. The Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me stands at 32 points on Tuesday, after 29 on Monday and 28 on Sunday. It remains in fear territory, but somewhat further from extreme fear than at the weekend.

US consumer prices for October: why there is no official annual rate today

Today's peculiarity has its origins a year ago. The shutdown of the US federal government lasted from October 1 to November 12, 2025, a total of 43 days. During that time the Bureau of Labor Statistics could not collect prices for October 2025 and never published a consumer price index for that month. This is pointed out, among others, in the preview from investingLive.

Without the October 2025 index level, there is no base for the 12-month change. The agency is therefore publishing no official annual rate for October 2026 today, either for the headline rate or for the core rate. The core rate is inflation excluding volatile energy and food prices; it is the figure the Fed watches most closely.

For the market this shifts the focus. The headline that usually flashes across screens at 2:31 pm is the annual rate. Today it will be the change on the previous month, from which every firm will calculate its own annual figure. Based on FactSet's median estimates, that works out to an annual rate of about 4 percent for the headline figure and about 2.8 percent for the core rate. In September the official figures were 3.7 and 2.6 percent. These estimates are not official figures, and slightly different numbers will circulate today depending on the calculation method.

October consensus: 0.3 percent headline, 0.2 percent core

A cooling compared with September is expected. According to investingLive, economists expect consumer prices for October to rise by about 0.3 percent on the month and the core rate by about 0.2 percent. The FactSet survey is slightly lower for the headline rate at 0.24 percent. In September prices had still risen by 0.6 percent, and the core rate by 0.3 percent.

Most of the expected easing comes from petrol, which got cheaper in October. Petrol plays no part in the core rate, and several previews see the risk there skewed rather to the upside. For bitcoin this means a low headline rate alone will only calm bond markets if the core rate follows suit.

What a deviation of 0.1 percentage points does

The core and headline rates are published rounded to one decimal place. A core rate of 0.3 instead of 0.2 percent sounds small, but annualised it comes to roughly 3.7 rather than 2.4 percent. That is exactly why yields and the dollar often react sharply in the minutes after 2:30 pm, even though the deviation from consensus is a single digit.

December rate hike: what the market is pricing in for December 9

Behind the nervousness lies an expectation the crypto market has not seen for a long time: a rate hike. After Friday's jobs report, with 165,000 new non-farm payrolls and an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, the priced-in probabilities of a quarter-point move at the December 9 meeting rose sharply. The figures vary: TipRanks cites more than 65 percent, while a CCN report republished by Yahoo Finance puts it at around 81 percent, up from about 72 percent before the jobs data.

The Fed left rates unchanged in October. An inflation figure in line with expectations would not rule out further tightening, according to investingLive. Only a clearly weaker core rate could noticeably lower the probabilities.

Inflation, yields and ETF flows: how the data reach the bitcoin price

Bitcoin does not react to inflation data directly but through two channels. The first is US Treasury yields. When they rise, it becomes more attractive for large investors to park money safely and earn interest rather than put it into volatile assets. According to Marex, the yield on ten-year US Treasuries stood at 4.85 percent at the start of the week, slightly lower than before; this is quoted in the CoinDesk Daybook on Monday.

The second channel is the US spot bitcoin ETFs. When an investor redeems shares, the fund has to sell or hand over bitcoin. In the first week of November, net outflows totalled $1.282 billion according to SoSoValue, the most since the end of June, and outflows dominated on four of five trading days. That puts the funds back at around $914 million in net outflows for the year to date. Monday's figures were not yet available on Tuesday morning.

Marex sums up the situation soberly: lower yields help at the margin but are not enough to offset the persistent outflows. In line with this, the Nasdaq has also posted five losing weeks in a row. Bitcoin is currently moving with tech stocks rather than against them.

What a hot print means for leveraged positions

Anyone trading with leverage should know the date. A liquidation is the forced closure of a leveraged position once the posted collateral is no longer sufficient. Recently, according to CoinDesk, bets on rising prices worth more than $1 billion were forcibly closed. In the minutes after a data release, spreads tend to widen, and stop orders just below round numbers are especially easily triggered.

Bitcoin levels for Tuesday: $75,500 above, $73,636 below

On the upside, the area around $75,350 to $75,500 is the first hurdle: that is where the overnight high was, and on Monday the price turned lower at the same point. Above that lies the November 6 high at $76,306. A daily close above it would be the first sign that the series of lower highs since November 4 is ending.

On the downside, three levels matter. The overnight low at $74,253 is the first and Monday's low at $73,636 the second. Below that come Sunday's low at $73,477 and the 200-day average at around $73,170. If the price falls below Sunday's low after the data, the line returns to centre stage; in our Monday analysis, it is where the direction of the correction will be decided.

If you want to buy now, use an exchange with a European licence. Since the transition periods ended, providers in Germany need a licence under the EU's MiCA regulation; which platforms have one and what they cost is shown in our crypto exchange comparison. A limit order rather than a market order prevents you from buying at a worse price than intended in the turbulent minutes around 2:30 pm.

Bitcoin in euros: €66,500, holding period and loss offsetting

In euros, bitcoin costs around €66,500 on Tuesday morning, according to CoinGecko. For investors in Germany, the holding period determines how a sale is taxed: gains on coins you hold for more than a year are tax-free. If you sell within a year, it counts as a private disposal, and gains remain tax-free only up to an exemption limit of €1,000 a year. Above that limit the entire gain is taxable, not just the portion above it. Where the political debate about the holding period stands is summarised in our overview of the crypto holding period reform.

After a drop of a good 8 percent since November 4, many purchases made in the autumn are under water. A loss from a sale within the one-year period can be offset against gains from other private disposals in the same year. Which coins you bought when and at what price is determined by a tax tool using the FIFO method, under which the coins bought first are treated as sold first. Our crypto tax software comparison gives an overview. Whether a sale makes sense for tax purposes in an individual case is a question for a tax adviser.

Our view: without an end to ETF outflows, bitcoin lacks a buyer

In the editorial team's view, today's consumer prices will decide the size of the move rather than the direction of the week. The evidence: the probability of a December rate hike is between 65 and 81 percent depending on the source, the US funds lost $1.282 billion last week, and the price has not closed a day above $76,400 since November 4. A core rate of 0.2 percent or lower should ease rate worries and could carry bitcoin above $75,500. A core rate of 0.4 percent or more suggests that the levels around $73,500 and the 200-day average will be tested again.

Arguing against a purely negative reading are the facts that the 200-day average held on Monday, the fear index has improved from 28 to 32 points since the weekend, and bond yields have recently eased. A sustained rise, in our view, still needs a turnaround in ETF flows; the inflation figure alone will not deliver it. This assessment is not a recommendation to buy. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and a total loss is possible.

Bitcoin on inflation day: below $73,477 the 200-day average moves into focus

Little is likely to be decided for the bitcoin price before 2:30 pm. After that, three things count: the month-on-month core rate compared with 0.2 percent, the reaction of ten-year US Treasury yields, and the ETF figures for Monday and Tuesday, which are usually available by Wednesday morning. Above sits the $75,500 level, below are Sunday's low of $73,477 and the 200-day average at around $73,170. If you want to buy bitcoin, you will find the MiCA-licensed providers in the exchange comparison above; if you want to sell, check the holding period of each purchase first.

(As of November 10, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)