XRP price prediction: funding rate at a 13-month high, what it means for your coins

XRP trades at $1.058, or €0.95, on Wednesday morning, according to CoinGecko at around 7:40 a.m. CET. That is 3.8 percent lower than 24 hours earlier, 16.4 percent lower than a week ago and roughly 30 percent below October 5, when XRP still stood at $1.52. The coin last closed lower on August 19. Even so, traders betting on rising prices with leverage are paying more for their positions than at any time since October 2025.

What the data show: the cumulative funding rate for XRP on Binance stands at 0.18 percent over 30 days, the highest reading since October 2025, and on OKX the long side has paid at 76 of 100 settlements since October 9. Our assessment follows further down: as long as these long bets are not unwound, the price lacks a floor, even though another seller is about to leave the market.

Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our XRP price prediction with its long-term scenarios. This piece sticks to the futures market, fund flows and a measurement taken on the XRP Ledger overnight into Wednesday.

XRP funding rate: long bets have been paying up for weeks

The funding rate is a balancing payment between buyers and sellers of perpetual futures. Perpetual futures are derivatives contracts with no expiry date that let traders bet on rising or falling prices, usually with borrowed money. To keep their price from drifting away from the spot price for long, one side pays the other at fixed intervals. If the rate is above zero, long positions pay short positions. If it is below zero, the flow reverses.

A positive rate therefore shows that more capital is betting on rising than on falling prices and is willing to carry an ongoing fee for it. In a rising market, that barely stands out. In a market that has been falling for five weeks, it is unusual: buyers are holding on to their positions even as the price moves against them, or they are buying every dip.

For the coming days, this cuts both ways. If the hoped-for recovery arrives, these positions will amplify it. If the price keeps falling, these are exactly the positions that will be forcibly closed, and every forced closure is an additional sale.

CryptoQuant data on Binance: 0.18 percent in 30 days, the highest since October 2025

The Binance figure comes from the analytics firm CryptoQuant and was published on Tuesday by Coinpedia. It measures the sum of all funding payments over the past 30 days. That sum stands at plus 0.18 percent, as high as it was last in October 2025. Back then, XRP's record high of $3.55 was only a few months in the past.

The comparison shows how far sentiment and price have drifted apart. In October 2025, the high rate came from a market that had only just come off its peak. Today, it comes from a market that has lost a quarter of its value in a month. Coinpedia sums this up as an expression of crowded optimism rather than a guarantee of a recovery.

Futures market on OKX: the long side paid at 76 of 100 settlements

To cross-check the figure, cryptoticker.io queried the public interface of the OKX exchange on Wednesday morning, pulling the last 100 funding settlements for the XRP contract against USDT. The series goes back to October 9, with settlement every eight hours. At 76 of these 100 settlements, the rate was above zero. Together, they add up to 0.39 percent.

The most recent settlements fit the picture. On Tuesday at 1 a.m., 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. CET, 0.0062, 0.0096 and 0.0060 percent fell due, and overnight into Wednesday 0.0056 percent. Only a single settlement in the past three days came in just below zero, on Monday evening at minus 0.0001 percent. For the current period, OKX showed 0.01 percent on Wednesday morning.

Translated into money, that looks small, but it adds up. Anyone holding a $10,000 long position pays $1 per settlement at 0.01 percent, or $3 a day. Based on the OKX data, the same position would have cost around $39 in funding since October 9, on top of a price loss of around $2,300, since XRP still stood at $1.38 on October 9.

Open interest and long-short ratio: leverage is shrinking more slowly than the price

Open interest measures the value of all open futures contracts. On OKX, it stood at $132.1 million for XRP on November 4 and at $101.9 million on November 10, a decline of 23 percent. Because the price fell from $1.28 to $1.10 over the same period, a good half of that decline is down to the lower price alone. Measured in coins, open positions have shrunk by only about a tenth.

The ratio of accounts betting on rising prices to those betting on falling prices stood at 3.70 on OKX on Tuesday. On Sunday it had been 4.27, the highest reading of the past two weeks. For every account with a short position, there are still almost four accounts with a long position.

On November 7, our analysis of the long squeeze at $1.15 described how long positions worth more than $16 million were forcibly closed in a single day. The price has since dropped by just under 10 percent, but the number of long bets has barely declined.

XRP spot ETFs: $10.4 million in outflows ahead of the first anniversary

While the futures market is buying, fund investors are pulling money out. According to Coinpedia, the US spot ETFs for XRP saw net outflows of $10.4 million, equivalent to around 9.37 million XRP. Before that, the funds had recorded neither inflows nor outflows on four consecutive trading days from November 3 to 6, the first such streak since August, as Bitcoin.com News reported based on SoSoValue data.

On Friday, November 13, the first US spot ETF on XRP turns one year old. The Canary Capital fund launched on November 13, 2025. In October, the XRP funds had still logged inflows for the seventh month in a row, albeit only $18.8 million. For the outlook over the coming weeks, what matters is whether this stream returns. An ETF inflow means the issuer buys XRP on the market and holds it in custody. An outflow means it is selling down its holdings.

Since Tuesday's XRP price prediction: $1.04 already breached on day one

Our XRP price prediction from Tuesday set out three scenarios through the end of November: $1.04 in the weak case, $1.13 in the base case and $1.27 in the strong case. On Tuesday morning, XRP stood at $1.10. A little over 24 hours later, the price is at $1.058, and the daily low reached $1.034, according to CoinGecko.

The weak scenario was therefore already hit on the first day, not because of any new development at Ripple but in the wake of the broader market. Bitcoin trades at $73,715 on Wednesday morning, 1.2 percent lower than the previous day. After Tuesday's US inflation data, market participants are once again pricing in a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, as our overnight market report shows. The Fed's next meeting ends on December 9.

