Solana price prediction: SOL tests the 200-day line at $88.88 ahead of Breakpoint London

Eleven days before the most important Solana conference of the year, SOL is sitting at the level where its trend will be decided. On Wednesday, November 4, the price fell to $89.77 on the Kraken exchange, its lowest in more than a month and less than a dollar above the 200-day moving average at $88.88. By Wednesday afternoon SOL was back at $94.24, or €83.62. From November 15 to 17, the Solana community meets in London for Breakpoint 2026.

What the record shows: at each of the last three Breakpoint conferences, SOL ended the event higher than it had been eleven days earlier, but the lead shrank from year to year. Our assessment follows further down. The conference is a date for headlines; the direction will be set by the zone around $89.

Where the price could head over the coming months is covered in our Solana price prediction and its scenarios. This piece is about the days until London: what has changed since yesterday, how the price moved around the 2023, 2024 and 2025 conferences, which chart levels count now, and what investors in Germany should settle before buying and staking SOL.

Solana price on November 4: intraday low at $89.77, rebound above $94

Wednesday started weakly for Solana, as it did for the whole crypto market in the night after the US midterm elections of November 3. On Kraken, SOL opened the trading day (UTC) at $92.72 and set its low at $89.77 during the session. Buyers then stepped in. By the afternoon the price had recovered by around 5 percent to $94.24, above the opening price.

A look back helps for the monthly comparison. On October 28 SOL still closed at $102.33; the next day, with the Binance hack, the price fell to $95.40. SOL has not reclaimed the $100 mark since. The 30-day high stands at $122.04, which puts today's price a good 23 percent below it.

Since November 3: SOL fell to within reach of the 200-day line

Yesterday evening SOL stood at $92.99 in our analysis of the validator move. At that point the weekly low was $90.71, and the 200-day line at $88.86 was still almost two dollars away. Today that gap has narrowed to 89 cents: the new low of $89.77 is below Monday's, and the line itself has edged up to $88.88.

The line held all the same. The last daily close below it on Kraken was more than ten weeks ago, on August 18 at $77.00, and the quick afternoon recovery shows there is demand in this zone. The date is also drawing closer: eleven days remain until Breakpoint, and most of the London programme is now known.

Breakpoint 2026 in London: three conference days at Olympia from November 15

Breakpoint is the annual conference of the Solana Foundation, the non-profit that funds development of the network. Developers, funds, exchanges and projects from the Solana ecosystem present new work there, often with announcements of partnerships, upgrades or new products. In 2026 it takes place in the UK for the first time, from November 15 to 17 at Olympia in London.

According to the organisers, the first wave of speakers includes MoneyGram chief executive Anthony Soohoo, investor Balaji Srinivasan and Raoul Pal. Attendance estimates range from 7,000 to more than 8,000. A so-called Hacker House, a meeting place for developer teams, has been open in London since November 1 and runs until November 12. On November 13 the foundation presents the Solana Community Awards; voting closes on November 9.

For the price, dates like these matter mainly through expectations. Traders often buy beforehand in the hope of big announcements and sell once they have been made. Whether that has held for Solana recently can be tested against price data from the past three conferences.

Breakpoint 2023 to 2025 compared: how the Solana price moved around the conference

For the last three editions we analysed SOL's daily closing prices against the US dollar stablecoin USDT on the Binance exchange: the price eleven days before the start, the opening price on the first conference day, the closing price on the last day and the closing price 30 days later. cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on November 4, 2026.

Amsterdam, October 30 to November 3, 2023: Eleven days before the start, SOL cost $24.93; at the opening it was $32.83, a gain of 31.7 percent. A further 20.2 percent was added during the conference, to $39.45, and 30 days later SOL stood at $62.98. That autumn, however, coincided with the start of a broad recovery across the whole market, and the conference was only part of it.

Singapore, September 20 and 21, 2024: From $135.08 eleven days earlier, SOL rose 5.8 percent to $142.88 by the opening. Over the two conference days the price gained 4.6 percent to $149.41, and 30 days later it was $166.17.

Abu Dhabi, December 11 to 13, 2025: The run-up brought only 2.1 percent, from $133.48 to $136.26. During the conference the price slipped 2.3 percent to $133.14, and 30 days later SOL traded at $139.22.

The pattern is clear, though not the one market lore would suggest. In none of the three cases did the price slump after the conference. The effect did, however, shrink every year: a 31.7 percent run-up became 5.8 and then 2.1 percent. Three conferences are also a small sample, and no rule for 2026 can be drawn from them.

