Michigan Senate Race Results: Abdul El-Sayed vs Mike Rogers in the State With a $20 Million Crypto ETF Stake

At 05:01 CET, Abdul El-Sayed led Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race by 74,796 votes, 51.7 to 46.5 percent with 29.4 percent of the expected vote counted, according to NBC News, based on AP data. No winner has been called. Michigan is the only open Democratic-held Senate seat in a state Trump won in 2024, Republicans have not won a Senate race there since 1994, and with more than $243 million in spending it is the most expensive election in the state's history. It also has a direct line to crypto: the state pension fund holds about $20.6 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Michigan Senate race: the key facts

• Status (05:01 CET): El-Sayed 749,998 votes (51.7 percent), Rogers 675,202 (46.5 percent), 29.4 percent counted.
• Governor: Jocelyn Benson leads John James 53.5 to 44.8 percent with 30 percent counted.
• 2024: Donald Trump won Michigan in 2024 with 2,816,636 votes to 2,736,533 for Kamala Harris, a margin of 1.4 points.
• Stand With Crypto: Rogers A (score 99), El-Sayed B (score 74).
• Crypto money: $810,700 from First Principles Digital for Rogers, according to Tech Influence Watch.
• Prediction market: El-Sayed 98.3 percent, Rogers 1.6 percent on Polymarket (05:01 CET).

Michigan election results: read the early numbers with care

By type of vote, El-Sayed against Rogers so far: mail ballots 64 to 35 percent, early in-person votes 58 to 41 percent, Election Day votes 47 to 52 percent. Most of Michigan closed its polls at 02:00 CET, and the four western Upper Peninsula counties followed at 03:00 CET. We estimate about 3,456,000 votes are still out, most of them in Wayne, Macomb, Oakland. County reporting moves unevenly, so a lead at this stage can still shrink or grow.

Michigan 2024 vs 2026: where the counties moved

Wayne County, home to Detroit, went from D+29.0 in the 2024 presidential race to D+52.8 now, with 6 percent counted. Oakland County, north of Detroit, went from D+10.6 in the 2024 presidential race to D+11.6 now, with 65 percent counted. Macomb County, the blue-collar suburbs, went from R+13.7 in the 2024 presidential race to D+0.3 now, with 14 percent counted. Kent County, around Grand Rapids, went from D+5.4 in the 2024 presidential race to D+35.0 now, with 36 percent counted. Across the larger areas with at least half of the count in, the margin moved 1.7 points toward Democrats on average. These figures compare a partial Senate count with a full presidential count, so the final swing can still change in either direction.

County	Trump vs Harris 2024	Rogers vs El-Sayed 2026	Counted
Oakland	D+10.6	D+11.6	65 %
Washtenaw	D+44.4	D+45.4	76 %
Kent	D+5.4	D+35.0	36 %
Livingston	R+23.9	R+22.0	83 %
Macomb	R+13.7	D+0.3	14 %
Eaton	R+3.1	R+0.5	82 %
Ingham	D+29.7	D+25.4	23 %
Ionia	R+31.9	R+24.8	96 %

Who are Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers?

Abdul El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director, won the Democratic primary on 4 August with 48.5 percent after a tight race against Representative Haley Stevens. Mike Rogers, a former member of Congress, was the Republican nominee in 2024 and the only candidate on his party's primary ballot this year. The seat became open because Democrat Gary Peters is not seeking a third term.

Michigan Senate race and crypto: A against B

Neither candidate runs against crypto. Stand With Crypto rates Rogers A, "strongly supports crypto", with a score of 99, and El-Sayed B, "somewhat supports crypto", with a score of 74. Rogers called the GENIUS Act "a major victory, but it's not the final one". El-Sayed answered the group's questionnaire by backing legislation that clarifies oversight between the SEC and CFTC and sets a framework for stablecoins.

The money is less balanced. Tech Influence Watch, formerly Follow the Crypto, lists $810,700 from the crypto committee First Principles Digital for Rogers and no crypto PAC spending for El-Sayed, who drew $77,550 in direct support from Ripple Labs, Microsoft, Google and one other company or their executives. Fairshake and its affiliates appear in Michigan only in House races: Protect Progress with $2,179,605 in Districts 3 and 13, Fairshake itself with $1,019,166 in District 4, and Defend American Jobs with $662,448 in Districts 4 and 9.

Michigan pension fund: $20.6 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

The State of Michigan Retirement System reported to the SEC on 27 October that it held 300,000 shares of the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF worth $8.31 million, 37,418 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF worth $2.42 million and 460,000 shares of the Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF worth $9.86 million on 30 September. Together that is about $20.6 million out of $22.6 billion in reported holdings, or 0.09 percent, and the share counts are unchanged from June. The state's Bitcoin reserve bill, HB 4087, has not been voted on: its last step was a move to another House committee on 19 March 2026.

Michigan governor race and the recount rules

Jocelyn Benson leads John James 53.5 to 44.8 percent with 30 percent counted. Democrat Gretchen Whitmer cannot run for a third term, and Jocelyn Benson, the secretary of state, faces Representative John James, who has Trump's endorsement. If a statewide race ends within 0.1 percent, Michigan recounts automatically, and the Board of State Canvassers has to certify by 23 November, according to a certification guide by Protect Democracy.

Why Michigan matters for the Senate majority

Republicans went into the night with 53 seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four for the majority, and losing Michigan would raise that number to five. At 05:01 CET, NBC News showed 48 Senate seats for Democrats and 39 for Republicans, counting seats not up for election, and a net change of +3 for Democrats. For crypto the seat counts twice: the CLARITY Act failed 49 to 50 on 15 September and needs 60 votes, so the next attempt depends on Democrats willing to deal. Follow it in our CLARITY Act explainer, and find all calls in our midterm results live ticker. More from the states: crypto's $50 million bet against Sherrod Brown and Texas and the Bitcoin reserve.

What Polymarket says about Michigan

Traders put El-Sayed at 98.3 percent and Rogers at 1.6 percent at 05:01 CET, on a market with $12.0 million in volume. That shows what the market expects and is no forecast from us; prediction markets moved quickly tonight and can overreact to early counts. If you hold coins through a week like this, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment advice.