Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Odds and prices
"Will 2026 be the hottest year on record" is priced at 87% on Polymarket and 80% on Kalshi, 7 points apart: the venues disagree, so 83% is their average, not a consensus. The contract settles by Mar 1, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 87¢ | 13¢ | free | $2K | $25K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 80¢cheapest to buy | 21¢ | 1.1¢ | $30 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to…
The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 26?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 17% · $4K 24h volume, both venues
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 26?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 58% · $3K 24h volume, both venues
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 26?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 24% · $3K 24h volume, both venues
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 5% · $330 24h volume, both venues
Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation stay above 1,038 ft?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 38% · $197 24h volume, both venues
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ at execution.
Common questions
What are the odds on "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record"?
The venues disagree: 87% on Polymarket and 80% on Kalshi. The 83% shown is their average; the gap often comes from settlement rules worded differently, compared on this page.
Where can I trade "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.