XRP price prediction: Korea drives 17 percent of Upbit trading, and $1.08 is the level that decides

XRP is the most traded coin on South Korea's largest crypto exchange on Monday morning, and yet Korean investors are paying not a cent more than buyers in the US or Europe. On Upbit, XRP accounted for 17.0 percent of total trading volume in the 24 hours to 7:45 a.m. German time on Monday, more than Bitcoin at 11.6 percent. The price there was 1,475 won, roughly $1.086, practically level with the Kraken exchange in the US.

What is documented: XRP costs around $1.09 on Monday morning, about €0.97, its lowest since mid-August, and Korea is trading the coin more than any other. Our assessment follows further down: heavy volume without a price premium points to repositioning rather than a buying wave, and that is why the coming week hinges on a single level at $1.08.

Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered by our XRP price prediction with scenarios to 2030. This article stays with the next few days and takes an angle that European price boards do not show: the Korean spot market, where XRP is generating more volume than Bitcoin on Monday. cryptoticker.io collected the Upbit figures itself on Monday morning through the exchange's public interface; the dollar prices come from Kraken.

Upbit trading on Monday: 17 percent of volume goes to XRP

On Monday morning, Upbit reported combined 24-hour volume of 815.6 billion won across all 300 trading pairs against the Korean won, around $600 million at the European Central Bank's reference rate. Of that, 138.7 billion won, or about $102 million, went into XRP. Next came Bitcoin with 94.3 billion won, Ether with 73.6 billion won and the stablecoin Tether with 64.9 billion won. Solana reached 19.1 billion won, or 2.3 percent.

The surrounding picture is notable: the price on Upbit fell 3.3 percent within 24 hours, so the extra volume comes from a decline rather than a rally. High volume in falling markets means there is heavy trading on both sides. On its own, it says nothing about who ends up on top.

One term matters here: trading volume counts each completed transaction once, purchase and sale at the same time. $102 million in volume is therefore not $102 million of fresh money but $102 million that changed hands.

Kimchi premium: why the price gap between Seoul and the dollar exchanges matters

The kimchi premium is the percentage by which a coin is more expensive on Korean exchanges than on international venues, converted into dollars. It exists because South Korea regulates capital flows tightly: Korean investors trade in won on domestic exchanges, and traders cannot close price gaps with other countries as quickly as they would like. When Koreans want to buy more than sellers in the country are willing to part with, the price in Seoul rises above the world market.

For a price prediction, the premium is therefore a gauge of sentiment. If it is clearly above zero, Korean buyers are pushing into the market and accepting higher prices. If it is at zero or below, the Korean market is in balance or the selling side dominates. The premium thus measures something the volume figure alone does not show: the direction of the pressure.

The calculation for Monday morning: 1,475 won per XRP on Upbit divided by the ECB's euro reference rate for the dollar in won, 1,358.73 won (as of November 6), gives $1.0856. On Kraken, XRP cost $1.0859 at the same time. The gap is minus 0.03 percent and therefore noise. Against the stablecoin Tether, which cost 1,357 won on Upbit, the result is $1.087 and a premium of no more than 0.1 percent.

No premium at 1,475 won: Korea is not paying up to buy the dip

That gives a clear picture: Korean investors are trading XRP more than any other coin, but they are not pushing the price above the global level. Anyone buying in Seoul finds enough sellers there at the international price. These figures do not reveal a rush of bargain hunters determined to buy the slide to the August low at any price.

That matters more for the short-term prediction than it sounds. A recovery from a low needs buyers willing to pay higher prices. There is currently no signal of that in the Korean market, nor at the US spot ETFs (more on that below). Two important groups of buyers are holding back at the same time.

Upbit volume since November 5: from 178 to 77 billion won

A second look at Upbit's daily data shows that volume fell rather than rose as the decline unfolded. On November 5, the day XRP dropped from just over $1.30 to $1.21, Upbit turned over 178.2 billion won in XRP. On November 6 it was 143.1 billion won, on November 7 87.0 billion and on Sunday, November 8, just 76.8 billion won, each by Korean calendar day. The average for the 29 days before was 99.9 billion won.

The 17 percent share on Monday morning is also so high because the rest of the market is even quieter. Measured in won, the price on Upbit fell from 1,757 won on November 4 to 1,475 won on Monday, a decline of 16 percent. Volume that shrinks along with the price points to fading interest rather than panic selling. What is missing for a bottom is the typical counterpart: a day of very heavy volume on which the price stops falling.

Since Sunday's prediction: $1.11 has gone, $1.21 is far away

In Sunday's XRP price prediction, XRP stood at around $1.16, with the zone around $1.11 as support on the downside and the $1.21 and $1.34 levels on the upside. Since then XRP has lost more than 6 percent. The $1.11 level did not hold: Sunday closed on Kraken at $1.1117, just above it, and on Sunday evening the price dropped below it within an hour, as our report from Monday morning traces. Monday's intraday low was $1.0847.

The gap to the moving averages has widened as a result. The moving average is the average closing price over the preceding days and serves traders as a measure of the trend. Kraken's daily candles give a value of $1.268 for the 200-day average and $1.371 for the 50-day average. XRP is therefore trading around 14 percent below the long-term trend and around 21 percent below the medium-term one. Since the November 4 high of $1.34, the decline adds up to 19 percent.

