Bitcoin Price Prediction: Fed on Wednesday, $11.1 Billion Expiry on Friday, Which Date Moves the Price?

Bitcoin traded at $80,693 on Saturday afternoon, 1.25 percent lower than 24 hours earlier, according to market data from CoinGecko. What is on the record: the US Federal Reserve sets its policy rate on Wednesday, October 28, and at around 9am German time on Friday morning, bitcoin contracts worth $11.1 billion expire on the Deribit options exchange. Our own assessment follows further below: the closer of the two dates is not the more important one.

The question this week is not whether the Fed raises rates, but when. The minutes of the September meeting state that one further increase before the end of the year would likely be appropriate. After Wednesday, exactly one meeting is left for it. For where the price can go over a horizon of months, see our bitcoin price prediction.

What Washington decides on Wednesday

The Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meets on October 27 and 28. This body sets the target range for the US federal funds rate. The decision is published on Wednesday at 2pm local time in Washington, which after the European clock change is 7pm German time; the press conference starts half an hour later. The Fed's meeting calendar lists only one further date for 2026, December 8 and 9.

This meeting does not come with new rate projections from policymakers. That sounds technical, but it matters for the price: without fresh projections, the market reaction hangs on the decision itself and on the wording of the statement.

The sentence in the Fed minutes that sets expectations

On September 16 the Fed raised the target range by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, unanimously. The minutes of that meeting contain the sentence that set expectations for the rest of the year: „another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end“.

The same minutes frame the risks. Most participants saw inflation risks tilted to the upside, and many pointed to the danger that persistently higher energy prices feed through into broader price increases. None of that commits anyone to the October meeting: the minutes state explicitly that every meeting starts with an open outcome and that the decision depends on the data available at the time.

The market has moved the rate rise to December

There is a gap between the minutes and market expectations. On the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, as compiled by the data service DeFi Rate, a rate rise on Wednesday is priced at around 7 percent and an unchanged rate at about 93 percent. For the December meeting the increase stands at around 73 percent. Rate futures based on CME data point the same way, with the probability of no change in October recently at a good 90 percent.

These numbers are a snapshot of sentiment, not a commitment; they shift with every data release. In late September, expectations for an October increase were much higher, until a weak labour market report knocked them down. Anyone setting levels therefore works through both cases instead of relying on the more likely one.

How a rate move works through to the bitcoin price

The route from the policy rate to the bitcoin price runs through three stations. First, the yield on safe assets: when rates rise, holding bitcoin without interest becomes relatively more expensive, because overnight deposits or a short-dated government bond pay more. Second, the dollar, because a higher rate supports the currency, and a stronger dollar weighs on a price measured in dollars. Third, financing costs in the derivatives market: dearer credit makes leveraged positions more expensive and shrinks the demand that rests on borrowed money.

This works over weeks, not minutes. The first move after a rate decision therefore says little about the direction of the following weeks. For Wednesday, the decision matters less than the deviation from what was expected: if the market prices 7 percent for an increase and it arrives, it meets positions that have not accounted for it.

Two days later, $11.1 billion expires

The monthly expiry on the Deribit options exchange falls on Friday, October 30. According to an analysis dated October 22, it covers contracts worth $11.1 billion, or 34.6 percent of the open bitcoin options there; the ratio of puts to calls stood at 0.56, so calls dominate. An earlier analysis from October 8 gives a range of $10.7 billion to $11.3 billion and a ratio between 0.40 and 0.51. The figures diverge because they were collected at different moments; the order of magnitude is the same in both cases.

What stands out is where the calls sit. The largest single position in early October was the $95,000 strike with around 25,031 bitcoin, worth roughly $2.07 billion at the time. At a price of $80,693 these contracts expire worthless unless bitcoin adds a good 17 percent. Positioning like that unwinds quietly on expiry day rather than moving the price.

What max pain is and what it is not

For October 30 the analyses put the max pain point at $78,000, with an older survey giving a range of $78,000 to $79,000. Max pain describes the price at which the sum of payouts to option buyers is smallest, in other words the point of greatest pain for those holding options.

What matters is what the figure does not do. It describes positioning into expiry day and says nothing about where the price is heading. Nor is it evidence that buyers are waiting at $78,000. The analysis of October 23 makes that point explicitly and also treats the visible buy orders near $80,000 on one large exchange as weak evidence, because orders in the book can be pulled at any time. On that reading there is no documented floor between $78,000 and $80,000. Other venues arrive at different numbers anyway, with $81,000 to $82,000 cited for Binance and OKX.

