Polymarket Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 5 odds
On Polymarket, 80-81°F closed at 30%. Trading has closed; the result settles the contracts. A contract that closed at 30¢ pays $1 if that outcome is the result, and nothing if not. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Polymarket · final prices · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 4 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75°F or below | 2% | 2¢ | $412 |
| 76-77°F | 8% | 8¢ | $1K |
| 78-79°F | 27% | 27¢ | $3K |
| 80-81°F | 30% | 30¢ | $1K |
| 82-83°F compare | 22% | 22¢ | $913 |
| 84-85°F compare | 11% | 11¢ | $792 |
| 86-87°F compare | 5% | 5¢ | $2K |
| 88-89°F compare | 2% | 2¢ | $2K |
| 90-91°F | <1% | <1¢ | $923 |
| 92-93°F | <1% | <1¢ | $185 |
Show 1 more outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94°F or higher | <1% | <1¢ | $180 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 2¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. Trading has ended; these are the last prices each venue quoted.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on October 5?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 22¢ | Still open on this venue |
| Kalshi | 23¢ | Still open on this venue |
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on October 5?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11¢ | Still open on this venue |
| Kalshi | 14¢ | Still open on this venue |
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on October 5?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5¢ | Still open on this venue |
| Kalshi | 6¢ | Still open on this venue |
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on October 5?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2¢ | Still open on this venue |
| Kalshi | 4¢ | Still open on this venue |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market settled
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Oct '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 5, 2026.
More climate & weather markets
Where will it rain on Oct 5, 2026?
Kalshi · resolves Oct 6, 2026
$343K in 24h on Kalshi
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 5, 2026
Kalshi · resolves Oct 6, 2026
$132K in 24h on Kalshi
Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 5, 2026
Kalshi · resolves Oct 6, 2026
$31K in 24h on Kalshi
Hurricane Fay category
Kalshi · resolves Dec 1, 2026
$28K in 24h on Kalshi
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Mar 1, 2027
$28K in 24h on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Chicago on Oct 5, 2026
Kalshi · resolves Oct 6, 2026
$25K in 24h on Kalshi
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 5?
On Polymarket, 80-81°F closed at 30%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. The 4 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.
