Seoul chip stocks rally as Bank of Korea models a $100 billion AI export hit

South Korea’s Kospi opened at 5,638.34 on Tuesday, representing a 3.09% increase. Its first gain in four sessions.

The increase was due to chipmakers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix jumping on Anthropic’s IPO filing. The same day, the Bank of Korea told lawmakers that chip exports could drop by as much as $100 billion if U.S. tech firms pull back on artificial intelligence spending.

How is the market reacting to Anthropic’s IPO?

Anthropic, the developer behind the Claude AI model, made public its S-1 registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is seeking a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT, as Cryptopolitan reported.

The filing showed that the company’s first-half revenue was $16.29 billion, up roughly 1,300% year on year, with the operating loss narrowed to about $700 million from $2.14 billion. Those numbers eased worries that AI spending might never turn into profit. SK Telecom, which put $100 million into Anthropic early, rose by about 6%.

The KOSPI index opened 3.46% higher at 5,658.65 and climbed into the 5,700 range in early trading, triggering a five-minute program-buy sidecar around 10:13 a.m. Samsung finished up more than 4% and SK Hynix more than 5%. The Kosdaq added 2.29% to close at 743.83.

Foreign investors bought a net 592.7 billion won and institutions 282.1 billion won, while individuals sold a net 949.2 billion won.

What is the Bank of Korea being pessimistic about?

While equities recovered, the Bank of Korea, in a written reply to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, outlined what it called a “pessimistic scenario.” The reply states that if major U.S. technology companies cut back on their spending next year, South Korea could sell $50 billion to $100 billion less in chips than expected.

The bank’s model also assumes that chip prices will fall by 10%. In that case, South Korea would export less, causing its economy to grow about 0.4 percentage points slower next year. Its current account surplus would also fall well below the $430 billion the bank predicted for 2027.

Chips make up about half of South Korea’s exports, which is why the bank keeps warning about relying on them so heavily.

The bank’s filing showed that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle together spent $40 billion last year, are expected to spend $80 billion this year, and may reach $110 billion next year. However, the bank pointed out that it’s unclear how AI demand and the memory chip cycle will play out.

The Bank of Korea reported third-quarter real GDP growth of 1.0%, which is more than triple its August forecast of 0.3%. Exports rose by 2.3%, led by semiconductors, and the bank’s initial annual growth prediction of 3.3% is now expected to be revised higher.

Lee Dong-won, who is an official in charge of economic statistics, estimated that semiconductors alone were responsible for as much as half of that quarter’s growth. At the same time, private consumption declined 0.2%, the first decrease since late 2022.

SK Hynix is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Wednesday, followed by Samsung Electronics on Thursday. The outcome of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting and AI capital-spending guidance from U.S. big tech are also in play.

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