Shiba Inu gives back its weekly lead over bitcoin, down 5.4 percent against BTC

The lead lasted exactly one day. On Friday, Shiba Inu measured in bitcoin stood at its highest since mid-October; on Saturday the memecoin gave back almost all of that gain. On Saturday evening SHIB cost around $0.00000375, or €0.0000034, according to Coingecko, almost 12 percent less than 24 hours earlier. Bitcoin lost a good 6 percent over the same period. Where the price could head over a horizon of months is set out in the scenarios of our Shiba Inu price prediction.

What is documented: on Kraken, 138.6 billion SHIB changed hands on Saturday by UTC day up to late evening, more than on any day since October 30, and the daily low was $0.000003698. Our assessment follows further down: a sell-off on high volume can mark an end, but it can just as well be the start of another leg, and two levels will decide which reading is right.

Saturday evening: SHIB falls below $0.000004 on 138.6 billion coins traded

Until midday, Saturday still looked like a quiet weekend day for Shiba Inu. On Kraken, SHIB opened the UTC day at $0.000004252 and moved in a narrow band between $0.00000411 and $0.00000425 until 1 pm German time. In the afternoon the $0.000004 mark broke: in the hour from 3 pm German time, 13.3 billion SHIB were traded, the daily low slipped to $0.00000403, and an hour later the price fell below the mark for the first time.

The real slide came in the evening. Between 9 pm and 11 pm German time, a combined 44.6 billion SHIB changed hands on Kraken, almost a third of the entire day's volume, and the price dropped from around $0.00000392 to $0.0000037. At the same time, bitcoin slid to $63,243 on Kraken, its daily low after an open of $68,237. Anyone who read Friday's article on the SHIB/BTC ratio will see the counterpart here: on Friday SHIB cushioned bitcoin's decline, on Saturday it amplified it.

Volume of 138.6 billion SHIB is 1.8 times the average of the previous 30 days, which stood at 76.6 billion. A day with that much trading at the weekend is unusual, because most professional traders are not at their screens then. The push therefore came more from stop-loss orders and forced closures than from planned selling. The Fear and Greed Index fits the mood: it stood at 13 on Saturday, after 20 on Friday and 28 on Thursday. What earlier phases with such low readings meant for bitcoin is shown in our analysis of past panic phases.

The satoshi count: from 6,228 to 5,894 in a single day

A satoshi is one hundred-millionth of a bitcoin. Expressing the Shiba Inu price in satoshis strips out the general market move and shows only whether SHIB is doing better or worse than the market leader. On Friday, one million SHIB cost 6,228 satoshis at the daily close on Kraken, the most since October 15. By Saturday evening it was just 5,894 satoshis by our calculation from Kraken prices, a fall of 5.4 percent in a single day.

That wipes out almost the entire rise since November 8. On that Sunday the ratio stood at 5,831 satoshis, the lowest daily close of the month, and it then climbed on four of the next five days. Today only around 60 satoshis separate SHIB from that monthly low. The comparison over time shows the pattern behind it: since mid-October SHIB has only ever held its own against bitcoin briefly, and every recovery ended back below the 6,000-satoshi mark after two to three days.

Why does a memecoin usually fall harder when bitcoin drops? Bitcoin is the collateral that many exchanges accept as security for leveraged positions, and it has the deepest order books. With Shiba Inu, there is far less buying interest behind each price level. When bitcoin falls a few percent, positions in smaller coins are forcibly closed on futures markets, and in thinner order books every sale pushes the price further. On Friday this mechanism had barely hit SHIB; on Saturday it hit all the harder.

Futures market: shorts pay, positions shrink

The futures market deserves a second look. On OKX, the funding rate for the perpetual SHIB contract stood at minus 0.0106 percent per eight-hour period on Saturday evening. A negative value means that those betting on falling prices pay those betting on rising ones. Most of the leveraged money is therefore now betting against SHIB. The rate had already turned negative on Thursday, as our analysis of November 12 showed.

