XRP Price Prediction: Long Squeeze Drags XRP to $1.15, the Level That Decides

XRP left the zone around $1.19 overnight into Saturday, a level where the price had turned higher three times since October 30. On OKX, XRP dropped as low as $1.1518 early on Saturday, its weakest level since August 20, and traded at $1.169 at around 7:40 a.m. CET. What the data show: on Friday, long positions worth more than $16 million were forcibly closed, according to CoinGlass, and yet more OKX accounts than at any point this autumn are betting on rising prices. Our assessment follows further down: the sell-off did not remove leverage from the market, it merely shifted it.

Where the price could head over the coming months is covered in our XRP price prediction. This piece looks at the next few days: at the $1.15 level that held overnight, at the derivatives market and at a price band below it in which XRP has barely traded since August.

XRP long squeeze: $16 million in forced liquidations in a single day

A long squeeze is a chain of forced sales. When the price falls, the collateral behind leveraged long positions is no longer enough, so the exchange closes the position and sells in the process. That sale pushes the price lower and reaches the next group of positions. A pullback turns into a cascade.

Friday's numbers show exactly this pattern. According to CoinGlass data compiled by U.Today on Saturday, XRP positions worth $16.75 million were liquidated in one day. Of that, $16.01 million came from long positions, or 95.5 percent, and only around $746,000 from shorts. Over five days, losses for leveraged traders add up to more than $30 million. On Binance alone, $8.06 million of XRP positions were closed, and more than 3,600 traders lost their entire margin.

The same analysis puts Friday at 2.74 times the weekly average. The wave was not triggered by any news from Ripple or the XRP Ledger. The pressure came from the broader market after the Nasdaq sell-off and Friday's US jobs report, and in XRP it hit an unusually large number of bullish bets.

XRP daily low at $1.1518: the lowest level since August 20

OKX daily candles show how far the slide reaches. Since August 20, XRP had not traded below $1.16 on any day. On Saturday, between 4 and 6 a.m. CET, the price fell twice, to $1.1518 and $1.1519, and turned higher each time. In the 24 hours to Saturday morning the range ran from $1.1518 to $1.2031, a loss of about 2.2 percent.

Measured against the moving averages, the picture has darkened further. CoinGecko daily closes put the 200-day line at around $1.27 on Saturday, the 100-day line at $1.31 and the 50-day line at $1.38. The price is therefore about 8 percent below the slowest of these lines. The $1.19 zone, which acted as support until Friday, has been the first resistance since overnight.

Since the last test: what happened at the $1.19 zone

On Friday morning our analysis described the third test of the $1.19 zone in eight days. XRP was trading at $1.188 at the time, and the zone had held on October 30, November 5 and November 6. A daily close above the 200-day line at $1.272 was seen as the first sign of a recovery.

Three things have changed since then. First, the zone did not hold: XRP closed Friday (UTC) at $1.1791, below $1.19 for the first time since August 20. Second, open interest on OKX has kept falling, so part of the leveraged bets has been forced out of the market. Third, the ratio of long to short accounts has risen instead of falling. The gap to the 200-day line has widened from just under 7 percent to around 8 percent. The $1.27 level remains the signal for a genuine recovery, but it is further away than on Friday.

OKX long-short ratio climbs to 4.3 despite falling prices

The long-short ratio counts how many accounts with an open long position there are for every account with an open short. On OKX, the XRP reading was still 2.71 on November 3. It has risen every day since: 3.77 on November 4, 4.07 on November 5 and 4.2 on November 6. On Saturday morning the exchange reported 4.3 for the hour starting at 7 a.m.

In other words, the further XRP fell, the more accounts bought the dip with leverage. At first glance that looks like confidence. For the price it is more of a burden, because each new leveraged long has its own liquidation price below the current market. Based on the CoinGlass heatmap, U.Today named $1.1588 as the next zone with clustered long liquidations. The price already fell below that zone on Saturday morning without a second large wave following. Funding for the XRP perpetual on OKX stood at roughly 0.008 percent per eight hours on Saturday morning, just in positive territory. Longs are therefore still paying a small premium to the other side.

The context matters: the ratio counts accounts, not capital. Many small long accounts can face a handful of large short positions. A high reading mainly says that the bulk of traders is betting on a rebound, and it is exactly this crowd that would supply the next forced sales if the slide continues.

Open interest down 11 percent: leverage is only partly leaving the market

Open interest is the value of all open futures contracts on a coin. If it rises while prices fall, new bets are being added; if it falls, positions are being closed, voluntarily or through liquidation. On OKX, open interest across all XRP contracts fell, according to the exchange's daily data, from $132.1 million on November 4 to $122.4 million on November 5 and $117.1 million on November 6. That is a drop of just over 11 percent in two days.

Part of that reflects the lower price, since the same number of contracts is worth less at $1.17 than at $1.30. But the price fell by around 10 percent over the same period, so open interest shrank only slightly more than the price. Futures volume picked up at the same time, reaching $384.6 million on November 6 after $305.9 million the day before. Together with the rising long-short ratio, the picture is clear: old long positions were closed and new ones took their place.

