HYPE Could Slide to $60 Before Any ICE Approval, as Analysts Doubt the Upbit Pump

Three Things to Know

• South Korea's two largest exchanges listed HYPE this week, yet the token kept sliding.
• HYPE has lost its 50-day average, and momentum gauges still favor sellers.
• The 200-day line just below price now stands as the last floor before a deeper drop.

Hyperliquid's token got the kind of exposure most projects chase: won trading on Upbit and Bithumb. Fresh Korean demand did not stop the selling, and HYPE stayed pinned near weekly lows.

The timing hurts. The rally sparked by ICE's futures plan has fully unwound, whales have sold, and ETF flows turned negative. Traders now face one question. Can the longer uptrend hold while everyone waits on a CFTC decision that has no date?

Korean Listings Land on a Token Already in Retreat

Upbit and Bithumb, South Korea's two largest exchanges, opened HYPE trading against the won on Nov 10. Upbit also added BTC and USDT pairs from 06:00 UTC. The exchange blocked buy orders for about five minutes at launch and allowed only limit orders for the first two hours.

Analysts doubt the listing will deliver a lasting lift. Research firm Four Pillars found in a study that Upbit listing spikes have been fading. Tiger Research analyst Jay Jo said Korean traders often mistake listing spikes for good news. Korean volume also pays no fees into Hyperliquid's Assistance Fund, the buyback program that had spent over $1.26 billion as of Oct 10.

The token arrived in Seoul already in retreat. HYPE climbed from a $76 close on Oct 25 to about $89 four days later. That jump came after ICE revealed plans for Hyperliquid-based US perpetual futures, which still need CFTC approval. The whole gain is now gone.

Two whales sold $109 million of HYPE on Oct 31. US Hyperliquid ETFs posted a $2.7 million net outflow on Nov 9. Most of it came from 21Shares THYP, while Bitwise BHYP drew small inflows. HYPE ended the week as the worst performer against BTC, ETH and SOL.

Losing the 50-Day Line Leaves the 200-Day as the Last Floor

Hyperliquid (HYPE) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

HYPE traded near $72 at last check, flat over 24 hours. The Korean listings brought fresh volume but no bounce.

The weekly loss stands at about 15%. Over 30 days the token is down roughly 16%, which means almost all of the monthly damage came in the last seven days.

That drop pushed HYPE under its 50-day moving average, now near $81. A moving average smooths out daily swings to show the underlying trend. When price falls below one, that line tends to act as a ceiling, because traders who bought near it often sell on any return to break even.

The ICE rally had carried HYPE well above that average. Bulls now need a climb of more than 10% just to test the line again.

Longer-term charts look calmer. It sits near $70, just under the current price. This longer line tracks the trend across most of the year, and HYPE has stayed above it through the latest selling.

That makes the 200-day the last floor still intact. A daily close below it would signal that the decline has moved from a short pullback into a break of the longer uptrend.

Sellers Still Hold the Momentum Edge

RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, stands at 35 on the daily chart. That reading is weak but sits above the oversold mark of 30. In plain terms, sellers have pressed hard without exhausting themselves yet. HYPE has room to slide further before bargain hunters usually step in for a reflex bounce.

The MACD, which compares short and longer price averages, remains below its signal line. That means momentum is still pointing down.

Trend strength readings show a directional move taking shape, with sellers leading it. A trend that is still forming can gain force over the coming sessions.

Where a Break Below $63.77 Would Send HYPE

The nearest resistance sits near $76.15, just above where HYPE traded when the Korean pairs opened. A daily close back over that level would be the first sign that buyers are stepping in.

Above that, HYPE faces a hurdle near $83, close to the 50-day zone. A close above it would reopen the range HYPE held after the ICE news. Bulls would then have a case that the October selling was a pullback inside a larger advance.

On the downside, the path is steeper. The nearest support lies near $64, a short drop below the 200-day line. Losing both in quick succession would leave little in the way of further selling.

Below that, the chart shows open air down to the second support near $55. That target sits past the $60 risk named in the headline. A move there would wipe out a large share of the year's gains.

Two Paths for the Next Three Days

The coming sessions likely hinge on which side of the 200-day line holds.

• Bullish: A daily close above the nearest resistance, just over the Seoul launch price, would put the second resistance near the 50-day zone in play. A close back under the 200-day average would cancel that setup.
• Bearish: A daily close below the 200-day average would open a drop toward the nearest support, then the second support. A reclaim of the nearest resistance would end that bearish case.

Listing Hype Cannot Replace a Regulatory Catalyst

HYPE remains in a downtrend until one of two things happens. The CFTC could rule on ICE's futures plan, or buyers could reclaim the 50-day average.

Leverage is the bigger near-term risk. Traders had stacked $612 million in leveraged longs below price by Nov 2. A break through support could force those positions to close quickly and deepen the drop.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.