The $1.08 level, which still held at Monday's daily close, has broken. What is new, by contrast, is what happened on the XRP Ledger.

Binance attacker: the last untouched wallet has been empty since midnight

For this article, cryptoticker.io queried the wallets of the attacker behind the October 29 Binance hack on the XRP Ledger again on Wednesday at 7:44 a.m. CET, in validated ledger 108,255,241. On Tuesday, they still held 61.8 million XRP, 33.46 million of them in a wallet that had not sent a single payment until then.

That wallet moved overnight. At 1:01 a.m. CET, it transferred 33,455,915 XRP in one go to the collection wallet ryB7NE…ktmx, through which the attacker has been passing on the loot in small tranches since November 5. On Wednesday morning, that wallet held 29,466,416 XRP. The other five wallets now carry only residual amounts in the single or low double digits.

Since Tuesday morning's measurement, the collection wallet has sent out 32.34 million XRP in 193 payments. Tuesday from 6:28 a.m. CET accounted for 28.29 million XRP in 171 payments, and Wednesday up to 4:05 a.m. for 4.05 million XRP in 22 payments. The median payment was around 127,000 XRP, the largest 963,000 XRP. Since 4:05 a.m., no further payment had gone out by the time of the query.

Analytics firm Elliptic writes that the XRP moved out were mostly swapped into bitcoin via the THORChain exchange service. Who exactly is buying on the other side cannot be determined from the ledger alone. Of the 233.46 million XRP originally stolen, around 87 percent have now been passed on. If Tuesday's pace holds, the rest would be gone in about a day; at the slower overnight pace, it would take several days.

Our view: without an unwind of long bets, XRP lacks a floor

In the newsroom's view, two forces are pulling against each other. In favour of stabilisation: the largest single seller of the past week will soon have no coins left. Against a global daily trading volume of around $2.3 billion, according to CoinGecko, 29.5 million XRP is a manageable amount.

The futures market argues the other way. A funding rate at its highest level in 13 months, a long-short ratio of 3.7 and open interest that has barely fallen in coin terms show that the market has not yet responded to the drop from $1.52 to $1.06 by cleaning out its long bets. If the price falls below the daily low of $1.034, a large number of forced liquidations sit underneath. Only when the funding rate drops below zero over several settlements will leveraged buyers have pulled back.

What speaks against this view: a positive funding rate can also mean that large investors are deliberately using the decline and hedging it via futures instead of buying directly. If inflows return around the ETF anniversary, the recovery could come faster than the futures market suggests.

XRP levels through the end of November: $1.00, $1.10 and $1.16

Three levels can be derived from the data, each with its rationale.

Weak case: $1.00

Below the daily low of $1.034 lies the zone around $1.00. XRP last closed lower on August 19, and the year's low based on CoinGecko daily closes was $0.993 on August 17. A break of $1.034 would hit the long bets in the futures market, and a wave of forced liquidations could quickly carry the price into that zone.

Base case: $1.03 to $1.10

The range of the past 24 hours runs from $1.034 to $1.10. If the outflow from the attacker's wallet runs dry and ETF flows stay neutral, much points to XRP moving sideways within this range while the funding rate slowly declines.

Strong case: $1.16

XRP closed at $1.16 last Sunday. According to Coinpedia, analyst Lana Valentis names $1.15 as the first target after a confirmed rebound from the lower edge of the downward channel, with further targets at $1.32 and $1.60. That would require fresh ETF inflows and a market that takes on risk again after the inflation print. Above $1.10, short positions would also come under pressure.

Leveraged products in Germany: no holding period, CFDs capped at 2:1

Anyone looking to trade in this environment should keep two things apart. XRP bought directly is tax-free in Germany after a one-year holding period; gains before that are exempt up to €1,000 a year and fully taxable above it. Where plans to abolish this rule stand is summarised in our overview of the holding period reform. The holding period does not apply to futures and CFDs: under the prevailing view, gains from them count as income from forward transactions and are subject to the 25 percent flat-rate withholding tax plus the solidarity surcharge.

Investor protection differs too. Under a rule from the securities regulator ESMA, adopted by BaFin, retail clients in the EU may trade CFDs on crypto assets with leverage of no more than 2:1. The broker has to close the position once the margin falls to half of the initial deposit. For an entry at $1.058, that would be roughly at $0.79, a decline of 25 percent. You can find regulated providers for this in our crypto broker comparison.

Perpetual futures with leverage of 10x or more are mainly offered by exchanges outside these rules. MiCA does not cover such products; in the EU they fall under the MiFID II financial markets directive. At 10x leverage, the liquidation threshold for a long position opened at $1.058 lies roughly at $0.96, only about 9 percent lower, and at 5x at around $0.85. Funding payments come on top for any holding period. If you want to look at providers for decentralised futures trading, you will find them in the perp DEX comparison.

XRP at $1.06: without negative funding, the floor stays open

Three steps you can take today without betting on a direction:

1. Check your leverage. If you hold a long position in XRP, compare your liquidation threshold with the daily low of $1.034 and with the zone around $1.00. If it sits above them, the buffer is too thin. Licensed providers with leverage caps are listed in the broker comparison.
2. Spot rather than futures if you want to buy. If you buy XRP directly, you pay no funding rate and cannot be liquidated, and in Germany the gain becomes tax-free after a year. Exchanges with a MiCA licence are listed in the comparison of regulated crypto exchanges.
3. Document your purchase dates. For the holding period, every single purchase counts. A crypto tax tool records purchase date and price and works out which tranche becomes tax-free when.

(As of November 11, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy. Crypto assets can lose their entire value.)