Weather prediction markets and climate odds
Weather prediction markets price tomorrow's high in major cities, where it rains and hurricane strength. 522 weather and climate questions are trading on Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi, led by “Where will it rain on Oct 25, 2026?”. Most settle within a day or two, on official station data. The busiest are listed first.
Updated
Most traded climate & weather markets
Kalshi · resolves Oct 26, 2026
Where will it rain on Oct 25, 2026?
Kalshi · resolves Oct 26, 2026
Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 25, 2026
Kalshi · resolves Oct 26, 2026
Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 25, 2026
Climate & Weather markets priced on both venues
The busiest climate & weather markets two or more venues list. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 26?
Chance of Yes
23¢ cheaper on KalshiResolves Oct 26, 2026
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 26?
Chance of Yes
4¢ cheaper on KalshiResolves Oct 26, 2026
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 26?
Chance of Yes
28¢ cheaper on PolymarketResolves Oct 26, 2026
Every climate & weather market, priced
Chance is the favourite's price on a board of outcomes, the favoured side of a match, or the named market's Yes price, on its venue.
Climate & Weather markets closing this week
Polymarket or Kalshi for weather?
Open weather and climate events right now: 262 on Polymarket, 0 on Polymarket US and 260 on Kalshi.
Kalshi runs daily highs for US cities and rain markets. Polymarket weather covers cities worldwide.
- Regulated
- International exchange; US residents trade on Polymarket US
- You fund with
- Crypto, held as pUSD (Polygon)
- Open climate & weather markets
- 262 markets
- Fees
- Polymarket's fees
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated exchange (QCX LLC)
- You fund with
- Debit card, ACH, wire
- Open climate & weather markets
- 0 markets
- Fees
- Polymarket US's fees
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated exchange
- You fund with
- ACH, RTP, debit card and 7 more
- Open climate & weather markets
- 260 markets
- Fees
- Kalshi's fees
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What weather markets you can trade
Daily temperature markets lead. Each asks for a city's high on one day, with a contract for each band.
- The day's high temperature in a city, in bands
- Whether it rains in a city on a day
- A hurricane's peak category or landfall
- Monthly and yearly temperature records
What moves weather odds
Forecast updates move these markets through the day. By the afternoon, most daily markets are nearly settled.
Each market settles on the weather station its rules name. That station can read differently from your phone's app.
More climate & weather markets
Other categories
Common questions
What are weather prediction markets?
Markets on the weather, such as a city's high tomorrow. Each band is a contract that pays $1 if the reading lands in it.
Which data settles a weather market?
The official station reading the rules name, often a report issued the next morning.
Does Polymarket have weather markets?
Yes. Polymarket weather lists daily highs for cities around the world, alongside Kalshi's US city markets.
Can I trade weather markets in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US or Kalshi. Check your state for any action against specific contracts.