Polymarket marketFinal

Polymarket Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 5 odds

On Polymarket, 80-81°F closed at 30%. Trading has closed; the result settles the contracts. A contract that closed at 30¢ pays $1 if that outcome is the result, and nothing if not. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.

Polymarket · final prices · updated

76-77°F8%
78-79°F27%
80-81°F30%
82-83°F22%
84-85°F11%

All 11 outcomes, in order ↓

Also priced on Kalshi: 4 questions compared ↓

$13K
24h volume on Polymarket
$14K
total volume on Polymarket
0
open of 11 outcomes
Final
trading closed

Polymarket odds on every outcome

Polymarket odds on each outcome of Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 5
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
75°F or below2%2¢$412
76-77°F8%8¢$1K
78-79°F27%27¢$3K
80-81°F30%30¢$1K
82-83°F compare 22%22¢$913
84-85°F compare 11%11¢$792
86-87°F compare 5%5¢$2K
88-89°F compare 2%2¢$2K
90-91°F<1%<1¢$923
92-93°F<1%<1¢$185
Show 1 more outcome
Polymarket odds on each outcome of Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 5
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
94°F or higher<1%<1¢$180

Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 2¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions

The same questions on both venues. Trading has ended; these are the last prices each venue quoted.

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on October 5?

Last prices for Yes: Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on October 5? by venue, and what each venue settled on
VenueYes last priceResult
Polymarket22¢Still open on this venue
Kalshi23¢Still open on this venue
Last price

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on October 5?

Last prices for Yes: Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on October 5? by venue, and what each venue settled on
VenueYes last priceResult
Polymarket11¢Still open on this venue
Kalshi14¢Still open on this venue
Last price

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on October 5?

Last prices for Yes: Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on October 5? by venue, and what each venue settled on
VenueYes last priceResult
Polymarket5¢Still open on this venue
Kalshi6¢Still open on this venue
Last price

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on October 5?

Last prices for Yes: Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on October 5? by venue, and what each venue settled on
VenueYes last priceResult
Polymarket2¢Still open on this venue
Kalshi4¢Still open on this venue
Last price

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · 80-81°F
30%▲ 11.0 pts since Oct 3
Yes price
Oct 317% – 32% scaleOct 5

Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market settled

Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.

Show the full rules

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo

This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Scheduled resolution: Oct 5, 2026.

Common questions

What are the Polymarket odds on Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 5?

On Polymarket, 80-81°F closed at 30%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

How does this market resolve?

By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Is this question on Kalshi too?

Yes. The 4 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.

Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?

A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.