Thin trading band between $1.09 and $1.15

To gauge how far a slide below $1.15 could run, it helps to look back at August. We analysed XRP's daily closes on OKX since July 31, 100 days in total. The result: on only one day did XRP close between $1.09 and $1.15, on August 19 at $1.1061. The following day the price jumped from a low of $1.0879 to a daily close of $1.2685.

In the summer, then, XRP passed through this band within two days. Where a price has barely traded, there are few past buy and sell orders for it to hold on to. Chart analysts call this a gap in the volume profile. If the $1.15 level fails, there is no visible step down to the August 20 low at around $1.09. Below that begins the broad trading zone of the first half of August, when XRP swung between $0.99 and $1.07; the lowest daily low of that period was $0.9872 on August 14.

The same applies in the other direction: in August the gap was closed to the upside in one move. A thin band amplifies moves both ways, and it says nothing about which one comes next.

XRP vs Bitcoin: weakness without a trigger of its own

What stands out is that XRP fell on its own overnight. Bitcoin traded at around $76,040 on OKX on Saturday morning, 0.4 percent above its level 24 hours earlier. XRP lost 2.2 percent over the same period. There was no news from Ripple or the XRP Ledger to explain it.

The most obvious explanation lies in the derivatives market itself. XRP carried a larger overhang of leveraged long bets than other large coins, and that overhang was unwound while Bitcoin moved sideways. A coin with a one-sided futures market falls harder than the broader market when demand is weak, even without bad news of its own.

XRP spot ETFs: no inflows since October 29

On the demand side, a buffer that was there in the summer is missing. According to SoSoValue data cited by CoinGape, US spot XRP ETFs have received no new money since October 29. The funds' net assets most recently stood at around $1.41 billion. In the third quarter, according to SoSoValue, a good $300 million still flowed into the products.

ETF inflows move the price because the issuer has to buy and hold real XRP on the market for every new fund share. When they dry up, that steady demand disappears and the price depends more heavily on the derivatives market. Friday showed exactly that situation.

XRP scenarios: levels to the upside and downside until mid-November

The numbers point to three levels that will decide the coming days.

Bearish scenario: a break of $1.15

If XRP closes a day below $1.15, the thin band down to around $1.09, the August 20 low, opens up. With a long-short ratio above 4, further forced sales there would be likely, because many of the long positions opened since Monday probably have their liquidation price in this area. The zone around $0.99 from the first half of August would be the next broad support.

Neutral scenario: swinging between $1.15 and $1.20

If Saturday morning's low holds, XRP could swing between $1.15 and the former support at $1.19 to $1.20 until the derivatives market has been cleaned up. One sign of that would be a long-short ratio falling back towards 3 without the price making new lows.

Bullish scenario: reclaiming $1.20

A daily close above $1.20 would mark the overnight break as a false signal. U.Today also points to the 100-day exponential moving average at $1.271 as resistance, almost coinciding with the simple 200-day line. Only above that would the situation since late October have truly turned.

Our view: the squeeze has not flushed out leverage

Our assessment: Friday's sell-off was not the kind of capitulation after which the market can breathe again. The evidence lies in the OKX data. Open interest fell only slightly more than the price, and the long-short ratio rose from 2.71 to 4.3. After a cleansing squeeze this ratio normally falls, because the bullish bets have been forced out. Here the opposite happened.

In our view, that means the $1.15 level carries more weight than its height suggests. Below it lies a band with no trading history, above it a market full of bullish bets. Arguing against this is the fact that funding is barely elevated and the price turned higher twice at $1.1518. This is neither a buy nor a sell recommendation. XRP can move by double digits in either direction within days, and, as Friday showed, the total loss of leveraged positions is real.

Liquidation price and holding period: the numbers for investors in Germany

Anyone trading XRP with leverage should know their liquidation price before the next swing. A long position with ten times leverage opened at $1.19 will be closed at around $1.08 to $1.09, depending on the exchange and maintenance margin, right at the August 20 low. With five times leverage the threshold is around $0.96. A stop-loss above these levels caps the loss before the exchange liquidates. Where to find perpetuals with low fees is shown in our comparison of perp DEXs.

If you buy XRP without leverage, you need a venue with limit orders so that a purchase during a fast move is not filled at a worse price. An exchange licensed under the EU's MiCA regulation can be found in our crypto exchange comparison.

For tax purposes, Germany applies a one-year holding period: gains on XRP held for more than twelve months are tax-free. If you sell at a loss within that period, you can offset the loss against gains from other private disposals in the same year; gains remain tax-free up to an exemption limit of 1,000 euros a year. Where the planned change currently stands is summarised in our overview of the holding period reform.

XRP at $1.15: only above $1.20 has the squeeze been absorbed

Three points stand out for the days ahead.

1. Watch the level: a daily close below $1.15 opens the band down to $1.09, a close above $1.20 defuses the break. You can place limit buy orders at a regulated crypto exchange.
2. Check your leverage: if the liquidation price of an open position is above $1.09, another slide like Friday's is enough. Terms for leveraged trading are listed in our broker comparison.
3. Record your purchase date: each purchase counts separately for the holding period. A crypto tax tool tracks the deadlines for you.

(As of November 7, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)