What Would Bitcoin Look Like Without the Trump Effect?

• Bitcoin’s bull run began before Trump’s election amid ETF demand and the 2024 halving.
• Trump’s crypto policies boosted optimism, while tariffs triggered uncertainty.
• Without Trump, Bitcoin might have rallied more slowly, with a lower peak and fewer market shocks.

Bitcoin’s journey from $67,800 in November 2024 to an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, followed by a decline to $74,000 in November 2026, has been shaped by economic and political forces.

One influential factor has been Donald Trump’s return to the White House. His election victory, crypto-friendly policies, Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal, and changing trade policies all impacted the markets. 

While his administration initially boosted optimism, its tariff decisions also contributed to market volatility.

But how much of Bitcoin’s performance can be attributed to Trump, and what might…

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