Bitcoin price prediction: lowest level since August, will the $72,000 zone hold?

Bitcoin costs around $73,630 on Tuesday evening, roughly €65,960. On the Kraken exchange the price fell as low as $72,585 during the day, its lowest level since August 20. Whether the range between $72,000 and $75,000 holds depends on three things: the 200-day moving average at around $73,150, the outflows from the US funds and whether the US Federal Reserve raises rates in December.

What is established: US consumer prices rose more than expected in October, long positions worth around $178 million were forcibly closed within an hour, and the spot ETFs lost money on four of the five trading days of the previous week. Our assessment follows further down: the zone holds only if the fund outflows dry up, and so far there is no sign of that. Where the price could head over the coming months is covered in our bitcoin price prediction.

Bitcoin back at its August 20 level: the autumn rally has been wiped out

To understand why the area around $73,000 in particular is getting so much attention, you have to go back almost three months. On August 19, bitcoin's low on Kraken was still $64,116. Two days later the daily close was $73,001, a jump of almost 14 percent in 48 hours. Since August 21 the price had not dropped below that mark on a single day, until this Tuesday.

Arithmetically, the entire late-summer rise has thus been given back. The 30-day high was $84,840, and the price is now a good 13 percent below it. It is around 42 percent short of the record high of $126,080 from October 6, 2025. Over seven days the price is down 5.3 percent, over 30 days 12.2 percent, both according to CoinGecko data.

The move did not come out of nowhere. On Monday bitcoin had still closed at $75,253. In our bitcoin price prediction of November 9, the price stood just below the average of $75,451 at which Strategy bought its holdings. That level has not been reclaimed since. New additions are the inflation report and a daily low that, for the first time since late summer, was below the 200-day moving average.

US inflation in October: 0.4 percent instead of 0.3 percent

The trigger for Tuesday afternoon's decline was the US consumer price index. Prices rose 0.4 percent month on month in October against an expected 0.3 percent. The core rate excluding energy and food rose 0.3 percent, against a forecast of 0.2 percent. The core rate has thus been running at this pace since August, as CoinMarketCap sums up.

Fed governor Christopher Waller had said beforehand that with a core rate like this, a 50 basis point hike in December should also be considered. The Fed's next rate decision is on December 9. For bitcoin that is an unfavourable backdrop: higher rates make safe assets such as US Treasuries more attractive and raise the cost of the credit used for leverage on the futures markets.

A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. 50 basis points therefore equal half a percentage point, a step the Fed takes only under clear pressure to act.

Liquidations: $178 million in long positions in one hour

How fragile the market was became clear in the hour after the release. According to CoinGlass data, bets on rising prices worth around $178 million were forcibly closed during that time. A liquidation happens when the collateral posted for a leveraged trade is no longer sufficient: the exchange then sells the position itself, and that sale pushes the price down further.

The funding rate on perpetual futures at Deribit has been only just above zero for a week, most recently at around 0.004 percent per eight hours. Long positions are thus paying hardly any premium. The futures market is no longer overheated, and part of the leverage has already been squeezed out of the market. Analytics firm Glassnode describes the situation in similar terms: selling from the ETFs and nervous short-term holders are weighing on the price, but part of the leverage has already been flushed out.

ETF outflows: $1.28 billion in one week

The main reason recoveries are fizzling out quickly at the moment lies with the US spot ETFs. In the previous week the funds lost a net $1.282 billion according to SoSoValue data, the largest weekly outflow since the end of June. Four of the five trading days were negative. Monday added a further $201 million in outflows, $213 million of it from BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone, while smaller funds took in a little.

Since the start of the year the funds thus show a balance of minus $914 million. As recently as September 22 the annual tally had turned positive, after more than $6 billion of inflows since the start of August, CoinDesk reports. In each of the two previous years the funds had collected more than $20 billion. This matters for the price because a fund facing outflows has to sell real bitcoin: every dollar that leaves the ETF shows up as a sell order on the spot market.

Investors in Germany who use a securities account rather than a crypto exchange will find the alternatives to the US funds in our overview of crypto ETFs and ETNs in Germany. There, however, the flat-rate withholding tax applies, not the holding period.

The 200-day moving average at $73,150: what two daily closes mean

The 200-day moving average is the average of the closing prices of the last 200 trading days. Many funds and traders use it as the line between an uptrend and a downtrend. According to our calculation from the daily closes on Kraken, it currently stands at $73,156. The 100-day average runs at $77,416 and the 50-day average at $81,626. Bitcoin is thus trading below two of the three averages and only just above the third.

Axel Rudolph, an analyst at broker IG, sets a clear condition: if bitcoin closes below the 200-day moving average on two consecutive days, a further wave of selling is likely. His next downside target is the April low at around $70,500. On Kraken it was $70,518 on April 12. Tuesday's daily close falls at midnight UTC, 1 a.m. German time, and is thus the first of the two test days.

