Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026: odds and prices
Markets price "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026" at 5%, with 2 venues quoting at the same price. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5¢ | 95¢ | 0.2¢ | $1K | $5K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 5¢ | 95¢ | 0.3¢ | $361 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
"Crypto market structure legislation" refers to any legislation that does all of the following:
1. Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely for stablecoins); 2. Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; 3. Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.
Examples of qualifying legislation include the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025" (H.R.3633) and "The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act" (FIT21).
The following would not qualify:
- Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; - Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; - Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); - Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; - Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; - Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules; - The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation); - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific);
Qualifying legislation may be enacted through passage by the United States House of Representatives and Senate and subsequent signature by the United States President, or through other formal means which constitute enactment into United States Federal law (e.g., veto override).
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States Congress and the United States President and a consensus of credible reporting.
If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following: Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications. The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts); Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress; Bills that are vetoed and not overridden; State legislation of any kind Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion: The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, if passed by both chambers and signed into law; The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), if passed by both chambers and signed into law; Any omnibus bill that includes comprehensive crypto market structure provisions as described above. Examples that would NOT meet the Payout Criterion: The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation); The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific); A bill that passes the House but not the Senate; An executive order directing agencies to study crypto regulation.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 5% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.