Solana Price Prediction: SOL Sits on Its 200-Day Line as DEX Volume Hits $2.39 Billion

Analysis: What is established is that Solana trades at $89.19 on Thursday evening, 0.6 percent above its 200-day moving average at $88.93. At the daily low the price stood at $88.88, briefly below it. Our assessment follows further down: whether this line holds depends less on the chart than on the blockchain's own data, and on this day those data point in two different directions.

While the price lost 6.5 percent in 24 hours, volume on decentralised exchanges on the Solana blockchain rose 26.8 percent to $2.39 billion. Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our Solana price prediction. This piece sorts out today: the levels, the blockchain figures and the one deadline that matters more to investors in Germany in November than any price.

Where things stand: SOL at $89.19, right on the 200-day line

Solana costs $89.19 on Thursday evening. That is down 6.5 percent on the day, 12.5 percent on the week and 26.0 percent on the month. The daily high was $96.97, the daily low $88.88. The range of just over eight dollars between high and low equals nine percent of the price and is the widest since the slump at the end of October. Market capitalisation stands at $52.7 billion, trading volume across all venues at $4.49 billion. The figures come from CoinGecko, as of November 5.

The decline did not originate in the crypto market itself. On the Nasdaq, chip stocks lost up to eleven percent, Bitcoin fell 5.3 percent to $76,046 and Ether 7.2 percent to $2,248. Solana fell harder than both, which is the usual pattern in downturns: a coin with a market value of $52.7 billion has thinner order books than one worth $1.53 trillion, and the same amount of selling moves it further. Solana is currently 69.6 percent below its all-time high of $293.31.

At this point one number matters most for the chart. The 200-day moving average, the mean of the closing prices of the past 200 days, sits at $88.93. It is the slowest of the common averages and therefore the one against which trend changes are measured. Solana has not closed a single day below it since the summer.

$2.39 billion in one day: trading on the Solana blockchain picks up

On the other side stands the activity of the blockchain itself. Decentralised exchanges on Solana turned over $2.39 billion in 24 hours, 26.8 percent more than the day before. Over seven days volume adds up to $12.39 billion, up 37.6 percent on the previous week. The data are published by DefiLlama, which reads the volume of individual trading programs directly from the blocks.

The mechanism behind this is well known and worth explaining, because rising volume on a losing day is easily misread. When a price falls quickly, volume comes from three sources: positions funded with borrowed money are forcibly closed, trading bots arbitrage price gaps between centralised and decentralised venues, and holders swap coins into dollar tokens. All three generate volume without a single investor having to buy anything new. A 26.8 percent jump in volume on a day with a 6.5 percent loss therefore shows activity, not demand.

The weekly figure says more. $12.39 billion over seven days is a third more than the week before, even though the price was lower on average during that week. Per dollar of market value, considerably more was traded on Solana over the past seven days than in October. That is the part that cannot be explained by liquidations alone.

Solana network fees: 40 percent lower in 30 days

The second blockchain metric points the other way. Fees paid by users for transactions totalled $11.2 million in 24 hours and $364.2 million over 30 days. That is a decline of 40.3 percent on the previous month, again according to DefiLlama.

Fees are the price of space in a block, and that price rises when more users want to get a transaction through at the same time than fits into the next block. A 40.3 percent drop in a month therefore means competition for block space has eased. Part of it is computing work measured in dollars and falls simply because SOL has become cheaper. The rest traces back to the business that drove fees in October, namely trading in newly launched tokens, which has calmed noticeably since the turn of the month.

For valuation, this is the uncomfortable number. Anyone who justifies Solana by the blockchain's revenue has to explain why that revenue fell by two fifths within a month while the number of coins keeps growing.

TVL measured in SOL: 56.32 million SOL locked in Solana applications

Between the two figures sits a third that gives a misleading picture when measured in dollars. The capital deposited in Solana applications, known as total value locked or TVL, fell from $6.556 billion to $5.380 billion in 30 days, or 17.9 percent. Over the same period the price lost 26.0 percent. Dividing TVL by the SOL price of the same day gives the number of coins actually held in the applications.

Date	TVL in dollars	SOL price	TVL in SOL
October 6	$6.556bn	120.76	54.29m
October 29	$5.695bn	102.32	55.66m
November 5	$5.380bn	95.51	56.32m

In dollar terms Solana lost almost a fifth of its deposited capital; in coin terms it gained 3.7 percent. The amount of SOL that users leave in lending programs, trading programs and liquidity pools did not shrink in a month with a 26 percent price drop, but rose from 54.29 million to 56.32 million coins. cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on November 5, 2026, based on daily Solana TVL values and daily SOL closing prices for three reference dates.

One thing is solid: the dollar value of Solana applications is currently falling almost entirely in line with the price, not against it. Reading the dollar figure alone as evidence of capital flight means counting the price twice.

Looking back at the $89 mark: the price dipped briefly to $88.88

A number already stood here yesterday. In our Solana analysis of November 4, the $89 mark was the line that would decide the next move. Since then, Solana opened November 5 at $95.51, climbed to $96.97 and gave all of it back over the course of Thursday. The sell-off on US exchanges began around midday, and by evening the price stood at $88.88, below the mark for the first time.

The difference between the daily low and the daily close matters here. On a closing basis, the last value below $88.88 dates from August 21 this year, at $87.65. Solana then held the zone for eleven weeks. Thursday touched it again for the first time but has not broken it yet. What was a round number yesterday is a measured average today: the 200-day line sits at $88.93, almost exactly where the price turned.