James Check of the analytics service Checkonchain draws the zone a little wider: the range between $75,000 and $72,000 is decisive for buyers if the correction is to remain healthy. Both assessments agree: below $72,000 the range would be broken to the downside, above $75,000 Tuesday's drop would be recovered.

Options on Deribit: where investors are hedging against a crash

The options market is worth a second look because it shows where large investors want to limit their losses. A put option is the right to sell bitcoin at a fixed price. The put acts like insurance: if the price falls below that level, the put offsets the loss.

For the monthly expiry on November 27, our analysis on Tuesday evening shows open calls on Deribit covering 40,737 bitcoin and puts covering 36,468 bitcoin, a ratio of 0.9. The largest put holdings are concentrated at $75,000 with around 3,150 bitcoin, at $72,000 with around 2,790 and at $70,000 with around 2,700 bitcoin. The strike price at which option buyers' holdings are worth least in total, known as max pain, is $79,000.

Closer in, the weekly expiry falls on Friday, November 13. There, calls clearly dominate with 20,708 bitcoin against 12,435 bitcoin in puts, and the largest single position is calls at $81,000. These calls are currently far out of the money and expire worthless if the price is unchanged. Implied volatility, measured by the Deribit DVOL index, is at 40 points, the same level as the previous week. The options market is therefore not showing panic, but it is showing a clear line of defence at $72,000 and $70,000.

Crypto market sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 32

The Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me stands at 32 points on Tuesday, in fear territory. On November 7 it had fallen as low as 25, the threshold to extreme fear. It has recovered slightly since then, even though the price has continued to slide. The index combines price volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment and bitcoin's share of the overall market into a single figure from 0 to 100.

A low reading does not automatically mean a bottom. The index measures today's mood; it says nothing about where buyers are actually waiting. For that, fund flows and hedging on the options market are the more reliable measures.

Scenarios for bitcoin up to the Fed meeting on December 9

Two paths that run up to the rate decision can be derived from the figures. In the first case, bitcoin closes above $73,150 on Tuesday and Wednesday, ETF outflows shrink and the price works its way back to $75,000. Above that lie Strategy's cost basis at $75,451 and the 100-day average at $77,416. A rise towards $79,000 by the monthly expiry would then be conceivable, but only after $75,000 has been reclaimed.

In the second case, two closes below the 200-day moving average follow. The put holdings at $72,000 and $70,000 and the April low at $70,518 then come into view. A break of this area would open the way towards the June lows, which lay between $57,700 and $59,100. Which path prevails depends less on the chart line itself than on the daily ETF figures, which are published every morning for the previous day.

Our view on the $72,000 zone

Our view: the zone between $72,000 and $75,000 should be taken seriously, but it stands on weaker footing than in August. Back then, inflows of more than $6 billion into the ETFs drove the price through this area. Today money is flowing out of the same funds again, $1.28 billion in the previous week alone. In favour of the zone holding is that leverage has largely left the market and visible hedging has built up on the options market at $72,000 and $70,000. Against it is that the rate side, with a possible hike in December, is working against bitcoin. As long as the funds are net sellers, we expect a test of $70,500 rather than a quick return above $75,000. This assessment is not a recommendation to buy or sell; a total loss is possible with cryptocurrencies.

Holding period and loss offsetting: the position for investors in Germany

For investors in Germany, the price drop is also a tax question. Gains on bitcoin you have held for more than a year remain tax-free as a private disposal under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act. The current state of the political debate about abolishing this rule is tracked on our page on the crypto holding period. Within the holding period, an exemption limit of €1,000 a year applies to all private disposal gains combined.

Anyone who bought in August or September at prices above $73,000 is currently at a loss. A sale within the holding period makes this loss usable for tax purposes: it can be offset against gains from other private disposals in the same year or carried forward to later years. For that, every transaction must be documented with date and price. Anyone trading across several exchanges can save the manual work with one of the crypto tax tools in our comparison.

Leveraged positions are especially risky in a market that has seen $178 million in long liquidations in one hour. If you trade bitcoin with leverage, check your liquidation price before every key date such as December 9 and trade only with regulated providers. Our overview of crypto brokers shows which providers operate with a licence in Germany.

Bitcoin below the 200-day moving average: only above $75,000 does the picture turn

1. Set your levels: Create price alerts at $75,000 and at $72,000. Many exchanges in our crypto exchange comparison offer such notifications.
2. Document losses: Check which of your purchases are still within the one-year holding period and are in the red. A tax tool works this out for you across all accounts.
3. Limit leverage: Until the Fed meeting on December 9, hold positions with no or only low leverage and use a regulated provider from the broker comparison.

(As of November 10, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)