Florida Governor Race Results: Why Jolly vs Donalds Is So Close in Trump's Home State

Florida's race for governor is too close to call. At 02:43 CET, Byron Donalds led David Jolly by 88,216 votes, 49.9 to 48.8 percent, with 96.3 percent of the expected vote counted, according to NBC News, based on AP data. Two years ago, Donald Trump carried Florida by 13.1 points, and in 2022 Ron DeSantis won the governor's office by 19.4. A race this tight in Trump's home state is the sharpest signal of the 2026 midterms so far, and it decides whether Florida gets a governor who wants a state Bitcoin reserve.

Florida governor race: the key facts

• Status (02:43 CET): Donalds 4,006,900 votes (49.9 percent), Jolly 3,918,684 (48.8 percent), 88,216 votes apart.
• Votes still out: about 86,098 in 4 counties below 90 percent counted, most of them Republican-leaning (our estimate from AP data).
• Recount line: 0.5 percent triggers a machine recount, about 40,132 votes at the current count.
• Senate seat: NBC News projects Ashley Moody as the winner against Angie Nixon, 50.8 to 48.1 percent with 96.6 percent counted.
• Prediction market: Donalds 99.1 percent, Jolly 0.6 percent on Polymarket (02:43 CET).

Florida election results: where the last votes are

The order of the count explains why the lead has moved. Florida reports mail ballots and early voting first, and Jolly won the mail ballots 56 to 42 percent. Donalds took early in-person voting 52 to 47 and the Election Day ballots that follow 61 to 38. The Panhandle, on Central Time, closed its polls an hour after the rest of the state, at 02:00 CET, so its Republican counties report last.

That is what to watch now. If the counties below 90 percent keep voting the way their counted ballots did, they net Donalds about 16,482 votes. Donalds would then finish roughly 104,698 votes ahead, about 1.3 percent, just outside the recount line. This is our own estimate from county data, and AP's expected vote can still change.

County	Counted	Margin so far	Votes still out (our estimate)
Marion	68 %	R+16.3	about 53,500
St. Lucie	89 %	D+1.8	about 15,700
Santa Rosa	83 %	R+41.9	about 12,800
Holmes	39 %	R+66.1	about 4,100

Florida 2024 vs 2026: how far the state has moved

In 2024, Trump won Florida with 6,110,125 votes to 4,683,038 for Kamala Harris. The gap between the two major candidates now sits about 12.0 points closer to Democrats. 12 of the 12 largest counties that have nearly finished counting moved in that direction.

County	Trump vs Harris 2024	Donalds vs Jolly 2026	Votes counted
Miami-Dade	R+11.4	D+7.1	765,219
Broward	D+17.0	D+32.2	645,507
Palm Beach	D+0.8	D+12.3	559,714
Hillsborough	R+3.1	D+11.4	509,531
Orange	D+13.6	D+29.5	460,205
Pinellas	R+5.2	D+4.4	400,211
Duval	R+1.5	D+10.8	355,356
Lee	R+28.4	R+21.4	299,909

The biggest story is Miami-Dade, which in 2024 voted Republican for president for the first time since 1988 (R+11.4). It now stands at D+7.1. Osceola, with its large Puerto Rican community, went from R+1.5 to D+17.7. Palm Beach County, home to Mar-a-Lago, went from D+0.8 to D+12.3. These comparisons set a governor's race against a presidential race, so part of the shift reflects the candidates and lower midterm turnout. The direction is still consistent across the state.

The preliminary Florida exit poll points to the same voters. Trump's approval stands at 43 percent, disapproval at 56. Cuban American voters still lean Donalds 54 to 45, while Puerto Ricans back Jolly 69 to 29 and other Hispanic voters 60 to 39. For comparison, an American Electorate poll in 2024 had Trump winning Florida's Latinos 56 to 43. These are surveys, not counted votes, and the two polls use different methods.

Florida recount rules: 0.5 percent and 0.25 percent

If the final margin is 0.5 percent or less, Florida law requires a machine recount, ordered by the Secretary of State for a statewide race. At the current count, that line is about 40,132 votes. If the machine recount then shows 0.25 percent or less, about 20,066 votes, a manual recount of over- and undervotes follows across the state.

The trailing candidate can waive the recount in writing. First unofficial returns are due by noon on the fourth day after the election, Saturday 7 November. After a recount, the second set is due by 3 p.m. on the ninth day, Thursday 12 November. So a very close result can keep Florida open for more than a week.

Florida governor race and Bitcoin: what a Donalds win could mean

For crypto, the two candidates are not equally visible. Donalds, a Trump-backed US representative who raised more than $110 million, has made Bitcoin part of his profile. He told Bitcoin.com News in October: "we actually have proposals to create a strategic reserve in Florida." He has also backed the CLARITY Act and rejects a central bank digital currency. He did not lay out how a state would buy Bitcoin, so a reserve remains a proposal, and a legislature would have to pass it.

Jolly, a former Republican congressman who left the party as Trump rose, built his campaign around property insurance and living costs. The result matters beyond Florida either way: the state is the third largest in the US, and a swing of this size changes how both parties plan for 2028. It also feeds directly into the question of who writes the next market structure law, which we follow in our CLARITY Act explainer.

Polymarket's traders are betting on the outstanding counties: 99.1 percent for Donalds at 02:43 CET, with $5.7 million traded, up from about 79 percent in October. That shows what the market expects and is no forecast from us. If you trade around a night like this, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment advice.

Which midterm races are still open

Besides Florida, these are the closest statewide races with at least 20 percent counted at 02:43 CET. Early margins can still move a lot. Every call and the full Senate table are in our midterm election results live ticker, and what the outcome means for oil and gold is in our Iran analysis.

State	Office	Leader	Margin	Counted
South Carolina	Governor	Wilson (Rep)	1.7 pts	53 %
New Hampshire	Governor	Warmington (Dem)	2.7 pts	25 %
South Carolina	Senate	Andrews (Dem)	6.4 pts	53 %
Kentucky	Senate	Barr (Rep)	9.1 pts	56 %
Vermont	Governor	Scott (Rep)	9.5 pts	41 %
Georgia	Governor	Lance Bottoms (Dem)	15.2 pts	63 %
Ohio	Senate	Brown (Dem)	15.8 pts	37 %