The levels that fit Saturday's bitcoin price

Four levels can be justified from the daily data. On the upside, first the 24-hour high at $81,939, above that the 50-day line, which the price slipped below on Saturday morning for the first time in 66 days; our price report of October 24 recorded that at $80,806. On the downside, the intraday low at $80,410, then the round $80,000 mark with its visible buy orders, and finally the max pain point at $78,000.

These levels apply to this week and no further. The distance from the price to the intraday low is 0.35 percent, the distance to the $78,000 mark 3.3 percent. Both are within what bitcoin has covered on single days this week.

How to check your leverage before October 28

A date with a known time and an unknown outcome is the moment when leveraged positions break. Our price report of October 23 cited long liquidations of more than $431 million within a day. Three checks take only a few minutes.

First, look up the liquidation price of every open position and hold it against the levels above. If it sits between $78,000 and $80,400, it is exposed to a move that has already happened twice this week. Then look at the funding rate, the running payment between the long and short side on perpetual futures. A strongly positive rate means long positions are paying to hold, and it often picks up ahead of scheduled events. Finally, size your margin so that a 5 percent move does not consume it. Which venue charges which fees and applies which liquidation rules is set out in our comparison of the best perp DEXs.

Holding period: the tax calendar counts differently here

For investors in Germany, more hangs on the date than the price question. Under current law the gain from selling bitcoin remains tax free if more than one year lies between purchase and sale. Within the year the personal income tax rate applies, and gains from private disposals are covered by an exemption threshold of 1,000 euros per calendar year. Selling before Wednesday to sidestep the event may therefore turn a tax-free sale into a taxable one.

The calculation is worth doing: where a gain clearly exceeds the threshold, the tax can be larger than the price move the sale is meant to protect against. Which deadlines currently apply and what remains open in the reform is tracked on our page on the crypto holding period. How to document acquisition dates and deadlines in a verifiable way is shown in our comparison of crypto tax tools.

What has shifted since Friday's bitcoin price prediction

On Friday midday, our forecast centred on Strategy's share buyback and on October 28 as the company's own date. Two things have shifted since. The price fell from around $81,600 on Friday morning to $80,806 on Saturday morning and $80,693 on Saturday afternoon, a drop of nearly $900 in a day and a half. And the 50-day line, on Friday still the next target above the price, now acts as resistance.

The second point carries more weight this week. A line that supports from below behaves differently from the same line above the price, because sell orders gather where buying took place earlier.

The picture at the funds is similar. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $635.49 million on October 22, the largest daily outflow since June, and a further $137.94 million on October 23, according to data from the provider SoSoValue. Exactly the demand that could cushion a rate move is missing this week.

Our assessment of the rate window

In the view of this newsroom, October 30 is the smaller event for the price and December 9 the larger one. Three pieces of evidence support that. The September minutes consider one further increase before year end likely appropriate, and after Wednesday only the December meeting is left for it. The priced-in probability is around 7 percent for Wednesday and around 73 percent for December, so the scheduled surprise sits in December. And the largest option position for October 30 sits at $95,000, a good 17 percent above the price, which means it expires without effect on the market.

Against that, dates with a low priced-in probability are precisely the ones that trigger the bigger jumps when they turn out differently. Were the increase to come on Wednesday, it would meet positioning that has not accounted for it, and a demand side that is pulling money out this week. This assessment weighs up the situation and is not a recommendation to buy or sell; with crypto assets a total loss remains possible.

Rate window into December: $78,000 remains the test

Until Wednesday evening the situation is open, and the two dates can be prepared for separately. Three steps are enough.

1. Note the levels. $81,939 on the upside, $80,410 and $78,000 on the downside, plus the 50-day line as resistance. If you want to place buy or sell orders there, the terms are in our comparison of the best crypto exchanges.
2. Defuse your leverage. Check liquidation price, funding rate and margin before Wednesday evening; the benchmark is a 5 percent move without liquidation. The venue rules are set out in our comparison of the best perp DEXs.
3. Recalculate the holding period. Before any sale, check the acquisition date and weigh the one-year deadline against the expected price move. The crypto tax tools handle the documentation.

(As of October 24, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee models change; check the terms with the provider before every purchase.)