Grok AI Sees a 35% Chance XRP Drops to $0.80, but Still Bets on a $1.05 Year-End

Three Things to Know

• Grok, the AI model from xAI, sees a real chance XRP slides to $0.80 before the year ends.
• Daily momentum gauges show XRP deeply oversold, yet sellers still control the trend.
• Everything hinges on whether the floor near $0.89 survives the coming Fed decision.

Grok, the AI model built by xAI, has published a year-end XRP forecast that mixes caution with optimism. The model flags a meaningful risk of a deeper drop, yet its most likely outcome still lands above the $1 mark.

That split view matters because XRP just endured a harsh week, and US spot XRP funds keep bleeding cash. Traders now face one question. Can the token hold its nearest floor before the Fed meets in December?

Grok Assigns 35% Odds to a Fall Toward $0.80

The model puts a 35% chance on XRP falling to that level by Dec 31. The forecast draws partly on work by crypto analyst Ali Martinez. That target sits about 17% below the $0.96 price XRP held on Nov 14.

The model still leans bullish overall. It gives 70% odds that XRP closes 2026 above $1. Its most likely year-end price is $1.05, with a 50% weight. A bull case of $1.40 carries 20% odds. A bear case of $0.82 carries 30%.

Grok ties the bear case to a Fed shock, such as a half-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting. That would need to push Bitcoin below $60,000, down from about $65,300 when the forecast ran. The model says XRP avoids that path if Bitcoin holds above $75,000 and fund inflows return. If the bear target hits, Grok expects roughly eight weeks for a recovery above the $1 mark.

The mood is already grim. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 13, and liquidations reached $1.23 billion in a single day. US spot XRP funds lost $19.1 million from Nov 9 to 13. Their net assets fell to $1.15 billion, about 25% below mid-October levels.

A Relief Bounce Inside a Steep Monthly Slide

XRP (XRP) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

XRP traded near $0.97 on Friday, up about 6% over the past 24 hours. That bounce pulled the token back from the lows of a brutal week.

Over the past month, XRP has lost about 27% of its value. The latest green candle is a small step up after a long staircase down.

The moving averages tell the same story. A moving average smooths out daily swings to show the underlying direction of price. XRP sits well below its 50-day average, near $1.24, and that line now works as a ceiling. Buyers would need a gain of more than a quarter just to test it.

XRP also trades under its higher 200-day average. With price under both lines, the trend on every common timeframe points down. Traders often treat that setup as a market where rallies get sold.

This rebound arrived right after a wave of forced selling cleared out leveraged long positions. Once those positions are gone, short sellers often lock in profits by buying back tokens. That buying can lift price quickly without any new conviction behind it.

Volume from fresh buyers and a return of fund inflows would be the first signs that something larger is changing.

Oversold Readings Have Not Yet Turned Sellers

RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits near 26. Readings under 30 count as oversold. That means sellers have pushed price down faster than usual, and such stretches often come before a bounce.

Oversold does not mean the bottom is in. In a strong downtrend, RSI can stay pinned in that zone for weeks while price keeps sliding. The recent rebound has not yet lifted the reading out of it.

Other gauges point the same way. MACD, which tracks shifts in momentum, remains below its signal line, so momentum is still pointing down. A separate trend-strength measure shows a real trend in place, and sellers are the ones leading it.

A MACD cross back above its signal line would be the first sign of real momentum behind the bounce.

Why $0.89 Matters More Than Any Other Level

The nearest daily support sits near $0.89. That level lines up closely with the $0.90 mark Grok flags as the low of a weekly descending channel. The same zone also meets a trendline that dates back to the 2020-21 cycle.

Below that floor, the chart shows no mapped support at all. A clean break would leave price exposed to Grok's lower markers. The first is $0.87, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, a level traders use to spot where pullbacks often stall. The next is $0.84, the 100-month simple moving average. Past that, Grok's bear target comes into play.

On the upside, first resistance sits near $1.20, close to the recent 20-day average. Reclaiming it would put $1.33, the 200-day average, in view as the next test.

Between those two zones lies the round number that matters most for Grok's base case. A daily close back above it would show buyers can hold ground. Failure there would keep the pressure on support.

Two Paths Into the Fed Meeting

The Dec 9 Fed decision will likely decide which way XRP breaks.

• Bullish: A daily close above first resistance would open a run toward the 200-day average. That path fits Grok's base case and would likely need Bitcoin to steady first. A close back below support would cancel it.
• Bearish: A break of support would expose the 100-month average and then Grok's bear target. A hawkish Fed surprise is the most likely trigger. A reclaim of first resistance would cancel this path.

Grok's Base Case Lives or Dies at Support

XRP looks stretched to the downside, so a further bounce has room to run. The broader trend still belongs to sellers until price reclaims first resistance.

A hawkish Fed surprise that drags Bitcoin lower could still swamp any oversold setup.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.