Bitwise lifts its bitcoin price target for 2036 to $1.6 million

Bitwise has raised its bitcoin price target for 2036 to $1.6 million from $1.3 million, projecting a 34.3% compound annual return over the next decade. The forecast, published on October 28, 2026, rests on larger estimates for the markets bitcoin competes in—not a higher assumed share of those markets.

Key takeaways

• Bitwise’s base case assumes bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market by 2036.
• Projected institutional bitcoin demand totals $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion over the next decade.
• The firm’s 2036 scenarios range from $130,686 to $3.67 million.
• Bitwise lowered its forecast for average bitcoin volatility to 27.8%.

What drives Bitwise’s higher bitcoin price target for 2036?

Bitwise increased its estimates for both the global store-of-value market and institutional investment assets while leaving bitcoin’s assumed market shares unchanged. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan outlined that distinction in a client note accompanying the firm’s 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.

The asset manager now expects the store-of-value market to reach $110 trillion in 2036, up from $91 trillion in its previous forecast. Its estimate for institutional investment assets rose to $303 trillion from $216 trillion.

The $1.6 million base case assumes bitcoin takes 25% of the first market and 1% of the second by 2036.

Bitwise’s projected 34.3% compound annual growth rate compares with average forecasts of 6.7% for U.S. equities and 10.8% for private equity, drawn from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock and Vanguard. Those comparisons put its expected bitcoin return at around five times the equity forecast and three times the private-equity forecast.

Institutional demand meets limited bitcoin issuance

Bitwise projects institutional bitcoin demand of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion over the next decade, compared with $14 billion in annual issuance through mining. Its demand calculation combines the institutional asset pool with an expected bitcoin allocation of 1% to 5%.

The report cites Boston Consulting Group’s estimate that institutional investors control roughly $147 trillion in assets. Bitwise expects allocations from that pool to generate the projected demand.

On the supply side, the report counts 20.1 million bitcoin in circulation, equivalent to 95.7% of the cryptocurrency’s maximum supply of 21 million coins.

Bear and bull scenarios span $130,686 to $3.67 million

Bitwise’s bitcoin price target for 2036 ranges from $130,686 in its bear case to $3.67 million in its bull case. Those scenarios assume bitcoin captures 2.5% and 50% of the global store-of-value market, respectively, versus 25% in the base case.

The firm also lowered its projected average bitcoin volatility over the next decade to 27.8%, compared with 32.9% in last year’s report.

Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen said deeper institutional adoption points toward smaller price swings, although he expects bitcoin to continue experiencing sharp downturns. Citing institutional inflows, demand for store-of-value assets and limited supply, Rasmussen said Bitwise expects bitcoin to outperform every other major institutional asset through 2036.

Shallower drawdowns and a larger store-of-value share

Bitwise points to bitcoin’s approximately 53% decline from its October 2025 record above $126,000 as evidence of a shallower market correction. Previous drawdowns reached 86%, 84% and 77% after the record highs of 2013, 2017 and 2021, respectively.

Hougan cited the smaller pullback, regulatory progress and growing demand for hard assets such as gold as reasons for the firm’s more optimistic outlook. He also acknowledged that gold had attracted much of the demand for store-of-value assets and that bitcoin ETF purchases had slowed.

Institutions nevertheless continued increasing bitcoin exposure during the downturn, Hougan said. He described bitcoin as a nearly $2 trillion asset increasingly held by investors he called among the world’s most respected.

Hougan noted that bitcoin’s portion of the store-of-value market has grown from under 1% ten years ago to above 5% today.

Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.