What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 5, 2026? Kalshi odds
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Magnitude of at least 5.4, is at 54%. The market settles by Oct 5, 2026, and $4K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 54¢ reads as a 54% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: compare both
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnitude of at least 5.4 | 54% | 54¢ | $652 | Trade |
| Magnitude of at least 5.6 compare | 28% | 28¢ | $118 | Trade |
| Magnitude of at least 5.8 | 23% | 23¢ | $479 | Trade |
| Magnitude of at least 6.0 compare | 15% | 15¢ | $131 | Trade |
| Magnitude of at least 6.2 | 9% | 9¢ | $6 | Trade |
| Magnitude of at least 6.4 | 6% | 6¢ | $203 | Trade |
| Magnitude of at least 6.6 | 5% | 5¢ | $41 | Trade |
| Magnitude of at least 6.8 | 3% | 3¢ | $161 | Trade |
| Magnitude of at least 7.0 | 4% | 4¢ | $162 | Trade |
| Magnitude of at least 5.2Final | 99% | 99¢ | $2K |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 54¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 49¢ | 51¢ | 1.2¢ | $171 | $1K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 28¢cheapest to buy | 72¢ | 1.4¢ | $118 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 5, 2026?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Oct 5, 2026.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 54¢ for Magnitude of at least 5.4 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on “What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 5, 2026?”?
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Magnitude of at least 5.4, is at 54%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.