Bitcoin Demand Plunges to −348,000 BTC as Futures Selling Overwhelms Spot Recovery

CryptoQuant analyst RugaResearch has highlighted growing weakness in Bitcoin’s market structure, with its combined 30-day demand estimate falling to −348,000 BTC. The decline reflects mounting pressure from perpetual futures traders despite signs of stabilization in the spot market.

According to RugaResearch’s latest analysis, spot demand improved by approximately 29,500 BTC over three days beginning November 7, while derivatives activity deteriorated by 63,500 BTC, outweighing the recovery by more than twofold.

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Bitcoin’s 30-Day Demand Estimate Falls to November Low

RugaResearch’s findings show that Bitcoin’s combined demand estimate reached its weakest November reading on November 10. The decline reflects persistent selling pressure across spot and perpetual futures markets, despite signs of improvement in underlying spot activity.

During the three-day observation period, Bitcoin’s spot demand proxy improved with each daily reading. Nevertheless, the larger contraction in perpetual futures demand produced a net deterioration of approximately 34,000 BTC. Both demand components remained below zero, indicating that the improvement in spot activity had not restored positive demand.

Data from the CryptoQuant chart shows that negative demand has dominated several periods throughout 2026. The latest reading falls within the red region, which represents simultaneous contraction across spot and futures markets. Bitcoin’s price also weakened toward the $70,000 region near the chart’s latest observation.

Futures Market Weakness Complicates Bitcoin’s Recovery Outlook

RugaResearch identified the widening difference between spot and perpetual futures demand as a major obstacle to Bitcoin’s stabilization. The analyst explained that improving spot conditions could support consolidation, particularly if Bitcoin maintains its recent price lows.

Still, derivatives demand must stabilize before the combined indicator can establish a more convincing recovery. The analysis also highlighted the importance of Bitcoin’s rolling 30-day demand calculation, which changes as new observations replace older readings.

RugaResearch emphasized monitoring several consecutive closes to determine whether the improvement in spot activity represents a sustained change. For a stronger stabilization signal, the analyst wants spot demand to move toward zero while negative pressure from perpetual futures eases.

A flattening combined demand estimate alongside stable Bitcoin prices would strengthen the possibility of a developing trading range. Previous chart readings also showed periods of positive demand during August and September before market conditions weakened again.

The latest figures indicate that derivatives activity remains the primary source of deterioration in Bitcoin’s combined demand estimate. Bitcoin’s demand outlook remains negative as perpetual futures weakness outweighs improving spot conditions. A reduction in derivatives pressure could help establish stronger conditions for market stabilization.

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