Downside levels: $88.93, the August low and the $73 zone

Three levels can be justified on the downside. The first is the 200-day line at $88.93. It matters because a daily close below it would be the first such confirmation in eleven weeks, and trading programs that react to moving averages query exactly this value.

The second lies at $87.65, the level of August 21. Just over one percent separates it from today's line, and together they form a narrow zone rather than a single line. The third level, at $73.62, is considerably lower and dates from August 8, the last major starting point of the summer recovery. Below that, the low of the year is June 7 at $62.18.

Anyone trading with borrowed money should work through these distances before the next trading day. From the current price to $87.65 is 1.7 percent, to $73.62 it is 17.5 percent. With five-times leverage the first figure alone means a loss of more than eight percent of the capital deployed, and the margin call threshold at many venues sits below that.

Upside levels: $95.51 and the 100-day line at $98.74

On the upside, the first hurdle is the day's own open at $95.51, followed by the daily high at $96.97. Only above that does the area begin where the shorter moving averages stack up: the 100-day line at $98.74, the 20-day line at $100.29 and the 50-day line at $108.58.

Put plainly, the picture is this. Solana trades below all three shorter averages and 9.4 percent below the 100-day line. A price that runs below the fast averages and rests on the slow one is in a downtrend that is not yet confirmed but not over either. The monthly high of October 6 at $120.76 is 35 percent away.

Our assessment: the case for and against a floor at the 200-day line

In the newsroom's view, two findings weigh against each other this evening. The blockchain data argue that the zone will hold: $12.39 billion in weekly volume on decentralised exchanges, up 37.6 percent, and TVL measured in SOL that rose from 54.29 million to 56.32 million coins in 30 days. In addition, the 200-day line has not been broken at any daily close since August 21.

The fees argue against it. A 40.3 percent decline in 30 days to $364.2 million shows that demand for block space has eased, and block space is the product Solana sells. Add the chart, with three moving averages above the price, and a trigger that lies outside the crypto market. As long as Nasdaq stocks keep falling, the best blockchain statistics are of little help.

Our conclusion: the zone between $87.65 and $88.93 is where the coming weeks will be decided, and the on-chain data give reason not to write it off too early. That is not an all-clear, because the fee figure openly contradicts it. No recommendation to buy or sell can be derived from this; with crypto assets, a total loss of the capital invested is possible.

Offsetting losses by December 31: the one-year rule under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act

For investors in Germany, a price of $89 has a tax dimension that bites in two months. Private sales of crypto assets count as private disposals under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act (EStG). The decisive factor is the one-year period: anyone who has held a coin for more than twelve months sells tax-free. Anyone who sells within twelve months pays tax on the gain at their personal rate, provided all private disposal gains of the year together reach the exemption limit of 1,000 euros.

The rule cuts both ways, and that is exactly what gets overlooked when prices fall. A loss from a sale after the twelve months have passed is disregarded for tax purposes. It cannot be offset against anything. Only a loss from a sale within the one-year period counts, and even then only against gains from other private disposals in the same year, such as gains from other coins or from gold. Any remaining losses are carried forward to the following year by the tax office.

That leads to a concrete check for this weekend. Anyone holding SOL at a loss should look up in the purchase record when the position was opened. If the purchase was less than twelve months ago and there are gains from other crypto sales on the books for 2026, then a sale before December 31 is a different matter for tax purposes than the same sale in January. If the purchase was longer ago, a loss sale brings no tax benefit. With several purchases, the exchange's own consumption order applies, which in Germany is usually first in, first out. Keeping proper track requires a record per acquisition; we have compared the common tools for this in our comparison of crypto tax tools.

Note that a reform of the holding period is currently under political discussion. Until a change is adopted, the one-year period applies unchanged; we track the latest status on our page on the crypto holding period and its reform. This section is not a substitute for tax advice.

Staking income at $89: what goes into the tax return as income received

The second German particularity affects everyone who has delegated their SOL to a validator. Staking income is not a disposal but other income under Section 22 No. 3 of the German Income Tax Act. It becomes taxable the moment it is received, valued at the price at that moment. For the current year an exemption limit of 256 euros applies; anyone who exceeds it pays tax on the full amount.

In practice this means rewards received this Thursday at $89.19 are recorded at that value, even if the coin costs $60 in December. Later price movements do not change this; they only enter the calculation on sale, under Section 23 again. Anyone who receives rewards monthly therefore needs a record with date, amount and price for each receipt, not an annual total.

If you have so far only seen your rewards as a number in the app, it is best to export the list of receipts now, while the year is still running. Which providers offer this list as a file, and how yields and lock-up periods differ, is shown in our comparison of staking providers.

SOL at the 200-day line: $98.74 is the level for a comeback

The situation comes down to three steps:

1. Mark the levels. On the downside the zone from $88.93 to $87.65, on the upside the 100-day line at $98.74. A daily close below the zone would be the first since August 21, a price above $98.74 the first sign of a return to the range of the short averages. If you need a price alert for this and do not yet use a venue with an alert function, you will find regulated providers in our comparison of crypto exchanges.
2. Find the purchase date. Check every SOL position at a loss for its acquisition date. Under twelve months, a loss before December 31 can be offset; beyond that, it cannot. The tools in our tax tool comparison provide the record per acquisition.
3. Save your staking receipts. Export the list of receipts with date, amount and price before the year ends, and check it against the 256-euro exemption limit. Which platform offers this export is listed in our staking comparison.

(As of November 5, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)