Weather prediction markets and climate odds
Weather prediction markets price tomorrow's high in major cities, where it rains and how strong a hurricane gets. 556 weather and climate questions are trading on Polymarket and Kalshi, led by “Where will it rain on Oct 5, 2026?”. Most settle within a day or two, on official station data. The busiest are listed first.
Updated
Most traded climate & weather markets
Kalshi · resolves Oct 6, 2026
Where will it rain on Oct 5, 2026?
Kalshi · resolves Oct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 5, 2026
Kalshi · resolves Dec 1, 2026
Hurricane Fay category
Climate & Weather markets priced on both venues
The busiest climate & weather markets both venues list. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Chance of Yes
2¢ cheaper on KalshiResolves Mar 1, 2027
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on October 5?
Chance of Yes
2¢ cheaper on PolymarketResolves Oct 5, 2026
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on October 5?
Chance of Yes
2¢ cheaper on PolymarketResolves Oct 5, 2026
Every climate & weather market, priced
Chance is the favourite's price on a board of outcomes, the favoured side of a match, or the named market's Yes price, on its venue.
Climate & Weather markets closing this week
Polymarket or Kalshi for weather?
Polymarket lists 355 open weather and climate events right now, and Kalshi lists 201.
Kalshi runs daily highs for US cities and rain markets. Polymarket weather covers cities worldwide.
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated, via Polymarket US
- You fund with
- Debit card, ACH, wire in the US; crypto, held as pUSD (Polygon) abroad
- Open climate & weather markets
- 355 markets
- Fees
- Polymarket's fees
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated exchange
- You fund with
- ACH, RTP, debit card and 7 more
- Open climate & weather markets
- 201 markets
- Fees
- Kalshi's fees
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What weather markets you can trade
Daily temperature markets lead. Each asks for a city's high on one day, with a contract for each band.
- The day's high temperature in a city, in bands
- Whether it rains in a city on a day
- A hurricane's peak category or landfall
- Monthly and yearly temperature records
What moves weather odds
Forecast updates move these markets through the day. By the afternoon, most daily markets are nearly settled.
Each market settles on the weather station its rules name. That station can read differently from your phone's app.
Other categories
Common questions
What are weather prediction markets?
Markets on the weather, such as a city's high tomorrow. Each band is a contract that pays $1 if the reading lands in it.
Which data settles a weather market?
The official station reading the rules name, often a report issued the next morning.
Does Polymarket have weather markets?
Yes. Polymarket weather lists daily highs for cities around the world, alongside Kalshi's US city markets.
Can I trade weather markets in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US or Kalshi. Check your state for any action against specific contracts.