Bitcoin Price Prediction: Standard Chartered Sticks to $100,000 as ETFs Shed $729 Million in Two Days

Bitcoin traded at around $83,100 at midday on Friday, October 9, 2026 (CoinMarketCap). On Thursday the price had slipped as far as $80,337, its lowest level since mid-September. Standard Chartered, the British bank, is nonetheless sticking to its year-end target of $100,000. For the Bitcoin price prediction that leaves a gap of some 20 percent to close by December 31, with ETF investors currently withdrawing money rather than adding to their positions.

$729 million out in two days

US spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $484.9 million on Wednesday, October 7, and a further $244.1 million on Thursday, according to daily data from Farside Investors. BlackRock’s iShares fund alone saw $207.7 million pulled on Wednesday; on Thursday the largest single outflow was the $197.1 million that left Fidelity’s fund. October therefore stands at roughly $407 million of net outflows after six trading days, following the $2.65 billion of inflows September had delivered.

We set out why the price dropped below $81,000 on Thursday in our report on the crypto crash. The reasons behind that first large day of outflows are covered in our analysis of the ETF withdrawals.

Standard Chartered: $100,000 by year-end

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, confirmed his year-end target of $100,000 at the end of September, Yahoo Finance reported. The figure is already the product of two cuts: for the end of 2025 Kendrick had called for $200,000. Bitcoin missed each of his year-end targets for 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Measured against today’s price, reaching $100,000 would require a gain of a good 20 percent over barely 12 weeks. That is not out of the question. In the third quarter the price rose from $58,566 to $83,576, a gain of roughly 43 percent in three months (daily closing prices, CoinMarketCap). Back then, however, billions were arriving through the ETFs month after month. That tailwind has been missing so far in October.

Bitcoin price prediction: the levels on the chart

Around $87,100 is the level on the upside. Bitcoin reached it intraday on October 2 and has not traded higher since the summer. From today’s price that is just under 5 percent away. Only a close above it would show that buyers have regained the upper hand after the pullback.

Around $80,300 is the level on the downside, Thursday’s intraday low. The 50-day moving average runs just below it at roughly $79,800. If that zone holds, Thursday’s slide was a pullback within the uptrend that has been in place since the summer.

Around $75,800 is where the 200-day moving average sits; we calculated both lines from daily closing prices. Should the zone around $80,000 give way, that would be the next support, roughly 9 percent below today’s price.

Two paths to year-end

The path to $100,000 runs through the funds. If ETF flows turn positive again and bitcoin closes above $87,100, the $100,000 mark comes within reach. Bitcoin last traded there in mid-November 2025. The record high of a good $126,000, set on October 6, 2025, sits roughly 52 percent above today’s price and belongs to a different order of magnitude for this year.

The path back below $80,000 opens if the outflows persist. The 200-day moving average around $75,800 then comes into view, and the bank’s target slides into next year, as it did in each of the three years before.

What this means for investors in Europe

US spot bitcoin ETFs are generally not directly tradable for retail investors in Germany. If you want to buy bitcoin itself, our comparison of bitcoin savings plans lists the providers and their fees. A savings plan spreads entry over time and takes the question of the right day out of the equation, which matters in a week like this one.

On tax, the holding period still applies: in Germany, gains on bitcoin held for more than a year are tax-free. The Bundestag rejected a motion to abolish that period on Thursday, and we have summarised the details of the vote. If you still hold bitcoin bought at last year’s peak, our article on bitcoin tax explains what matters now when it comes to losses.

Bitcoin: What to take away

Three points sum up the situation. First, the $100,000 target stands, but it assumes a gain of a good 20 percent in twelve weeks, and Kendrick’s year-end targets came in too high three years running. Second, ETF flows turned in October: after $2.65 billion of inflows in September, $729 million left in two days. Third, as long as the zone around $80,000 holds, the uptrend since July is intact, and a close above $87,100 would be the signal for the next leg.

Whether entering at the current price is worthwhile is assessed in our analysis Is bitcoin a good buy at current prices? Crypto assets are highly volatile and a total loss is possible. This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell bitcoin.