Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026" at 50%, with 2 venues quoting within 1 point of each other. The contract settles by Jan 1, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi. Permanent page: Bitcoin price odds
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 51¢ | 49¢ | 1.7¢ | $371 | $16K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 50¢cheapest to buy | 50¢ | 1.7¢ | $294 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
If Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The performance of gold will be determined by using ICE Data Service's prices provided by a variety of financial institutions. The performance of Bitcoin will be determined by using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 50% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.