Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Odds and prices
"Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026" is priced at 1% on Polymarket and 2% on Kalshi, where Kalshi has no live quote: the venues disagree, so 2% is their average, not a consensus. The contract settles by Jan 1, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi. Permanent page: Bitcoin price odds
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 1¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | $4K | $164K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 2¢ | 98¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High"…
Full settlement wording
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
If a qualifying one-minute average of the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) is above $120,000 after issuance at Nov 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM EST, then the market…
The source is CF Benchmarks. Each eligible minute after issuance and before the deadline is evaluated separately: discard the highest 20% and lowest 20% of BRTI observations in that minute and average the remaining 60%. The qualifying average must be strictly greater than the threshold; equality does not qualify. A qualifying minute counts even if Bitcoin subsequently falls below the threshold. Price movements before issuance do not count. This is not a single-trade spot-price touch or the price only at the deadline. Last trading is the earlier of the first 10:00 AM ET following a qualifying occurrence or the stated deadline. Under the effective BTCMINMAX filing, expiration is the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following a qualifying occurrence, the stated deadline, the first 10:00 AM ET after the deadline that data is available, or one month after the selected date. If no data is available on the Expiration Date at the Expiration Time, the market resolves to No. Revisions after expiration are disregarded. The full filed contract terms govern contingencies. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with CF Benchmarks. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 10% · $186K 24h volume, both venues
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Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 21% · $4K 24h volume, both venues
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026"?
The venues disagree: 1% on Polymarket and 2% on Kalshi. The 2% shown is their average; the gap often comes from settlement rules worded differently, compared on this page.
Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.