At the same time, open positions are shrinking. According to OKX daily data, the value of all open SHIB contracts was around $5.98 million on November 14, after $6.33 million the day before and $6.73 million at the start of November. Falling prices with declining open interest mean that it is mainly existing long positions being closed, voluntarily or through liquidation. Hardly any fresh money is coming in for new shorts. The market is therefore unwinding rather than building up, and that is an important distinction for the coming days.

For leveraged investors this creates a double risk. Long positions quickly run into liquidation on further drops, because SHIB can swing several percent in an hour. Short positions may cost nothing in funding at a negative rate, but they pay the fee themselves, and a recovery of a few percent can knock them out of the market in a series. If you hold a leveraged SHIB position, check its liquidation price today against the daily low of $0.000003698 and reduce the leverage rather than hoping for a bounce.

Levels for the coming days: $0.000004 above, $0.0000037 below

To the upside, the first level is the round threshold of $0.000004. In Kraken daily data since late November 2024, every closing price was above it; on Saturday afternoon the threshold gave way. Broken support often turns into resistance, because many buyers from recent weeks want to get out there without a loss. The second level is $0.00000425, Friday's closing price and Saturday's open. Only above that would the weekend slide be undone.

Much higher, at around $0.00000505, sit the averages of the closing prices of the last 50 and 200 days on Kraken. The two lines run almost on top of each other and are therefore about 34 percent above the current price. For a trend reversal in technical terms, SHIB would have to reclaim this zone, and there is currently no sign of that.

To the downside, the daily low of $0.000003698 is the only fresh level. Not a single closing price in Kraken daily data since late November 2024 lies below this value. How low SHIB last stood in spring 2021 was traced in our price report from Saturday. Then there is the satoshi level: if the ratio falls below 5,831 satoshis per million SHIB, a new monthly low against bitcoin is in place, and the memecoin keeps losing even if bitcoin stabilises.

Two scenarios to the end of November

In the friendly case, SHIB closes a day back above $0.000004 and the ratio to bitcoin climbs back above 6,000 satoshis. The negative funding rate would then become fuel, because shorts would have to close their positions and buy SHIB to do so. A test of $0.00000425 would be the obvious next step in that case, around 13 percent above Saturday evening.

In the weaker case, SHIB stays below $0.000004 and closes below the daily low of $0.000003698. On the data since 2024 there would then be no reference point to the downside at all, and the price would mainly follow bitcoin. SHIB has already lost around 45 percent since the start of the year, from $0.00000691 on January 1 to $0.00000375, and almost 59 percent over twelve months according to Coingecko.

Our assessment: the weaker case is more likely in the short term. Three documented points support it: the break of $0.000004 on the highest volume in two weeks, the loss of the satoshi lead in a single day, and a fear index of 13 at which bitcoin itself has not yet shown a floor. Against it, open interest is falling and the funding rate is negative; both were often seen near a low in earlier sell-offs. This is neither a buy nor a sell recommendation. As with any crypto asset, a total loss is possible.

Buying SHIB: MiCA-licensed providers and spreading your entry

Gains, losses and the timing of a sale are treated differently from country to country; a crypto tax tool calculates the holding period per purchase more reliably than a spreadsheet of your own.

When buying, the EU's MiCA regulation has applied since the end of 2024. Providers offering crypto services in the EU need a licence, which can be looked up in the register of the European securities regulator ESMA. If you want to buy after the slide, you are better off spreading purchases over several dates rather than betting everything on a single price; a savings plan takes the decision about the right day off your hands. Fees vary considerably from provider to provider; our comparison of crypto exchanges sets costs and licences side by side.

SHIB below $0.000004: only a close above it changes the picture

The situation after Saturday is clearly defined. Shiba Inu lost the $0.000004 threshold on high volume and gave back its lead over bitcoin from the previous days in a single day. As long as SHIB closes below that threshold and the ratio stays below 6,000 satoshis, bitcoin sets the pace, and the memecoin is likely to fall harder. A daily close above $0.000004 would be the first sign that the weekend's sellers are exhausted. Until then, the liquidation price on leveraged positions and a licensed provider matter more than any hope of a quick bounce.