The weekend finding on Binance, by contrast, is unchanged: the tradable XRP supply there is tight, but it has not yet triggered demand. Monday adds a second, independent observation. Buying pressure is also missing in the Korean spot market.

XRP spot ETFs: demand from the US is still missing

The US spot ETFs for XRP did not record a single day of net inflows in the entire first week of November, as Bitcoin.com News reported, citing the issuers' flow data. A spot ETF is an exchange-traded fund that actually buys and holds the coins; when money flows in, the issuer has to source XRP in the market. If inflows dry up, exactly this buyer is missing, the one that absorbed part of the supply in the months after the funds launched.

Figures for Monday are not yet available, as US exchanges only open in the afternoon German time. What matters for the weekly prediction is whether the funds attract money again after the weak weekend. A day with inflows would be the first signal since late October that institutional buyers are using the lower prices.

XRP Ledger: the LendingProtocolV1_2 lending fix awaits the validators

Away from the price, developers on the XRP Ledger, the blockchain behind XRP, are working on a fix for the new lending protocol. According to U.Today on Sunday, a proposed change called LendingProtocolV1_2 is meant to govern how loan repayments are rounded, so that the outstanding amount matches the repayment schedule exactly after every instalment. For users this has little consequence today.

On the XRP Ledger, such a proposed change is called an amendment. It only takes effect once at least 80 percent of trusted validators have supported it continuously for two weeks. According to the report, no vote has been announced yet. For the prediction over the next few days this plays no role, but it does for the longer picture: use of the ledger for lending and stablecoins is growing, it just has not yet translated into demand for XRP itself.

David Schwartz, Ripple's former chief technology officer, replied on X on Saturday to the question of whether he had nothing to do with the weak price. He wrote that he could probably not honestly claim to have nothing to do with the price of XRP, but very little, as crypto.news reports. The remark goes to the heart of it: technical progress on the ledger rarely moves the price directly.

Our assessment: trading without a premium is repositioning, not a buying wave

In the editorial team's view, the evidence on Monday points more towards a further sideways-to-lower phase than to a quick recovery. The evidence: the kimchi premium is zero, Upbit volume has fallen from 178 to 77 billion won a day since November 5, and the US spot ETFs took in no money for an entire week. Three independent sources of demand show no upward pressure at the same time.

The counterargument: falling volume without a premium can also mean that those willing to sell have already sold and the market is calming down. The tight supply on Binance fits this picture. A single day of ETF inflows or a premium in Korea of more than 1 percent would change our assessment. Until one of those happens, XRP remains vulnerable in our view to a relapse into the August range around $1. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

Three scenarios for XRP to the end of November

The scenarios are derived from the levels in Kraken's daily candles. Each describes a condition, not a forecast.

• Weak: If XRP closes a day below $1.08, the range between $0.985 and $1.04, where XRP traded from August 10 to 18, comes within reach. Below that, XRP would fall under $1 for the first time since August.
• Sideways: If the zone between $1.08 and $1.13 holds, XRP swings back and forth until ETF flows set a direction. Monday's intraday high was $1.125.
• Recovery: Only a daily close above $1.17, Sunday's high, brings last week's $1.21 back into view. From there, just under 9 percent would still be missing to the 200-day average at $1.268.

The level that decides the next few days is therefore $1.08. The figure does not come from a textbook: it was the intraday low on August 20, from which XRP jumped to $1.70 within two days. Monday's low of $1.0847 hit that spot almost exactly. Between $1.08 and $1.00, XRP traded on only one day in August, August 19. If the level breaks, there is barely any trading history down to the August range that would slow the price. If it holds, the decline from Sunday evening has found a first foothold.

Buying XRP from Germany: euro pair, limit order and holding period

Anyone trading in a market like this should watch three things. First, the venue: since December 30, 2024, crypto exchanges serving customers in the EU need authorisation under the European MiCA regulation or a transitional permit. Our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges gives an overview of authorised providers. A direct euro pair saves you the detour via the dollar or a stablecoin; on Kraken, XRP traded at €0.974 against the euro on Monday morning.

Second, order size and timing. On Sunday evening, XRP fell by more than 5 percent within an hour, at a time when the order book was thin. A limit order sets the maximum price at which you buy and, in minutes like those, protects you from a fill far from the expected price. Leveraged positions are particularly risky in this situation, because brief swings are enough to force a position closed.

Third, tax. In Germany, gains on XRP are tax-free after a holding period of more than one year; if you sell earlier, the gain is taxed at your personal rate once all private disposal gains in the year together reach €1,000. Losses from a sale within the holding period can be offset against such gains. Where the planned reform of the holding period stands is summarised on our page on the status of the crypto holding period reform. An overview of exchanges offering XRP is available in the comparison of the best crypto exchanges.

XRP price prediction for November: below $1.08, the August range draws closer

1. Check the venue: Only buy XRP on an exchange with MiCA authorisation and a euro pair; the exchange comparison shows the options.
2. Cap the order: In thin trading hours, use a limit order instead of a market order. The broker comparison shows which platforms handle this cleanly.
3. Record the holding period: Note the purchase date so you can prove the one-year period; a crypto tax tool does this automatically.

In the short term, XRP hinges on three signals: the kimchi premium in Korea, daily ETF flows in the US and the $1.08 level. As long as none of the three turns, the buyer who would lift the price out of the area of the August low is missing.

(As of November 9, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)