Lose $1.25 and XRP's Lead Over Solana Could Start Looking Thin

Three Things to Know

• A new analyst timeline says Solana could overtake XRP in market value before 2028.
• XRP trades below both its key moving averages, though one momentum gauge hints sellers are tiring.
• The floor near $1.25 now decides whether XRP keeps a comfortable cushion over its rival.

XRP slipped again Thursday as a fresh analyst forecast argued Solana could claim the larger market value within about 14 months. The call leans on Solana's lead in fees, decentralized finance and tokenized assets.

That puts XRP's chart under a sharper lens. Each leg lower shrinks the gap Solana must close on its own. Traders now want to know if buyers will defend the nearest floor or let the cushion erode further.

Solana's Path Past XRP Gets a Timeline

A new analyst forecast puts a date on a flip many traders have debated. Analyst Alex Carchidi argues Solana could pass XRP in market value by or before the end of 2027. He rates the odds between fair and good. Carchidi holds SOL, and his publisher has positions in both coins.

On Oct 26, Solana was worth about $60.4 billion against XRP's $82.5 billion. SOL would need a gain of about 36% if XRP stood still. That works out to roughly 2.2% of outperformance a month until 2028. The two last swapped places on Dec 1, 2024, when XRP jumped ahead.

Usage data favors Solana. It held $4.9 billion in tokenized assets versus $642.2 million on the XRP Ledger. Daily fees reached $434,092 on Solana against $946 on XRP. DeFi deposits stood at $5.7 billion versus $38.9 million.

Solana's Alpenglow upgrade went live Oct 21 and finalizes transactions in about 150 milliseconds. The network handled 14% of tokenized stock volume in the third quarter and 19% in September.

Carchidi said XRP's lead would get harder to overcome if its ledger tops $2 billion in tokenized assets in early 2027. Price action offered little comfort on Oct 29. XRP led large-cap declines that morning, falling 3.00% to $1.29.

XRP Trades Under Both Averages After a Month of Losses

XRP (XRP) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

XRP traded near $1.30 at last check, down about 2% over the past day. The slide stretches further back. The token lost about 5% over the week and about 13% over the month.

Sellers have held the upper hand for weeks, and buyers have not mounted a real defense.

A moving average smooths out daily swings to reveal the underlying direction. XRP sits below its 50-day average near $1.36. The 200-day average sits just above it, around $1.37. Both lines are nearly flat and almost on top of each other.

That tight cluster matters for traders. Any rebound would run into two ceilings packed into a narrow band just above the price. Sellers who bought higher may use that zone to exit, which can cap a bounce quickly.

The selling has been orderly, though. Trend-strength readings show no strong trend in either direction. XRP is drifting lower without the sharp, high-volume flush that marks a capitulation. The token is simply leaking value while the averages overhead stay put.

Sellers Tire Even as Buyers Stay Shy

RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, reads about 42 on the daily chart. That puts XRP on the weak side of neutral. Buyers lack conviction, but the market is far from washed out.

The reading also leaves room for more downside. Oversold territory starts below 30, so sellers could push further before the gauge flashes exhaustion.

One indicator offers a small hint of relief. MACD, which tracks shifts in momentum, has crossed above its signal line. That usually means selling pressure is starting to fade.

It is an early sign only. Crossovers like this often fail when price stays pinned under its averages. XRP needs buyers to step in with real volume before the signal carries much weight.

The Floor That Guards the Gap

Support sits just below the current price. That level has caught XRP on recent dips, and it now carries extra weight. A clean break would leave little in the way until the next floor around $1.05.

A slide that deep would hurt XRP's standing against Solana. Every drop in price trims the market-cap cushion the token still holds.

The upside map is shorter. First resistance waits near $1.40, a level that sits just above both moving averages. A daily close above it would put XRP back over that crowded band and turn those ceilings into floors.

Even then, buyers face another hurdle. The next ceiling stands near $1.49, where earlier rallies stalled. Clearing it would mark a real shift in tone. The chart has not shown that strength yet.

Where the Next 72 Hours Could Take XRP

Two levels frame the next few sessions.

• Bullish: A daily close above the first ceiling would put XRP back over both averages and open a run toward the higher resistance. The setup fails if price falls back under the floor below.
• Bearish: A close under support would expose the deeper floor and hand Solana bulls easy ground. A recovery above the first ceiling would cancel that view and trap late sellers.

XRP Keeps the Lead While Momentum Fades

XRP still holds the bigger market value, and that lead stays intact while the floor under price holds. The chart leans the other way, though. Price sits under both averages, and buyers have yet to show up in force.

Risks cut both ways. A crypto-wide selloff or fresh upgrade headlines could move either coin sharply within hours.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.