Buy the rumour, sell the news: why a conference rarely turns the trend

The market maxim "buy the rumour, sell the news" describes a familiar pattern: traders buy ahead of an expected event and take profits once it has happened. At conferences the mechanism is weaker than around hard dates such as an upgrade or an ETF approval, because nobody knows in advance whether there will be a price-relevant announcement at all.

On top of that, the market today is driven more heavily by large capital flows than it was in 2023. Since the launch of the US spot ETFs on Solana, inflows and outflows from the funds can move the price more than news from the network itself. A conference can add to that flow, but it cannot replace it. Anyone betting on a Breakpoint effect is therefore really betting that sentiment across the wider market also improves by mid-November.

Solana ETFs: $71.47 million of outflows last week as a headwind

That very flow has recently run against SOL. According to data from provider SoSoValue, cited by FXStreet on November 2, investors pulled a net $71.47 million out of the US spot Solana ETFs in the week to the end of October, the largest weekly outflow since the funds launched. Across October as a whole, SOL fell on Kraken from $118.06 to $95.31, a loss of 19.3 percent.

Then there is the supply from the October 29 Binance hack, in which SOL was also stolen, according to the exchange. Binance has since gradually reopened withdrawals over the Solana network. As long as it is unclear when and where the stolen coins will be sold, this remains a burden that no chart can predict.

Solana chart: 200-day line at $88.88, 100-day line at $98.52

The levels are derived from daily closing prices on Kraken up to November 3. A moving average is the mean of closing prices over a fixed number of days; the 200-day line is regarded as the boundary between a long-term uptrend and downtrend.

• $88.88, 200-day line: On Wednesday the price came within 89 cents of it, and the line held. A daily close below it would be the first since August 18 and would clearly darken the chart picture.
• $89.77, November 4 low: Together with the 200-day line it forms the zone that has to hold until the conference.
• $98.52, 100-day line: The first hurdle on the upside, just below the round $100 mark.
• $100.76, 20-day line: This line shows the short-term trend. Only a close above it would end the decline that began on October 29.
• $108.60, 50-day line: Yesterday it was still at $108.79 and it keeps falling, a sign of the medium-term downtrend.

There is a good 13 percent between $88.88 and $100.76. The price is likely to move within this band until the conference, unless bigger news intervenes.

Buying and staking SOL in Germany: MiCA licence and holding period before the event

If you want to buy SOL ahead of Breakpoint, look at the provider first. Since the German transition period ended on December 30, 2025, crypto service providers serving customers in the country need a licence under the EU's MiCA regulation. Whether a provider holds one is shown in the public register of the European Securities and Markets Authority, ESMA. An overview of exchanges with this licence is available in our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges.

For tax purposes, SOL is subject to the same one-year holding period as other cryptocurrencies: if you sell after more than twelve months, the gain is tax-free in Germany. For shorter holding periods, gains of up to €1,000 a year stay tax-free; above that threshold the entire gain is taxed at your personal income tax rate. Where plans to abolish the holding period stand is summarised on our page on the status of the holding period reform.

If you stake your SOL, that is, delegate it to a validator to help secure the network, you receive rewards. These are counted as other income when received; up to €256 a year of such income stays tax-free. According to the tax authorities, staking does not extend the holding period of the staked coins. As the validator incident in October showed, it pays to check who operates the validator when choosing a provider.

Our assessment: the conference delivers headlines, the 200-day line the direction

In the view of the editorial team, Breakpoint in London is not a reliable price driver. The numbers support that: the pre-conference run-up has shrunk from 31.7 percent in 2023 to 2.1 percent in 2025, and ETF outflows of $71.47 million in a single week weigh more heavily than any announcement on a stage. Pointing towards stabilisation is the fact that the 200-day line held on Wednesday and buyers lifted the price by 5 percent within hours.

The conclusion: as long as SOL stays above $88.88 on a daily closing basis, the long-term uptrend is intact and the conference can provide a tailwind. If the price falls below it before November 15, London loses weight as a catalyst, because the chart level would then set the mood. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Anyone investing in SOL should only commit money they can afford to lose entirely.

Solana before London: below $88.88 the chart picture tips over

1. Check your provider: Before buying, make sure your exchange holds a MiCA licence. Our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges lists providers with an EU licence.
2. Choose a staking provider: If you hold SOL through the conference and beyond, you can collect staking rewards. Yields and terms are set out in our comparison of staking platforms.
3. Record your purchase dates: For the one-year holding period, the date of each individual purchase counts. A crypto tax tool records purchase dates and staking income automatically.

(As of November 4, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)