Bitcoin Price Could Rally to $204,000 as Analyst Reveals Critical $73,500 Support

Bitcoin could rally toward $204,479 as crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto identifies $73,500 as a critical support level for the cryptocurrency. According to EGRAG Crypto, Bitcoin’s historical performance around its 44-week moving average suggests another major bullish expansion could emerge.

The analyst’s November 6 assessment outlines a potential 500-day bullish period if Bitcoin successfully defends this important technical indicator. Bitcoin traded near $76,166 on the chart, placing the cryptocurrency approximately 3.5% above the analyst’s crucial invalidation threshold.

EGRAG believes the current market structure resembles previous bullish cycles, when Bitcoin repeatedly recovered from its 44-week moving average. During the previous cycle, Bitcoin recorded four successful rebounds before its fifth encounter resulted in a breakdown.

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Bitcoin’s 44-Week Moving Average Points to $174,000 and $204,000 Targets

EGRAG’s TradingView chart highlights several historical interactions between Bitcoin’s weekly price movements and its 44-week moving average. Previous rebounds during 2023 and 2024 preceded substantial price increases, supporting the analyst’s expectations for another potential recovery.

Based on these patterns, EGRAG identifies $174,332 at the 1.414 Fibonacci extension as the first major bullish target. The analyst also projects $204,479 at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, representing approximately 168% upside from the chart’s reference price.

Before reaching those targets, Bitcoin must overcome several resistance levels identified in the technical assessment. These include $85,313 and $106,692, corresponding to the 0.5 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, the chart identifies $126,124 as another significant resistance level before Bitcoin could approach the projected targets.

Bitcoin Faces Critical Weekly Close as $73,500 Support Comes Under Pressure

EGRAG identifies $73,500 as the decisive threshold separating the bullish outlook from a potentially weaker market structure. A full-bodied weekly candle closing below this level would seriously undermine expectations for another sustained rally.

The chart also identifies additional downside levels near $69,402 and $57,708 if selling pressure increases. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s current weekly candle remains incomplete, leaving the moving-average test unresolved.

The analyst maintains that defending this historical support could establish conditions for another extended bullish phase. Bitcoin’s weekly closing performance will ultimately determine whether EGRAG’s projected recovery toward $204,479 remains technically viable.